October Surprise: my prediction for war

[Feng Leng]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

 

[masterchief_mirza]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

If this happens, I promise you I'll buy you a coke.....in either Taipei or Srinagar, your choice.

 

[Ajay Ghatak]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

And then you woke up because you had fallen from your cot.

 

[UKBengali]

@Feng Leng

Are you for real or is this satire?

If China hit 3 US aircraft carriers like you say, all bets will be off.

US will launch merciless conventional strikes on Chinese military and economic targets on or near it's coasts.

Chinese sea trade will come to a halt as USN/JN will blockade Chinese shipping.

China will be economically crippled quite quickly.

 

[CrazyZ]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

Taiwan and Kashmir/Ladakh are two most likely Asian flash points over the next 10 years for sure. How will the USA respond (if not attacked directly), that I'm not sure? Joining the battle directly would be a huge risk for them. Far riskier then any of the various ME wars. They may intervene... and seriously face injury or defeat....or they may accept the outcome and stay out directly.... like in the Crimea, use sanctions and such.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

@Feng Leng

Are you for real or is this satire?

If China hit 3 US aircraft carriers like you say, all bets will be off.

US will launch merciless conventional strikes on Chinese military and economic targets on or near it's coasts.

Chinese sea trade will come to a halt as USN/JN will blockade Chinese shipping.

China will be economically crippled quite quickly.

How will they do that with half their navy gone?

How does Japan get to even try to block Chinese shipping when they have to pass by China to even enter the fight?

 

[UKBengali]

How will they do that with half their navy gone?

How does Japan get to even try to block Chinese shipping when they have to pass by China to even enter the fight?

3 carriers is not half.

US has level 11 supercarriers and lots of smaller ones that can take STVOL fighters like Harriers and F-35B.

Dozens of LA/Sea Wolf/Virginia Class SSNs will mercilessly destroy the PLAAN if it dares venture out of port.

Attack Japanese soil and the JN will link up with USN to carry out a blockade of China.

I am afraid the thread starter has no comprehension just how powerful the USN is. The JN is just the icing on the cake.

 

[Kamikaze Pilot]

If this happens, I promise you I'll buy you a coke.....in either Taipei or Srinagar, your choice.

Kashmir is not an Alfred Hitchcock movie where for a long period things seem to go in one party's favour. Then suddenly at the last moment there's a twist in the plot.

Kashmir is more like Indian bureaucracy. Nothing changes the inertia.

- PRTP GWD

 

[SuperStar20]

And then you woke up because you had fallen from your cot.

How will they do that with half their navy gone?

How does Japan get to even try to block Chinese shipping when they have to pass by China to even enter the fight?

You forgot about Indian Navy, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam. Everyone will jump in settle with china for good. Tibet, Xinjiang, manchuria, inner mongolia will be independent.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

3 carriers is not half.

US has level 11 supercarriers and lots of smaller ones that can take STVOL fighters like Harriers and F-35B.

Dozens of LA/Sea Wolf/Virginia Class SSNs will mercilessly destroy the PLAAN if it dares venture out of port.

Attack Japanese soil and the JN will link up with USN to carry out a blockade of China.

I am afraid the thread starter has no comprehension just how powerful the USN is. The JN is just the icing on the cake.

There are 6 US carriers in long term maintenance.

All 6 East Coast Carriers In Dock, Not Deployed: Hill Asks Why - Breaking Defense

As the Navy scrambles to get enough parts and people to move carriers back out to sea, it's facing a crowded waterfront at Norfolk.

breakingdefense.com

One is going to be ready to deploy when it is fully repaired. The others won't be able to move for up to 46 months - their reactors will be taken out for refueling.

The USN typically has only 1/3-1/2 of their carriers deployable at any time.

How will their subs do anything when hunted by maritime patrol planes, helicopters and antisub corvettes?

How will they stop these antisub assets when they don't have airpower?

 

[Figaro]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

The only part of this plan that definitely won't work is a Sino-US war. China could reach New Delhi and it would not matter because there is a much larger war going on to the east with the number one military superpower. The entire PACOM might be wiped out but a very large portion of the PLAN would be too and the US could always continue shifting military assets from other regions of the world to face off China. And with only two aircraft carriers, both of them STOBAR, armed with only 4th generation fighters (i.e. J-15), they are simply no match for the F-35Bs and F-35Cs of the USN.

You forgot about Indian Navy, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam. Everyone will jump in settle with china for good. Tibet, Xinjiang, manchuria, inner mongolia will be independent.

Yeah and after the PLA is done with you, Kashmir, Ladakh, Sikkim, and South Tibet will be ceded to its rightful owners. Bhutan will be granted an independent status, allowing it to establish diplomatic relations with every major power. Meanwhile, the rest of the cesspool that is India will be divided between north and south, possibly using Mumbai as a latitude marker for this division. Depending on where you live, you may need to start learning Chinese or brushing up on your Urdu script .

 

[UKBengali]

There are 6 US carriers in long term maintenance.

All 6 East Coast Carriers In Dock, Not Deployed: Hill Asks Why - Breaking Defense

As the Navy scrambles to get enough parts and people to move carriers back out to sea, it's facing a crowded waterfront at Norfolk.

breakingdefense.com

One is going to be ready to deploy when it is fully repaired. The others won't be able to move for up to 46 months - their reactors will be taken out for refueling.

The USN typically has only 1/3-1/2 of their carriers deployable at any time.

How will their subs do anything when hunted by maritime patrol planes, helicopters and antisub corvettes?

How will they stop these antisub assets when they don't have airpower?

US can surge 8 supercarriers and a number of their smaller ones in wartime.

You underestimate just how many they can deploy if they really wanted to. Maintenance and other things can be cut short if there is a pressing need.

PLAAN and China would suffer massive defeat if USN intervened to defend Taiwan and it will stay this way for at least another 10 years.

 

[fitpOsitive]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

One more thing, off the topic, but relevant to China.
This Chorona virus has done one thing very significant: Reduced petroleum consumption to a level that Arabs are at the verge of bankruptcy. The longer this crisis go, the more Arabs will become weak and the more they will be ready to recognize Israel.
Only God knows, who built this Corona Virus, but it seems that Arabs were main target, and China was made scapegoat.

 

[SuperStar20]

The only part of this plan that definitely won't work is a Sino-US war. China could reach New Delhi and it would not matter because there is a much larger war going on to the east with the number one military superpower. The entire PACOM might be wiped out but a very large portion of the PLAN would be too and the US could always continue shifting military assets from other regions of the world to face off China. And with only two aircraft carriers, both of them STOBAR, armed with only 4th generation fighters (i.e. J-15), they are simply no match for the F-35Bs and F-35Cs of the USN.

Yeah and after the PLA is done with you, Kashmir, Ladakh, Sikkim, and South Tibet will be ceded to its rightful owners. Bhutan will be granted an independent status, allowing it to establish diplomatic relations with every major power. Meanwhile, the rest of the cesspool that is India will be divided between north and south, possibly using Mumbai as a latitude marker for this division. Depending on where you live, you may need to start learning Chinese or brushing up on your Urdu script .

Equation changes when USA enters. See recent news

China Tells U.S. to Stay Out Of Its Border Fight with India

"We don't accept countries outside the region pointing fingers, let alone meddling or making instigation, which will only endanger the regional peace and stability," China's embassy in India said.

www.newsweek.com

 

[TNT]

The US will not give up that easily, all the western countries and Australia and south east asians along with india will join forces. This can be a big problem for china. I think China knows this and thus first want the US pawns to be destroyed or taken over one by one. They might as well attack india, join hands with Pakistan and take away all of J&K and laddakh from india to weaken it. They will next threaten chicken neck and tame india.