Not denying the validity of your questions, I would put down for you the dilemma facing the PAF(purely my own assumptions so feel free to tear it to shreads).
A. PAF and Pak land is broke. Being a small economy at the best of times we face an adversary that will always bring superior numbers and now technology.
B. We sit at the cusp of technology change with changes occurring so rapidly that as soon as you have bought a plane it is outdated(A relative exaggeration for explanation only).
C. We have a dearth of sellers as the best tech providers are shying away from us because we cannot splash the money out.
So I the light of the above evaluate your platforms and see what you come up with. Essentially most EU and US products are out on that basis due to either expense or Sanctions. Then look at something that will bring you parity with
a. The platforms at the enemy's disposal.
b. Their buying power .
c. The technological superiority they are going to have with the Rafale induction.
To me it seems we will use a defensive strategy of guarding our own airspace as it gives us a certain advantage( you need a 3:1 advantage in offence to be successful).
If you see the matrix which faces the acquisition of the PAF you will realize
A. The current emphasis is on having superior pilot to plane ratio and training(again questionable as IAF is also advancing and growing in confidence).
B. Platforms (F16s being questionable for long term conflicts but JFT and others very relevant) that can be turned around rapidly for a sortie.
C. Quicker mobilization and deployment of existing strength to areas of need.
1. So for a war today(limited scale) we are OK ish as we have 120+76=196 BVR capable platforms as against 232MKIs +50Mirage 2K + ?100M29s=282 unit
2. For a war in 2023 we will have 170 units to their 362 units(36 Rafales plus 40 more MKIs).
I fully understand the numbers game does not take into account the complexity the Rafale brings to the threat matrix.
So if you look at that you need a platforms that would be superior to the Rafale and the Upgraded MKIs and M2Ks &M29s.
Evaluation of that platform is where our problem lies specially in view of our lean pockets.
We can get the EFT and it will bring us parity but not superiority.
We can look at the SU35/J11/16s again with possible parity but no superiority.
The same can be said for the 16 Bl.70s. We therefore need a 5th generation fighter which even in 2 squadron strength will give us a massive advantage at a high price but a superior outcome. There is an on going requirement debate for an additional late 4th generation fighter to do the donkey work. However my humble opinion remains that this sid3 of 2030 we can only afford to buy 1 fighter type.
You can see that jumping because you are worried aside, we are realistically not in a position to buy a suitable platform which will have a deterrent value high enough for the enemy to stay away.
A
Sir, in my humble opinion, there is a fundamental flaw in this calculus. Stealth against a combination of S-400 and Rafale is going to be of limited use. The days of ultimate air superiority are gone. I challenge anyone who made this decision whether they have actually flown a stealth aircraft, or fought against one in a modern system such as Rafale. Stealth provided air superiority in the 1990s, but since then, people have clued up.
What's needed against the Rafale + S-400 threat is:
1. Equivalent air defence. A multi-layered defence system that can withstand aircrafts, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.
2. A saturation attack to take out the enemy's systems.
3. A credible 360 degree attack profile that raises the cost of defence for the enemy and turns strategic depth into a liability.
The first volley of any Indian attack WILL NOT be Rafales. The first volley will be Brahmos in a saturation style attack on air defence and forward airbases. If we are caught unawares here, our position will be extremely weakened, and to rub insult to injury, there will be no advancing Indian armor to retaliate with Nasr. Once air defence is gone, the target will be our strategic infrastructure: PAC Kamra, Breeder reactors, HIT, POF, nuclear infrastructure. Without air cover, ground forces including tactical and strategic missile launchers will be at risk of identification and termination.
This is the sub-nuclear limited war designed to destroy our capability.
