Sir, as i said above, i say it again, u r the expert and definitely u know better about armored warfare. PA is very well aware of the Cold Start Doctrine and we have done our preparation, during PA largest ever exercise Zar-e-Momin way back in late eighties, 13 new concepts were designed, and this exercise main objective was countering the cold start kind of doctrines. PA is investing huge time, money & efforts in countering the indian cold doctrine thread. The numbers of tanks in PA has increased substantially, the Al Khalid & its future variants and upgrading of other tanks is a part of this exercise.
Now, u r right Indian Armor forces are huge & PA can't match them 1 on 1. Plus they are sitting next to the border.
Firstly, PA has a good communication & intelligence network. If indian forces move toward the international border, we will get indications, plus their cold doctrine thrust would be in the plain & desert areas of Multan, Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan side of areas, where PA has plenty of forces deployed. Just like tanks are being upgraded, so have been the mechanized infantry battalions (MIB in PA terminology).
India too has its intel and plans. For the sake of what if- what if they do break the border open? I don't know the actual locations of units on either side. However, bear with me on this. Patriot said, "Pakistan's defenses are concentrated on the border." I think he makes a bit of a mistake. Of course there will be some tanks there, but most will be held back some distance. The bulk of the defenses will be infantry and ATGM's. Now, I don't doubt that those defenders will do their best to win, and if they can't win, to make the Indian victory as costly as possible. However military history and operational facts means the attacker has the edge. While the attacker does need 3-1 odds in conventional wisdom to overcome the defenders. The attacker gets to choose the time and place of the attack to achieve those odds.
Both sides are trying to sniff out the others plans and trying to counter what they think the other side is doing. For India this means sniffing out where they can achieve the superiority in arms to force the breach. The worst thing Pakistan could do is have its mobile reserves to close to the border, which is as bad as too far. The bulk of Pakistan's reserves will be concentrated some distance back for a couple of reasons.
1. If Indian arms force a rapid breach there is less risk of rapid encirclement
2. By pulling back say a day to several days travel instead of a bunch of little units close that might not be able to stop a penetration. That also leaves a bunch of other little units to far away to have any bearing on the battle. You instead have concentrations big enough to launch weighted counter-attacks that actually have a chance of achieving an objective. Imagine the border as the base of a triangle, a day or mores travel under combat conditions (threat of enemy air attacks, blown bridges etc) as the sides. Where those two sides come together is where you want your reserves. The closer you are to the border, the less border that unit can cover and so you need to have more smaller units to guard the border.
2ndly, as said we can't match them 1 on 1, PA has made considerable efforts in the LAT & HAT units. Light Anti Tank & Heavy Anti Tank battalions. HAT battalions equipped with TOWs & Baktar Shikan ATGM, fixed positions, mobile carriers on M113 APC & jeeps platforms.
In 1973 the ATGM's ripped the Israelis apart. It was a shock and a lot of people pronounced that the tank was dead. Of course Chobbam type armors and ERA put lie to that claim. In the most recent use of massed ATGMs, the 2006 Lebanon war, the results were surprising. The Israelis took less losses per missiles fired than they did in 73. Signifigantly so, modern armor is very well protected against ATGM's lacking a top down attack capability. Those anti-tank units will kill some Indians, but the chance of them stopping the attack is pretty remote. They are there to slow the pace of the Indian advance. They are performing a mission much like the Armored Cavalry Regiments of the US Army did on the inter-German and West German-Czechoslovakian borders- slow the pace of the enemy advance so that the armored units have time to fix the enemy intentions and then move to counter. This strategy was first developed by Germany in the wake of WWI when the Treaty of Versailles limited the size of the German Army and Poland was a real threat. What Germany came up with as a solution to its problem was the sue of Frei Korps (Volunteer units of WWI vets not bound by the treaty. The Nazi party had such a unit- the SA) on the border to develop an enemy attack and slow it down so the Heer (regular army) could then launch counter attacks. During WWII this tactic cost the Russians millions of losses. It wasn't enough to stop the Russians, they simple had too much weight. But that tactic cost them millions of lives. The US Army copied it post war.
Those Pakistani troops will do their duty, but don't expect too much from what is basically a suicide mission. The real guardians of Pakistan will be the mobile reserves. Not only will they have to finally stop the Indian advance, but if a political settlement is not forthcoming, will have to use force to eject the Indian troops from Pakistani soil.
When my dad was doing his Anti Tank course, i had asked the same question that indians have huge numbers, he replied we are ready for them and will make a graveyard of their tanks at pakistani soil. I was little at that time so took it as a patriotic comment, but after a few years, when came to know about the preparations PA has done, they will give indian armor a fight they will remember.
No one denies that the border troops would do their best. Much like if you were out walking with your family and a gang of thugs attacked. I know I would tell my family to run and call the police, while I went down fighting to keep them safe. The border troops face that type of mission.
So to counter indian cold start doctrine, PA has tanks and huge ATGM network. Plus, indian armor for the time being aren't that superior, their T-72 are well known, u sir urself know what americans made of iraqi T-72s,
A couple of points of note here.
1. The US used the M829A1 (91) and M829A3 (03) rounds which Pakistan has no real equivalent. The Auto-loader in the AK/AZ is the same as on the T-72 and this imposes a maximum penetrator length under 600mm. This is going to limit performance.
2. Everyone is assuming the T-90's are going to the units detailed for the Cold Start mission. These tanks have much better protection than a T-72, both in terms of actual armor and in ERA. The Kontack-5 is no joke. It claims a reduction of 30% in penetration values vs KE penetrators. At the Heide tests in Germany on former Soviet and East German equipment the K-5 was (rumored) able to take on the M829A1 which so devastated Iraq and render the T-72 invulnerable. This lead to the M829A2 and A3 series.
The latest Indian T-90's about to be entering service will have the Russian ceramic inserts replaced with India's own Kachan ceramic. The ERA has been upgraded to Kacktus HERA, and a swiss APS has been added. Those tows are not going to be that effective. The newest T-90's also have an improved autoloader capable of handling shells like the BM42M series which is a long rod penetrator design giving them superior gun power over the AK/AZ. Its going to be a contest of maneuver with the side with the most tactical and operational skill (getting the other guy where you want him so your tools of war can beat his tools of war) who wins.
i read somewhere their T-72s are being upgraded with night fighting equipment now, not a very old article.
The T-72's are like the AZ tanks, not front line equipment.
Till they get their T-90s in huge numbers, we will be having upgraded Al Khalids, which aren't that far away. They sure will take on the T-90s.
The latest T-90 is slower, but better protected and has a superior gun system (not sure if they have the rounds to make use of its potential)
Other operational issues faced by armor, u are spot on as u r the expert. I said what i knew about the working of our army, we have a limited offensive plans, so we think about that, we don't wana conquer india, they for sure wanna do, so let them come, in 1965 Battle of Chawinda war our foot soldiers strapped anti tank mines to their chests and lied down infront of the advancing indian tanks & stopped them, we will do that again. But indians won't be able to succeed in their cold start doctrine.
If war comes, the Indians will break the border open, the real fight will be in how far they get before stopping (because of Pakistani force of arms or political pressure) and if they can be pushed out. Assuming anything else would leave Pakistan dangerously exposed. Your officers are professional and thus I feel pretty confident that they are not planning on a best case scenario, but a worst case situation. If you plan on meeting the challenge of a worst case situation, then if real life is easier- you win easier, if its harder you don't have as much of a gap between plans and reality.