Options for Pakistan in dealing with Ind, US

[Lone Shooter]

Salam to all

Well i feel out of place when i being a new comer say something about the stratigic level discussion... but may be the old vetran army generals and senior officers may put me wise on it.

The way i see it, whenever India tries to bully us v play the card of leting US know that v r moving our forces out of waziristan and on to the indian side. keeping in view the Pak- US relations in recent times and the change of tone on both the sides, what do u think r options available for pakistan? what if v continue on this track of diplomacy and end up having enemy on both sides?

and let us all be realistic while answering it and i am sure when i say realistic i am not saying coword

 

[Chogy]

The only invasion danger from the Northwest is the Taliban and their terrorist chums, and the invasion takes the form of ideology rather than tanks and jets.

The USA/ISAF/NATO is not going to threaten Pakistani territory. And in these days of nuclear weapons, I am hopeful India/Pakistani tensions will diminish, with the thought of extensive and open armed conflict to be unthinkable.

 

[Lone Shooter]

The only invasion And in these days of nuclear weapons, I am hopeful India/Pakistani tensions will diminish, with the thought of extensive and open armed conflict to be unthinkable.

Sir first of all thnx for ur kind comments...

Sir even if we agree that USA will not invade from Afganistan.... but still u cannot rule out the possibility of a nuclear war. Even US and russia were at a time near to 3rd world war with nuclear weapons during cuba crisis. what makes u so confident that this will not be the case in south asia.. when both the nations are way more emotional (than the US/russsians) on every subject under the sky and to make things worst have close borders which makes it easy for opening of war under any small incident

 

[Nishan_101]

I think the AAA and Anza MK-IIIs are the right answer to the NATOs aggressive in our eastern borders as they really need to taste the lesson that Pakistan Military can teach them after the Afghan Taliban.

 

[Chogy]

Sir first of all thnx for ur kind comments...

Sir even if we agree that USA will not invade from Afganistan.... but still u cannot rule out the possibility of a nuclear war. Even US and russia were at a time near to 3rd world war with nuclear weapons during cuba crisis. what makes u so confident that this will not be the case in south asia.. when both the nations are way more emotional (than the US/russsians) on every subject under the sky and to make things worst have close borders which makes it easy for opening of war under any small incident

Hope and pray that leaders remain rational and open to logic. A nuclear exchange is the ultimate illogical act. I also think it is critically important that India and Pakistan have a form of instant communication... the "red telephone" sitting on leaders' desks.

If you combine level headed rationality, communication, and importantly, security for warheads, the likelihood of a nuclear war diminishes. But unfortunately, it won't go away.

I hate to say this, but welcome to the cold war. I grew up with it. We were scared all the time. We'd look up from our school play yard and imagine the nukes re-entering the atmosphere above us; the blinding flash, and obliteration. It sucks. Hopefully it's also motivation for leaders to not provoke each other.

 

[Lone Shooter]

I hate to say this, but welcome to the cold war. I grew up with it. We were scared all the time. We'd look up from our school play yard and imagine the nukes re-entering the atmosphere above us; the blinding flash, and obliteration. It sucks. Hopefully it's also motivation for leaders to not provoke each other.

I really dont know who has the red button in our country... army of politicians... but God save us all if its with later ones

 

[Chogy]

I really dont know who has the red button in our country... army of politicians... but God save us all if its with later ones

It's likely with both. Politicians generally give the order, but that requires the military to carry it out. Somewhere within that chain of command will hopefully be somebody who simply says "no", assuming the launch order is invalid.

The military in theory could initiate a launch, but again, that requires the cooperation of a number of people, any one or more who could say "This is nuts and unwarranted." and prevents a launch.

 

[fatman17]

its the PM who has the authority to order a nuclear strike (God Forbid). i agree with Chogy that it is the ultimate act of madness on anybody's part who possess nukes!

 

[Aamir Hussain]

I think both countries understand the risk of nuclear war. That is why they keep on spending on conventional weapons. The secenario from Pakistani perspective would be that a nuclear strike would be preceeded by a non state incident whereby, Inida would respond through quick but limited strike through its IBG's.

The play beocmes tricky after this. How far the IBG's would penetrate or how many fronts are opened simultaneously before PA is pushed to order a Tactical Nuclear Strike.

Another factor comes into play here. What if the limited Tactical Strike is launched on Indian Armored Brigades on Pakistani soil? What then? Would India counter strike with Nuclear Weapons?

It would be complicated with a lot of permutations and combinations.

IMO, given the current situation, the IBG strike is a cushion, created by India to give it maneuver room to use "Other" options to tackle Pakistan. It knows fully well that except for a rouge launch possibility, Nuclear exchange is next to impossible as other nations will step in quickly to diffuse the situation the moment conventional engagement starts.

They have calculated that it will take atleast a week before external diplomatic forces come into play, earnestly. A week that India thinks it needs to "Teach" Pakistan a lesson.

Pakistan on the other hand needs to create increasingly capable mobile anti armor and anti aircraft assets alongwith air assault capabiltiy to counter any limited but fast thrust by IBG's and stall them just inside our own border. The same seven days are critical for us as well.

Development of nuclear tipped shells fired from our 155 mm SPG's and the M 110 SPG's would be a capabiltiy that can give India second thoughts on the IBG strike scenario.

My 2C Worth.

 

[VCheng]

All of the strategies being discussed above have a striking parallel with the Cold War scenarios in Europe; the end was brought about economic collapse of USSR, not by military means.

Therein lies the lesson for Pakistan; whether anyone heeds it remains to be seen.

 

[Bratva]

This is ideological war between America and Talibans. Instead of eliminating ideology of taliban and winning hearts and minds of local populace, America strengthened the the ideology of Pashtuns that USA is infact USSR of 21st century, now logically speaking, what the actual gain made by America in afghanistan in last 10 years? have they eliminated taliban or their ideology which is dragging the the war to it's 11th year? if we compare Afghanis and Vietnamese , Vietnamese were not vengeful like the Pashtuns of Afghanistan, that'sw hy they didn't created headaches for america after vietnam war ended.

But what's the probability Taliban will not harm america even they leave Afghanistan forever? America has stuck in a quagmire, can't defeat taliban, can't defeat the ideology, can't bring different ethnicities of Afghanistan on one table to put an end to this menace and can't stop taliban from taking over Afghanistan and once Taliban are back in business, they can't stop themselves for taking revenge, because revenge and honor is embed in their DNA's that's why they are fighting this war for more than 10 years non-stop and still america were not able to dent their morale .

 

[Lone Shooter]

It's likely with both. Politicians generally give the order, but that requires the military to carry it out. Somewhere within that chain of command will hopefully be somebody who simply says "no", assuming the launch order is invalid.

The military in theory could initiate a launch, but again, that requires the cooperation of a number of people, any one or more who could say "This is nuts and unwarranted." and prevents a launch.

very assuring but sounds like with these many ppl involved... v might not be able to launch it even when v'd be needing it

The million dollar question in my mind is ... that r these gentelmen trained to perform that task... to make that call or for that matter to veto that call... or that they'll cross thaht river when they get there... and if they r trained.. then to what level cause frankly lots of lives depend on their training

 

[pmukherjee]

Salam to all

Well i feel out of place when i being a new comer say something about the stratigic level discussion... but may be the old vetran army generals and senior officers may put me wise on it.

The way i see it, whenever India tries to bully us v play the card of leting US know that v r moving our forces out of waziristan and on to the indian side. keeping in view the Pak- US relations in recent times and the change of tone on both the sides, what do u think r options available for pakistan? what if v continue on this track of diplomacy and end up having enemy on both sides?

and let us all be realistic while answering it and i am sure when i say realistic i am not saying coword

Hey leave the US/NATO out of it. They are outsiders and will soon leave. The fact is that Pakistan and India have to coexist as neighbours. India does not want war. War with India is not in Pakistan's best interests and surely Pakistanis too don't want war. What then are the circumstances that may lead to war despite neither country wanting war? The answer is there for all to see. It is these misguided guided missiles called jihadis or terrorists who reside in Pakistan, they 'eat your salt' (to use a common idiom), kill and maim Pakistanis by the hundreds almost everyday and they, every once in a while also conduct adventure activities in India. They kill and maim Indians by the hundreds. To this end, they take the help of certain like minded Indians, even though, the planners, masterminds and the financiers are all Pakistanis. This is the single most inflammable factor which can cause war between the two countries. The Pakistani governmental agencies (and in this I include the Army as armies are organs of the government) have to simply win this internal war against the terrorists. If the common Pakistani does not want war with India, then the government elected by the common Pakistani will not want war. If the Pakistani government wins the war against the terrorists and subdues them, then possibilities of another Indo-Pak war in the future will recede and both countries can get on with the job of nation building and pulling our millions out of poverty.

That is the only lasting solution. This business of threatening to pull out XI Corps (7 and 9 Infantry Divisions) from Waziristan and sending them to the east and causing the Americans to panic and convince the Indians to back off as otherwise the WOT will suffer can not go on indefinitely.

 

[Sinnerman108]

Hey leave the US/NATO out of it. They are outsiders and will soon leave. The fact is that Pakistan and India have to coexist as neighbours. India does not want war. War with India is not in Pakistan's best interests and surely Pakistanis too don't want war. What then are the circumstances that may lead to war despite neither country wanting war? The answer is there for all to see. It is these misguided guided missiles called jihadis or terrorists who reside in Pakistan, they 'eat your salt' (to use a common idiom), kill and maim Pakistanis by the hundreds almost everyday and they, every once in a while also conduct adventure activities in India. They kill and maim Indians by the hundreds. To this end, they take the help of certain like minded Indians, even though, the planners, masterminds and the financiers are all Pakistanis. This is the single most inflammable factor which can cause war between the two countries. The Pakistani governmental agencies (and in this I include the Army as armies are organs of the government) have to simply win this internal war against the terrorists. If the common Pakistani does not want war with India, then the government elected by the common Pakistani will not want war. If the Pakistani government wins the war against the terrorists and subdues them, then possibilities of another Indo-Pak war in the future will recede and both countries can get on with the job of nation building and pulling our millions out of poverty.

That is the only lasting solution. This business of threatening to pull out XI Corps (7 and 9 Infantry Divisions) from Waziristan and sending them to the east and causing the Americans to panic and convince the Indians to back off as otherwise the WOT will suffer can not go on indefinitely.

What made you believe a common Pakistani does not want war with India ?
Many people would relish such an opportunity.

 

[Donatello]

What made you believe a common Pakistani does not want war with India ?
Many people would relish such an opportunity.

You kidding me, right?