Opinion The Kayani doctrine

[fatman17]

Opinion The Kayani doctrine

Dr Farrukh Saleem

Sunday, March 03, 2013

Capital suggestion



The Kayani Doctrine, built on four pillars, comprises: American troops would have to withdraw from Afghanistan; reconciliation among Afghan factions is not possible without the ISI; the Jalalabad-Torkham-Karachi route remains the most viable for withdrawing American forces and India cannot be allowed to encircle Pakistan.

In 2009, General McChrystal, commander Isaf and commander US forces in Afghanistan (USFOR-A), refusing to buy the Kayani Doctrine, requested a ‘troop surge’ numbering 30,000-40,000. In 2010, 101st Combat Aviation Brigade, 502nd Infantry Regiment, 187th Infantry Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team and the 101st Sustainment Brigade were deployed to Afghanistan.

In 2010, General Petraeus, commander Isaf and commander USFOR-A, refusing to buy the Kayani Doctrine, began implementing his “comprehensive counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy”. General Petraeus’ COIN had four pillars: “securing and serving the population, understanding local circumstances, separating irreconcilables from reconcilables and living among the people”.


By 2011, America’s cost of war in Afghanistan hovered around a colossal $500 billion and the US had incurred 1,814 fatalities.

By 2011, Petraeus’ four pillars had begun to fall flat – one by one. America could no longer sustain the war in Afghanistan – neither politically nor financially. Finally, President Obama, in a prime time speech, bought into the Kayani Doctrine by announcing a troop drawdown schedule. On December 2, 2012, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held talks with COAS General Ashfaq Kayani. This may have actually been the first formal buy-in of the Kayani Doctrine.


On December 17, the principal deputy assistant attorney general told a federal court in New York: “In the view of the United States, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is entitled to immunity because it is part of a foreign state within the meaning of the FSIA (Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act).” This may have actually been an implicit acceptance by the US of the ISI’s indispensability in the Afghan endgame (the doctrine’s second pillar).

On December 29, Pakistan received $688 million under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). According to the Ministry of Finance, “from May 2010 onwards Pakistan had asked for $2.5 billion under the CSF but only $1.9 billion have been reimbursed.”

On February 10, “two convoys each hauling 25 shipping containers entered Pakistan at the Chaman and Torkham borders” heading back to where they came from. To be certain, these convoys will be followed by a few thousand taking back around 750,000 major military items valued at close to $40 billion (the doctrine’s third pillar).


Indian defence analysts claim that the British have acted as the intermediaries in the latest US-Pakistan rapprochement and that Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are also involved in the game. Pakistan is once again becoming the centre piece in the Afghan endgame.


India’s Ambassador MK Bhadrakumar, who served in Islamabad, Kabul, Tashkent and Moscow, opines, “Washington is stonewalling India’s requests for the extradition of two key protagonists who are in the US jails – David Headley and Tahawwur Rana” and that “India’s worst fears with regard to the situation in Afghanistan are probably coming true.”

Apparently, India’s dream of encircling Pakistan is evaporating up in thin air (the doctrine’s last pillar). In all probability, Pakistan’s security challenges are going to become even more challenging after Nato pulls out of Afghanistan. With America gone, militants of all sorts and forms could team up in their attempt to subdue Pakistan. Apparently, the Pak Army does not have much of a doctrine for such a contingency.


The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com. Twitter: @Saleemfarrukh

 

[OrionHunter]

Opinion The Kayani doctrine

The Kayani Doctrine, built on four pillars, comprises: American troops would have to withdraw from Afghanistan; reconciliation among Afghan factions is not possible without the ISI; the Jalalabad-Torkham-Karachi route remains the most viable for withdrawing American forces and India cannot be allowed to encircle Pakistan.

Who is this idiot who wrote this article? All these so called 'pillars' are NOT a doctrine except for the last one, ie, 'India cannot be allowed to encircle Pakistan'. The rest are just statements of facts, not a doctrine!

 

[Paan Singh]

First point of kayani doctrine

1)American will have to withdraw its troops.

We will talk when american will go.

 

[alibaz]

@Fatman
Yeh Goray 100 jutuian aur 100 ganday kha kay samajday nain.

 

[illusion8]

By 2011, Petraeus’ four pillars had begun to fall flat – one by one. America could no longer sustain the war in Afghanistan – neither politically nor financially. Finally, President Obama, in a prime time speech, bought into the Kayani Doctrine by announcing a troop drawdown schedule. On December 2, 2012, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held talks with COAS General Ashfaq Kayani. This may have actually been the first formal buy-in of the Kayani Doctrine.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakistan-army/238170-opinion-kayani-doctrine.html#ixzz2MUvYVMpc

This is BS - Obama declared right in 2008 that they will be winding down operations in Afghanistan and bringing their boys home. That was one of his election promises.

On February 10, “two convoys each hauling 25 shipping containers entered Pakistan at the Chaman and Torkham borders” heading back to where they came from. To be certain, these convoys will be followed by a few thousand taking back around 750,000 major military items valued at close to $40 billion (the doctrine’s third pillar).

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakistan-army/238170-opinion-kayani-doctrine.html#ixzz2MUwZkgu9

Again just conjecture - After OBL's killing the US had meant to withdraw most of it's troops and handover operations to the ANF.

The ANF was raised and trained precisely for this, and they have been planning handover of operations to Afghan forces right from 2006.

 

[illusion8]

India’s Ambassador MK Bhadrakumar, who served in Islamabad, Kabul, Tashkent and Moscow, opines, “Washington is stonewalling India’s requests for the extradition of two key protagonists who are in the US jails – David Headley and Tahawwur Rana” and that “India’s worst fears with regard to the situation in Afghanistan are probably coming true.”

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakistan-army/238170-opinion-kayani-doctrine.html#ixzz2MUxN7keI

Totally unrelated to Kayani's pillars

David Headly and Rana were accused and tried first in the US courts - Indian agencies were allowed access to them for questioning, and both are serving US sentences and most probably will be handed over to India after that - no promise were made to the accused that they will not be handed over to India.

 

[Leader]

Capital suggestion

The Kayani Doctrine, built on four pillars, comprises:

American troops would have to withdraw from Afghanistan;

reconciliation among Afghan factions is not possible without the ISI;

the Jalalabad-Torkham-Karachi route remains the most viable for withdrawing American forces

and

India cannot be allowed to encircle Pakistan.

In 2009, General McChrystal, commander Isaf and commander US forces in Afghanistan (USFOR-A), refusing to buy the Kayani Doctrine, requested a ‘troop surge’ numbering 30,000-40,000. In 2010, 101st Combat Aviation Brigade, 502nd Infantry Regiment, 187th Infantry Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team and the 101st Sustainment Brigade were deployed to Afghanistan.

In 2010, General Petraeus, commander Isaf and commander USFOR-A, refusing to buy the Kayani Doctrine, began implementing his “comprehensive counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy”. General Petraeus’ COIN had four pillars: “securing and serving the population, understanding local circumstances, separating irreconcilables from reconcilables and living among the people”.

By 2011, America’s cost of war in Afghanistan hovered around a colossal $500 billion and the US had incurred 1,814 fatalities. By 2011, Petraeus’ four pillars had begun to fall flat – one by one. America could no longer sustain the war in Afghanistan – neither politically nor financially. Finally, President Obama, in a prime time speech, bought into the Kayani Doctrine by announcing a troop drawdown schedule. On December 2, 2012, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held talks with COAS General Ashfaq Kayani. This may have actually been the first formal buy-in of the Kayani Doctrine.

On December 17, the principal deputy assistant attorney general told a federal court in New York: “In the view of the United States, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is entitled to immunity because it is part of a foreign state within the meaning of the FSIA (Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act).” This may have actually been an implicit acceptance by the US of the ISI’s indispensability in the Afghan endgame (the doctrine’s second pillar).

On December 29, Pakistan received $688 million under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). According to the Ministry of Finance, “from May 2010 onwards Pakistan had asked for $2.5 billion under the CSF but only $1.9 billion have been reimbursed.”

On February 10, “two convoys each hauling 25 shipping containers entered Pakistan at the Chaman and Torkham borders” heading back to where they came from. To be certain, these convoys will be followed by a few thousand taking back around 750,000 major military items valued at close to $40 billion (the doctrine’s third pillar).

Indian defence analysts claim that the British have acted as the intermediaries in the latest US-Pakistan rapprochement and that Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are also involved in the game. Pakistan is once again becoming the centre piece in the Afghan endgame.

India’s Ambassador MK Bhadrakumar, who served in Islamabad, Kabul, Tashkent and Moscow, opines, “Washington is stonewalling India’s requests for the extradition of two key protagonists who are in the US jails – David Headley and Tahawwur Rana” and that “India’s worst fears with regard to the situation in Afghanistan are probably coming true.”

Apparently, India’s dream of encircling Pakistan is evaporating up in thin air (the doctrine’s last pillar). In all probability, Pakistan’s security challenges are going to become even more challenging after Nato pulls out of Afghanistan. With America gone, militants of all sorts and forms could team up in their attempt to subdue Pakistan. Apparently, the Pak Army does not have much of a doctrine for such a contingency.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com. Twitter: @Saleemfarrukh

- See more at: The Kayani doctrine - Dr Farrukh Saleem

 

[tarrar]

Indians just can't keep themselves out of the picture, they just have to come & say BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH

 

[Capt.Popeye]

First point of kayani doctrine

1)American will have to withdraw its troops.

We will talk when american will go.

The question is; will all the Americans go?
The answer to that is: NO.
Plus Afghanistan post-drawdown will have many players. Not only Pakistan. That is clearly where one Pillar of the "Kayani Doctrine" is going for a "six"!
Recently Abdul Basit of the Pakistani FO was quoted in Bonn, Germany as saying that Pakistan has made mistakes in Afghanistan. Which meant that Kayani's GHQ has made mistakes in Afghanistan. Does this mean that Pakistani Foreign Policy determination has shifted from GHQ in Rawalpindi to FO in Islamabad?
That says something about the "Kayani Doctrine", also ??!!

 

[illusion8]

Indians just can't keep themselves out of the picture, they just have to come & say BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH

That's because Kayani's fourth pillar is about India

 

[Fahad Khan 2]

Nothing new.... The most well known journalist of Urdu column Harron Rashid knows Kayani far better then any journalist..... he in one of his column told about that Kayani is happy to get the big pie in Afghanistan end game and what he wanted is now understood by America......

 

[RazorMC]

How did Kayani suggest a draw-down ?? The US was following its own policy similar to Iraq: troop surge followed by gradual withdrawal.

The ISI did not have immunity just because of Pak-US relations, but because of being part of a foriegn nation. There was no acceptance involved. Try filing a case against RAW and the result would still be the same: no trial.

 

[Gentelman]

That's because Kayani's fourth pillar is about India

4th one is about saving Pakistan from any evils hand...
well Indians can't bear that...

Indians just can't keep themselves out of the picture, they just have to come & say BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH

They have a new kind of worm named interference in every Pakistani's matter worm...
it doesnot let them sit with peace...

 

[Mitro]

Mr. Obama said Friday he would make an announcement on the pace of troop drawdown in coming months. In a joint statement after their meeting, the leaders reaffirmed plans for U.S. and other foreign troops in Afghanistan to shift from a combat to a support mission in mid-2013, near the level when Mr. Obama came to office in 2009.

But Mr. Obama made clear he intends to speed the time frame.

"Because of the progress that's been made by our troops, because of the progress that's been made in terms of Afghan security forces, their capacity to take the lead, we are able to meet those goals and accelerate them somewhat," he said.

Mr. Karzai welcomed the spring transition time frame that would put his forces in the lead. He said the shift would mean that U.S. forces would no longer operate in Afghan villages, a long-standing demand of the Afghan president. A senior administration official said the shift was done at Mr. Karzai's request.

"In spring this year, the Afghan forces will be fully responsible for providing security and protection to the Afghan people," Mr. Karzai said.

While most unilateral U.S. combat operations will end at that time, Mr. Obama said American troops would still be in the fight, to some extent.

The two leaders left unresolved another contentious issue: U.S. troop levels after 2014, when the current NATO combat mission ends. The Pentagon has presented White House staff with three options that would leave roughly 3,000, 6,000 or 9,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan after 2014. Officials said it could take weeks for Mr. Obama to make an announcement.

Senior White House officials said this week that Mr. Obama could reject all three options and leave no U.S. troops in Afghanistan after 2014. On Friday, Mr. Obama neither embraced nor ruled out what analysts have termed the "zero-option."


Obama to Speed Troop Exit - WSJ.com

 

[Dushmann]

guys, you live in Indian subcontinent, so India will be everywhere, especially if Indian strategic interests are threatened. Learn to live with this fact, or migrate somewhere else.