No foreign hand in terror: Malik

[SMC]

Given that present day Pakistan is pretty much a security state with a weak civil society where the army's influence is pervasive, do you honestly believe that outfits such as the LeT and JeM can operate, raise funds in 'settled' parts of Pakistan under the noses of the establishment without the active connivance and complicity of certain sections of it?

I am not saying that the whole of PA is involved in promoting terror but there certainly seems to be issues with the command structure within PA and ISI with certain parts of it, possibly radicalised during the Zia era, acting out of turn in aiding and abetting terrorist outfits which were hitherto targetting India but have more recently started undermining the Pakistani state itself..

Regardless of the level of organistational involvement, it is important to recognise that there is an issue rather than attribute it to unsubstantiated 'perception' created by India or certain sections of the Western media..I realise it is going to be a slow process but I hope the Pakistani public and establishment will gradually progress through the stages of change to eventually accepting some responsibility for what is happening in their country.

In the meantime, I am convinced RAW-MOSSAD-CIA would be blamed even if President Zardari turned up in a suicide vest and blew himself up

That's not really a good argument because by the same token, parts of ISI and army must be supporting TTP and BLA.

As for the bolded part, unless there's any evidence, I don't see any need for any 'recognization' to be done. This is the hypocrisy I talk about.

Indians: Pakistanis must recognize that there is a problem with the army and ISI supporting terrorists, even though we have no evidence for it.

On the other hand,

Indians: Pakistanis must recognize that the terrorists are not supported by India because there's no evidence for it.

I wonder when the hypocrisy and double standard will be noticed? I mean, it's like me saying that Indians must recognize that there is a problem with RSS, Shiv Sena, BJP, etc supporting hindu terrorists and RAW supporting terrorists in Pakistan, even though I have no evidence for it. How 'ludicrous' does that sound to you?

 

[temujin]

That's not really a good argument because by the same token, parts of ISI and army must be supporting TTP and BLA.

As for the bolded part, unless there's any evidence, I don't see any need for any 'recognization' to be done. This is the hypocrisy I talk about.

Indians: Pakistanis must recognize that there is a problem with the army and ISI supporting terrorists, even though we have no evidence for it.

On the other hand,

Indians: Pakistanis must recognize that the terrorists are not supported by India because there's no evidence for it.

I wonder when the hypocrisy and double standard will be noticed? I mean, it's like me saying that Indians must recognize that there is a problem with RSS, Shiv Sena, BJP, etc supporting hindu terrorists and RAW supporting terrorists in Pakistan, even though I have no evidence for it. How 'ludicrous' does that sound to you?

SMC, your argument is spurious as we are referring to outfits that are operating out of Pakistan in both cases. It is easy to infer that some of the India centric outfits derive support from the establishment due to the power structure in Pakistan bu on the other hand we do not see the likes of RSS or Shiv Sena running riot in Pakistan so your analogy does not really apply. The case I am making is that fundamentalist outfits like the TTP will find it exceedingly difficult to collaborate with India for ideological reasons and any support that RAW-CIA-MOSSAD may be able to provide is likely to be fairly limited in scope and unsustainable in the long run as religious and clan ties are likely to kick in sooner or later (look at the experience of ISAF forces in Afghanistan) I do not doubt for a second that outfits like the TTP are receiving support from abroad but am suggesting that you are looking in the wrong direction (KSA and the oil rich gulf states are the most likely culprits).

Did you know that overseas remittances, mostly from the Gulf and the UK, have grown exponentially in recent years and make up almost 10% of the Pakistani economy currently and accounted for a significant proportion of the growth it saw during the last decade? Does the Pakistani government have any idea where this money is coming from and where it is going? Maybe that's where the government needs to start looking..

As they say, you gotta take the rough with the smooth..Pakistan was happy to play host to Wahabbist elements from all over the Muslim world during the Afghan war, with the PA being the greatest beneficiary of the process. Now the Pakistani nation needs to work out how to get off the tiger and directing pointless accusations at India is only going to make the task worse.

 

[SMC]

SMC, your argument is spurious as we are referring to outfits that are operating out of Pakistan in both cases. It is easy to infer that some of the India centric outfits derive support from the establishment due to the power structure in Pakistan bu on the other hand we do not see the likes of RSS or Shiv Sena running riot in Pakistan so your analogy does not really apply.

The reason I use the analogy of RSS or Shiv Sena to ISI/army is because in the case of RSS and Shiv Sena, Indians repeatedly deny that these groups are involved in supporting terrorism in India. And that's because I am guessing there's no serious evidence against them. And the same goes for Pakistan in the case of army and ISI. Unless there's some serious evidence, there's not much to look at.

The analogy to RAW was perhaps more appropriate. Just like Indians say that they don't believe that RAW is supporting TTP because there's no evidence - same goes for Pakistanis regarding ISI and Army.

The case I am making is that fundamentalist outfits like the TTP will find it exceedingly difficult to collaborate with India for ideological reasons and any support that RAW-CIA-MOSSAD may be able to provide is likely to be fairly limited in scope and unsustainable in the long run as religious and clan ties are likely to kick in sooner or later (look at the experience of ISAF forces in Afghanistan) I do not doubt for a second that outfits like the TTP are receiving support from abroad but am suggesting that you are looking in the wrong direction (KSA and the oil rich gulf states are the most likely culprits).

Did you know that overseas remittances, mostly from the Gulf and the UK, have grown exponentially in recent years and make up almost 10% of the Pakistani economy currently and accounted for a significant proportion of the growth it saw during the last decade? Does the Pakistani government have any idea where this money is coming from and where it is going? Maybe that's where the government needs to start looking..

The growth of overseas remittance could be because of the much higher number of Pakistanis in the west and gulf now than, say, 10 years back. The intelligence agencies have a great deal of idea about where the money is coming from and where it's going. I am not sure if there's anything suspect about the growth of remittance.

As far as the ideological differences go, I believe that's an overly simplistic argument. Two groups may have completely different ideologies, but if they share a few things in common, such as an enemy, then they can overcome those difference. For instance, US worked with Afghan Mujhaideens and is now working with other Afghan warlords.

 

[temujin]

The reason I use the analogy of RSS or Shiv Sena to ISI/army is because in the case of RSS and Shiv Sena, Indians repeatedly deny that these groups are involved in supporting terrorism in India. And that's because I am guessing there's no serious evidence against them. And the same goes for Pakistan in the case of army and ISI. Unless there's some serious evidence, there's not much to look at.

The analogy to RAW was perhaps more appropriate. Just like Indians say that they don't believe that RAW is supporting TTP because there's no evidence - same goes for Pakistanis regarding ISI and Army.



The growth of overseas remittance could be because of the much higher number of Pakistanis in the west and gulf now than, say, 10 years back. The intelligence agencies have a great deal of idea about where the money is coming from and where it's going. I am not sure if there's anything suspect about the growth of remittance.

As far as the ideological differences go, I believe that's an overly simplistic argument. Two groups may have completely different ideologies, but if they share a few things in common, such as an enemy, then they can overcome those difference. For instance, US worked with Afghan Mujhaideens and is now working with other Afghan warlords.

1) You are making the broad assumption that the agencies know the details of capital flows in and out of the country but at the same time refuse to acknowledge that they may be turning a blind eye to Jihadist groups operating within the country. More a more serious note, keeping track of such transactions is extremely difficult and no intelligence agency in the world (even RAW lol) has the means to do it. I remember reading a World Bank report on the growth of overseas remittances to Pakistan (sad, I know lol) which found that much of it flowed through informal 'hundi' or 'havala' routes and therefore difficult to track. IIRC, the growth in recorded remittances was truly exponential from under $ 1 billion in early 2000 to around $ 10 billion in 2008 and cannot be explained just by an absolute increase in the number of Pakistani expats during the period. If you care to google it, you will find reports citing the huge increase in 'hot money' from the middle east that drove the stock market boom in Pakistan during the mid 2000s, which coincided with the huge spurt in oil prices. Most of that money may have been repatriated following the economic downturn but its entirely conceivable that some of it found its way into the kitty of the TTP and other outfits.

WRT to the ideological angle, I wouldn`t dismiss it off hand if I were you.Two parties at ideological loggerheads as TTP and RAW can never have a sustainable partnership as CIA found out with OBL. I will post something soon which will hopefully help illustrate my point in this regard a bit further.

 

[SMC]

1) You are making the broad assumption that the agencies know the details of capital flows in and out of the country but at the same time refuse to acknowledge that they may be turning a blind eye to Jihadist groups operating within the country. More a more serious note, keeping track of such transactions is extremely difficult and no intelligence agency in the world (even RAW lol) has the means to do it. I remember reading a World Bank report on the growth of overseas remittances to Pakistan (sad, I know lol) which found that much of it flowed through informal 'hundi' or 'havala' routes and therefore difficult to track. IIRC, the growth in recorded remittances was truly exponential from under $ 1 billion in early 2000 to around $ 10 billion in 2008 and cannot be explained just by an absolute increase in the number of Pakistani expats during the period. If you care to google it, you will find reports citing the huge increase in 'hot money' from the middle east that drove the stock market boom in Pakistan during the mid 2000s, which coincided with the huge spurt in oil prices. Most of that money may have been repatriated following the economic downturn but its entirely conceivable that some of it found its way into the kitty of the TTP and other outfits.

Remittance to Pakistan rose from 1 billion in 2000 to 8 billion by 2010. Before I move forward, is there data for India showing growth of remittance to India from 2000 to 2010? I am getting conflicting data on this.

Now if we do see a discrepancy in growth, could it be that perhaps Afghan Taliban and Kashmiri groups are the ones that are being helped rather than TTP? Also, what about the much different growth levels of immigrants from both countries? I believe the rate of growth of immigrants from India to other countries slowed down while immigrants from Pakistan increased at the same rate or even higher than before.

WRT to the ideological angle, I wouldn`t dismiss it off hand if I were you.Two parties at ideological loggerheads as TTP and RAW can never have a sustainable partnership as CIA found out with OBL. I will post something soon which will hopefully help illustrate my point in this regard a bit further.

Afghan Taliban may be at loggerheads with RAW but I am not sure the same can be said about TTP. The reason for that is because they don't have any major conflicting interests. In fact, both of them share one very common interest and enemy, which is the point I am trying to make. TTP has never shown any serious intent to act against India. They have said 1 or 2 times that they will attack India if India attacks Pakistan, but that may well be to gain more support in Pakistan.

 

[KS]

Is this the same Rehman Malik who famously declared "We will provide the full evidences about India's involvement at the right time to the whole world"

.....Guess the right time will never come now.