VCheng
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It seems that the one-child policy may not be strictly implemented after all:
from: China's one-child policy: O brother where art thou? | The Economist
China's one-child policy
O brother where art thou?
Aug 2nd 2011, 13:57 by The Economist online
How China might look if the one-child policy were strictly enforced
SINCE 1979 China has undertaken a bold demographic experiment to reduce its population growth, placing a limit on the number of children many couples can have: one. The government claims the policy has shrunk the number of births by around 400m. The one-child policy is not, however, as simple as it sounds. The restrictions are enforced more strictly in the cities than elsewhere, with exemptions for minority ethnic groups and some rural families. A strict one-child policy, applied without exceptions countrywide, would have made an even bigger dent in Chinas population. To show this, The Economist has estimated the impact of a hypothetical one-child policy imposed without exceptions on everyone, everywhere in China. The results are compared with the UN Population Divisions central scenario for the country, which reflects the existing one-child policy. If each woman had been allowed only one child since 1980, Chinas population would have been 340m smaller than it was in 2010. If a strict one-child limit were in force for the rest of this century Chinas population would shrink to less than 145m by 2100, 800m fewer than the UN projects in its central scenario. By then China would have 1.2 pensioners per worker, although it would also have relatively few children to look after: just one for every 9.2 workers.
View attachment 8806
from: China's one-child policy: O brother where art thou? | The Economist
China's one-child policy
O brother where art thou?
Aug 2nd 2011, 13:57 by The Economist online
How China might look if the one-child policy were strictly enforced
SINCE 1979 China has undertaken a bold demographic experiment to reduce its population growth, placing a limit on the number of children many couples can have: one. The government claims the policy has shrunk the number of births by around 400m. The one-child policy is not, however, as simple as it sounds. The restrictions are enforced more strictly in the cities than elsewhere, with exemptions for minority ethnic groups and some rural families. A strict one-child policy, applied without exceptions countrywide, would have made an even bigger dent in Chinas population. To show this, The Economist has estimated the impact of a hypothetical one-child policy imposed without exceptions on everyone, everywhere in China. The results are compared with the UN Population Divisions central scenario for the country, which reflects the existing one-child policy. If each woman had been allowed only one child since 1980, Chinas population would have been 340m smaller than it was in 2010. If a strict one-child limit were in force for the rest of this century Chinas population would shrink to less than 145m by 2100, 800m fewer than the UN projects in its central scenario. By then China would have 1.2 pensioners per worker, although it would also have relatively few children to look after: just one for every 9.2 workers.
View attachment 8806
