PAF Jets in Flights over North Waziristan

[muse]

Incredible, BVR, fighter formations - to bring down a bird flying 280kn at 7000ft?

Take it easy, the U.S. are not 10 feet tall - and this ship is not from some movie - keep it simple announce it to the world that you will no longer allow these flights - and if they penetrate the airspace then shoot them down - if the U.S then sends them over with a escort, of fighters employ what you have, that what they are there for.

And if the U.S think thats a problem in the air what will they make of the response on the ground?

 

[x_man]

^^^my question is:--> when the US/Nato predators / UAV's are flying (~7-10,000 ft), are US/NATO forces providing top-cover / CAPs for these assets. if the answer is yes, then these a/c are BVR capable whilist any PAF a/c flying recce or CAP will be otherwise!
then what?

Sir, CAP is provided to UAVs once they have any threat to be intercepted...At any time, many UAVs are flying to cover a large area and since they never faced any air-air threat either from Afghanistan or Pakistan earlier, so a CAP was never provided....

However, since PAF has also started to fly in the area, so I guess that some air support will be there from US/NATO forces...But it’s all very tricky....

PAF jets will never cross international border to hunt a UAV..

PAF will only be allowed to intercept UAVs that are entering our airspace...

US/NATO fighters will not be allowed ( I suppose..) to fire at any PAF fighter that is flying within its own territory...

If PAF fires at a UAV, whose wreckage falls across IB, it will be in trouble..

If PAF fires at a UAV, whose wreckage falls within our side, it will still create a lot of stir...

If NATO/US shoots any PAF jet within Pakistan’s border, it will be declaration of an open offensive and things might go in any direction...may be from bad to worst...

Where a shooting down of an American UAV might bring lot of jubilation amongst masses, I am afraid that it will bring lot bigger problems too...

I don’t want to sound soft, but I do wish that a situation never arises where a PAF jet has to shoot the bugger down....However, PAF should continue to provide optimum deterrence and US should also respect our borders and public sentiment...They should realise that in this war if they really want to achieve some objectives on the ground, they have to act as our partners instead of our bosses...

PAF has to play by the rules of engagements and any trigger happy dude can push us thicker into the soup….

However, If situation demands so and ROEs allow, I would like to see PAF getting one of those UAVs , they have done it before, hope they can do it again...

 

[shehbazi2001]

But what about SD-10? Cant mirages with rose upgrades be made capable to fire SD-10? Also by this time i think PAF should have around 8 JF-17s with them. Time to put them to the test.

Personally I dont know where does SD-10 stand right now............Someone with solid information can tell us..............but listening to Air Chief Interview, new F-16Cs shall enter production by early 2010.........its too late.......

I think on emergency basis, we need to fit MICA BVRs on ROSE Mirages of at least one squadron...........

 

[IceCold]

Personally I dont know where does SD-10 stand right now............Someone with solid information can tell us..............but listening to Air Chief Interview, new F-16Cs shall enter production by early 2010.........its too late.......

I think on emergency basis, we need to fit MICA BVRs on ROSE Mirages of at least one squadron...........

Has MICA being inducted within the PAF? I thought negotiations were going on for the RC-400 radar along with MICA for the JF-17. But with things turning from bad to worse, would france still sell them to pakistan considering the US pressure.

 

[IceCold]

Sir, CAP is provided to UAVs once they have any threat to be intercepted...At any time, many UAVs are flying to cover a large area and since they never faced any air-air threat either from Afghanistan or Pakistan earlier, so a CAP was never provided....

However, since PAF has also started to fly in the area, so I guess that some air support will be there from US/NATO forces...But it’s all very tricky....

PAF jets will never cross international border to hunt a UAV..

PAF will only be allowed to intercept UAVs that are entering our airspace...

US/NATO fighters will not be allowed ( I suppose..) to fire at any PAF fighter that is flying within its own territory...

If PAF fires at a UAV, whose wreckage falls across IB, it will be in trouble..

If PAF fires at a UAV, whose wreckage falls within our side, it will still create a lot of stir...

If NATO/US shoots any PAF jet within Pakistan’s border, it will be declaration of an open offensive and things might go in any direction...may be from bad to worst...

Where a shooting down of an American UAV might bring lot of jubilation amongst masses, I am afraid that it will bring lot bigger problems too...

I don’t want to sound soft, but I do wish that a situation never arises where a PAF jet has to shoot the bugger down....However, PAF should continue to provide optimum deterrence and US should also respect our borders and public sentiment...They should realise that in this war if they really want to achieve some objectives on the ground, they have to act as our partners instead of our bosses...

PAF has to play by the rules of engagements and any trigger happy dude can push us thicker into the soup….

However, If situation demands so and ROEs allow, I would like to see PAF getting one of those UAVs , they have done it before, hope they can do it again...

Sir if the engagement does take place will it matter on whos side the wreckage falls specially when the world is aware about who is violating whos air space? Because in any case irrespective of where the wreckage falls both sides will accuse each other of initiating the attack and preserving one self as the defender. Also sir if you remember our navy plane that was shot down by the indians, its wreckage felt into the Pakistani side of the border, and as documented by the video, indians flew in and took some of that wreckage to show it as it felt in their territory and we lost the case in the international court. So i dont see as to how PAF will be in trouble other then the fact that we will get involved directly into the conflict with the US.

On a side note, not too many airports are there in the afghanistan to house the F-15s and F-18s have to take off from the AC, can there be a possibility if the hosility begins, that we hit these bases with our cruise missiles and take them out before the F-15s could take off. It will be like a pre empitive strike?

 

[batmannow]

Realy a very great post, but need more indepth.. anlaysis?
Also, wana see peopl's like Blian2 sir, putting inputs here.

 

[Munir]

Sir if the engagement does take place will it matter on whos side the wreckage falls specially when the world is aware about who is violating whos air space? Because in any case irrespective of where the wreckage falls both sides will accuse each other of initiating the attack and preserving one self as the defender. Also sir if you remember our navy plane that was shot down by the indians, its wreckage felt into the Pakistani side of the border, and as documented by the video, indians flew in and took some of that wreckage to show it as it felt in their territory and we lost the case in the international court. So i dont see as to how PAF will be in trouble other then the fact that we will get involved directly into the conflict with the US.

On a side note, not too many airports are there in the afghanistan to house the F-15s and F-18s have to take off from the AC, can there be a possibility if the hosility begins, that we hit these bases with our cruise missiles and take them out before the F-15s could take off. It will be like a pre empitive strike?

These guys launched operations tens of milies into Pakistan. Shot dead women and children and we should be terrified if parts of the UAV fall into Afghanistan? I agree. The next time they lauch big ground attack we should send their landingstrips a present.

 

[T-Rex]

These guys launched operations tens of milies into Pakistan. Shot dead women and children and we should be terrified if parts of the UAV fall into Afghanistan? I agree. The next time they lauch big ground attack we should send their landingstrips a present.

Some people can afford to remain cool for it is not their wives or children, the victims belong to other families. I wonder if they could remain so cool if their families had been hit by a missile from a UAV.

 

[khanz]

it's about time ! we should have had PAF jets guarding the frontier areas ever since the first incursion.

 

[fatman17]

Sir if the engagement does take place will it matter on whos side the wreckage falls specially when the world is aware about who is violating whos air space? Because in any case irrespective of where the wreckage falls both sides will accuse each other of initiating the attack and preserving one self as the defender. Also sir if you remember our navy plane that was shot down by the indians, its wreckage felt into the Pakistani side of the border, and as documented by the video, indians flew in and took some of that wreckage to show it as it felt in their territory and we lost the case in the international court. So i dont see as to how PAF will be in trouble other then the fact that we will get involved directly into the conflict with the US.

On a side note, not too many airports are there in the afghanistan to house the F-15s and F-18s have to take off from the AC, can there be a possibility if the hosility begins, that we hit these bases with our cruise missiles and take them out before the F-15s could take off. It will be like a pre empitive strike?

baghram and kandahar airbases are fully capable of handling any type of a/c.
F-16s, Tornado's, Rafale's, Etendard's and Mirages.

 

[Kharian_Beast]

We should not be afraid of shooting down a toy robot in the sky if it is raining missiles on innocent people below while on our side of the fence. They think that hundreds of foreign civilians equals 1 American soldier, they have no value for anyone's life and will only become bolder when they see the half azzed stance from Pakistan.

We need our PAF on high alert and on routine patrols, this is not the time anymore to joke. The US is quite obviously guaging reactions and formulating how to proceed to phase 2, as according to them, limited strikes on our soil is only phase 1 and have not said anything to clear the air with us.

And as far as I am concerned no member of the PAF is a "trigger happy" nut who will push us deeper into the proverbial soup, it is inaction and gullibility that will do that. Pilots are more than capable of determining if the situation requires use of firepower or not, as this professionalism has already been displayed.

I can't believe the majority consensus is that shooting a flying robot and saving lives is going to provoke a war. Did it occur to America that violating borders could provoke a response? Right now our border requires manpower, we need to deploy at least 75,000-100,000 additional troops onto the border with Afghanistan as well as at least 100,000 paramilitary forces and stop concentrating all of our force projection on India, as they don't have the balls to attack anyone at this time. We need to show that crossing our border is like entering the pits of hell, no army should ever consider this as an option.

 

[x_man]

.......So i dont see as to how PAF will be in trouble other then the fact that we will get involved directly into the conflict with the US...

I think you answered it yourself. To start with: isn’t it a big enough trouble in itself? They are already looking for excuses, why to provide them?

As far as the ROEs, if you remember that similar rules were followed during 80s ...While the Afghani/Soviet jets were pounding on Pakistani villages, same rules regarding wreckage existed...

All the Afghan fighters that were shot down, were on our side....Many of their fighters that were actually locked by AIM-9L were let go because of proximity of border and you might not know that few were not even claimed because it was suspected that they fell across.....Official figures differ from the actual one...

As I am not aware of the existing ROEs but considering the previous situation, I will assume that same ROEs are followed this time too...

I can sense in the air that few members craving for some action, well it’s beyond my comprehension that how this is going to help Pakistan in any way….

Just look at the present state of affairs....Its a political mess, leadership is impotent , economy is crippled , gen public is in state of turmoil with deprived of basic facilities....there is shortage of every possible civic facility i.e. from food to water to electricity to national morale and somebody is suggesting to either launch a pre-emptive strikes on Americans or knock their infrastructure out.....

Last time we went for some action with a very similar political mess , wide distrust and arrogance, we lost our half of the country......

I think we should give peace a chance and try to negotiate the terms on the table instead on the front….

Anyone who still thinks that peace hurts or sucks: Try a War...

 

[blain2]

Logic would tell us to tone the rhetoric down. We need to talk to the Americans and make every effort to make them understand the long term implications of such actions. I think things will be crazy for some months until the US elections take place.

Realistically speaking, taking on the US is not in Pakistan's interest. PAF may not even be able to get away with the RoEs refined in the 80s as the US would ensure that Pakistan is not impeding their so-called "hunt" for Taliban by shooting down their UAV/UCAVs. Whereas our right to defend ourselves with these RoEs against the Soviet VVS and Afghan Air Force was backed up somewhat tacitly by US and Western support, this time around there are no takers. The US is using the inflow of people from Pakistan into Afghanistan as the reason for going after areas inside of Pakistan. Realistically the only option available to Pakistan is to stop the flow of people into Afghanistan. How that is to be done and by whom remains to be seen. However, in the absence of such an arrangement, the US strikes will continue (with tacit approval of the GoP). Not a good situation to be in for the people of Pakistan but it seems this is how dirty politics are being played out currently.

PAF in its current or near future state (even the 2015 state) would be hurt big time if it went up against the US. Combined, the Carrier based and Afghan based USAF/USN and USMC assets in the theater outnumber the PAF in terms of quality and quantity and this is not even counting the other NATO air elements. I am not even sure why I am going through this analysis. In any scenario, Pakistan cannot defend her airspace. This situation reminds me of the No-fly zones established over Iraq. USAF would have the freedom of operations with impunity if this trend carries on. The only way out is to convince the USG through deft diplomacy that these measures not only hurt Pakistan but will also seriously undermine US interests in the region over the long haul.

Pakistan's rethink of the Afghan strategy is a given.

 

[IceCold]

I think we should give peace a chance and try to negotiate the terms on the table instead on the front….

Anyone who still thinks that peace hurts or sucks: Try a War...

How do you perpose negotiating the terms on the table sir? My question is also directed towards Blain sir.
If we analysize the situation, this isnt the first time violation occured, it has been happening in the past as well and every time it happens, we lay a protest against which we are handed over with some verbal assurances and by the time the jet of the political leader lands back, another missile hits. And with that Pakistan did not do much other then just protest, but then things went from bad to worst and US decided its time to land boots on Pakistani soil. Now i dont understand how will we negotiate this with the US or even if we do, there is no gurrantee that it wont happen again, infact if there is a gurrantee about anything, it will be that it will happen as and when US pleases. Also do not underestimate the public sentiment here. Do we want to give the general public the impression that PA is not able to defend them against hositilty and that they are on their own and should pray that the next hell fire does not hit their house. People wont buy it specially the tribals and frankly speaking if Pakistan army did not do anything, the tribals will take matters into their own hands, meaning more incrusions into afghanistan which inturn will pose significant damage to PA in that area as we will loose the support of the locals and no war can be won without the support of the locals. US has pretty much undermined our interests not only in the region by giving India a free hand in afghanistan but also inside Pakistan by supporting ilks like Batiullah Mehsud.
So in a situation what should we do keep negotiating while the local population turns agains the army and take matters into their own hand or perhaps stand together with unity and have faith in Allah as this isnt the first time PA will face a much bigger and better enemy.

 

[x_man]

How do you perpose negotiating the terms on the table sir? My question is also directed towards Blain sir.
If we analysize the situation, this isnt the first time violation occured, it has been happening in the past as well and every time it happens, we lay a protest against which we are handed over with some verbal assurances and by the time the jet of the political leader lands back, another missile hits. And with that Pakistan did not do much other then just protest, but then things went from bad to worst and US decided its time to land boots on Pakistani soil. Now i dont understand how will we negotiate this with the US or even if we do, there is no gurrantee that it wont happen again, infact if there is a gurrantee about anything, it will be that it will happen as and when US pleases. Also do not underestimate the public sentiment here. Do we want to give the general public the impression that PA is not able to defend them against hositilty and that they are on their own and should pray that the next hell fire does not hit their house. People wont buy it specially the tribals and frankly speaking if Pakistan army did not do anything, the tribals will take matters into their own hands, meaning more incrusions into afghanistan which inturn will pose significant damage to PA in that area as we will loose the support of the locals and no war can be won without the support of the locals. US has pretty much undermined our interests not only in the region by giving India a free hand in afghanistan but also inside Pakistan by supporting ilks like Batiullah Mehsud.
So in a situation what should we do keep negotiating while the local population turns agains the army and take matters into their own hand or perhaps stand together with unity and have faith in Allah as this isnt the first time PA will face a much bigger and better enemy.

You are absolutely right....We are actually stuck in quite a jam...If we don’t retaliate back , we are in trouble ( already) and if we do hit back , we will still be in trouble ...

The biggest dilemma is that once our own leadership is not sincere with its own people , so why would anyone treat us with respect....With kapoots like Zardari and Gillani who are at the helm of affairs , one can well imagine that how much stand they will take for its awam or do they really give a damn? US knows that no matter how many incursions or attacks they do, they can still get away with it.....

As I said earlier in my last post that any retaliation might bring a short term jubilation or a temporary relief but its not going to help us anyway in the longer term ...And, its subsequent effects can be pretty devastating that we might not be able to withstand due to our multiple internal weaknesses. I feel that countering one violent action by another violent act will always result in more violence…It will never bring the peace that you are looking for here…

I still believe that a strong and a well thought diplomatic and a media campaign can make a difference here... Media should play its positive role...They should show the images , interview the effected, hold talk shows on the subject, launch internet / cyber campaigns, buy air time on AL-Jazeera or BBC or whatever international channel they can get their hands on ..Meanwhile a parallel diplomatic effort should also be running…Speak loud at UNO or any international forums, send envoys to EU, use our think tank pool to spread the word around, take help of the overseas influential Pakistani origin personalities who are have some say at their government to raise this issue at whatever level they can....Let everyone know that despite being a strong supported and ally in the WoT, how are we being treated. Let them know who is being victimised here....Who is stopping us to take these measures? If we can’t stand for ourselves, nobody in the world will...

Shooting an American UAV down or blowing few of their empty Humvees is no bloody solution to this problem...Rather it will be the start of many other problems...BTW We have always said that Westerners use their media to defame us or transmit negative propaganda against us, well why can we use their own weapon against them? I am still sure that any effort in this direction can turn the tide in favour of us...Don’t believe me, look at the below pictures ....These are just the few ones that altogether changed the world and even the American opinion about the Vietnam war ,,These three pics achieved what many world leaders couldn’t.........

Ice Cold , you may still differ whatever I said but its my conviction that any sincere effort in this regard can change the worlds opinion about us , without us firing a single bullet or a missile...I know its difficult but not impossible…

All I want is what’s best for Pakistan; I don’t want to see it turning into another Iraq or Afghanistan....