Next Evolution in Pakistani Cruise Missiles

[Bratva]

"FIRE AND FORGET" & " RE-ATTACK CAPABILITIES"

Based on the recent Images, My discussions at DIMDEX, and Capabilities Pakistan is revealing for its cruise missile. Here is my working theory

In past 15 years, Pakistan worked hard on the navigation and basic propulsion of Cruise missiles along with the composite body. Hence the range limited to 450 KM ( as per 23rd march announcement). Ra'ad-1 limited to 350 KM and was bulky. Engine tech was imported or very crude.

But it all changed with the advent of HARBA. Pakistan started working on indigenous engines from 2017-2018 on-wards to power its ever expanding arsenals of cruise missile

Along with propulsion and engine tech, Teams worked on adding additional advance features on cruise missile like Re-tasking the missile in flight for new attack targets or adding new way points inflight. Plus integrating the beidou Navigation

in 2017, Pakistan tested. Babur-3 with 450 KM. It was most probably the base version with the same old engine. Also it revealed a model of RAAD-2

Things most probably started changing around 2017-2018 when Babur-2, Babur-3 and Harba Was fired and decision to make local engines materialized and More advanced Navigation suite which has Fire and Forget capability along with Tactical/Satellite datalinks added into it which will allow for the Re-tasking/Re-attack capabilities

Now My working theory no.1 is

Babur-1 A is where they tested advance avionics and new Navigation/Satellite features

Babur-1B is where they tested new/upgraded/Indigenous Engine

Working Theory no.2

That indigenous took its time to develop, Hence RAAD-2 took 3 years from the unveiling in March 23 2017 to actual test firing in 2020

Working theory No.3 - Which is based on facts

Army is Sheepish when it comes to announcing new capabilities.

But HARBA expost version revealed alot. What Army meant when they used to say " Upgraded avionics and Navigation system" is True fire and forget and Re Attack Capabilities.


This Theory is supported by the actual imagery evidence plus what ISPR has been disclosing about ranges

The New Indigenous engine has led an increase in the ranges of All the cruise missiles i.e BABUR-1B, RAAD-2 and allowed HARBA to be exported with the range caped at 290 KM


RE-Attack Capabilities has been introduced in ALL the cruise missiles.

Babur-1 B ( A & 2) - Addition of new Sensor

Babur-1b

RAAD-2 new antenna

HARBA

As it is self explanatory in the poster


Working Theory No.4

This decade will be all about Making advance engine and propulsion tech . Since the previous 2 decades were about Perfecting navigation and other things for the cruise missile

Pakistan is successful in manufacturing a local engine. But that engine is not efficient. So In order to see the 1500 KM + Ranges for Babur or 1000 KM+ range for RAAD 2. We have to wait another 5-6 years. Because Engine upgrade cycles occurring continuously . There will be multiple iterations. Harba and Babur propulsion teams are continuously working to further upgrade the local engine that has been put into production after successfully ironing out all the kinks. Basic version will be made into an advanced version

Babur-1 B that tested enhanced range is just the starting. In coming years once Pakistani engine Tech gets more mature, The speed and Range will increase in multiples

Plus the Pakistan also working on Supersonic/Hypersonic. So that engine R&D will also be happening in parallel of newly developed indigenous engines


@JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @HRK @kursed @SQ8 @PanzerKiel @The Eagle

 

[The Eagle]

Mid Course, re-attack and fire forget capabilities were supposedly completing before engine or range area, hence, we see clear announcement. Regarding engines or range, we shall remember that true range is never declared at-least the range for tactical reasons keeping the surprise element at hand for the enemy. I don't doubt the theory of low range given the engine but, I see that a lot is progressing and achieved several milestones.

I will say that, ISPR has been very careful in range references. We just don't want to draw too much of attention and concerns of world police but, the capability is kept since it's not about boasting on current stage.

 

[RAMPAGE]

Working Theory No.4 which is 99 % Probability

This Theory is supported by the actual imagery evidence plus what ISPR has been disclosing about ranges

The New Indigenous engine

What "imagery evidence?"

 

[Bratva]

What "imagery evidence?"

Will Pakistan export Harba with an imported engine in Harba ?

 

[RAMPAGE]

Will Pakistan export Harba with an imported engine in Harba ?

I cannot say. Would that be a problem?

 

[Bratva]

I cannot say. Would that be a problem?

Yup. Exporting cruise missile is the biggest indication that One has mastered engine tech.

Pakistan already violated MTCR by putting Imported engines in Baseline Babur-1 and RAAD-1 but since those were Chinese or Ukranian engines, It got away with it. . You only export Your cruise missile when you have your own engine in them. Take an example of any export-grade cruise missiles. Each engine in them is developed by manufacturer itself

 

[Great Janjua]

Why is Harbah production limited.

 

[RAMPAGE]

Yup. Exporting cruise missile is the biggest indication that One has mastered engine tech.

Pakistan already violated MTCR by putting Imported engines in Baseline Babur-1 and RAAD-1 but since those were Chinese or Ukranian engines, It got away with it. . You only export Your cruise missile when you have your own engine in them. Take an example of any export-grade cruise missiles. Each engine in them is developed by manufacturer itself

Not necessarily. I thought the European consortiums export a number of jointly-developed cruise missiles? I imagine exporting a cruise missile with an imported engine should not be a problem as long as the range does not violate MTCR, no?

 

[RAMPAGE]

@Bratva

Also, why do you think they are serious about exporting Harba? The presentation is beyond poor. Almost no specifications been provided. They did not even bother to send a dummy for display. It all seems suspect.

 

[Bratva]

Not necessarily. I thought the European consortiums export a number of jointly-developed cruise missiles? I imagine exporting a cruise missile with an imported engine should not be a problem as long as the range does not violate MTCR, no?

Storm Shadow/Scalp - French/British Cruise Missile using French Engine and exported to half dozen friendly countries. Point being French cruise missile using french engine

KEPD 350 - German/Swedish - British Engine Because UK Allowed them to use it

Now who will allow Pakistan to use engine in its export cruise missile models? China? why would they when they already our competitor by selling C-802 A

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Will Pakistan export Harba with an imported engine in Harba ?

Yup. Exporting cruise missile is the biggest indication that One has mastered engine tech.

Pakistan already violated MTCR by putting Imported engines in Baseline Babur-1 and RAAD-1 but since those were Chinese or Ukranian engines, It got away with it. . You only export Your cruise missile when you have your own engine in them. Take an example of any export-grade cruise missiles. Each engine in them is developed by manufacturer itself

Not necessarily. I thought the European consortiums export a number of jointly-developed cruise missiles? I imagine exporting a cruise missile with an imported engine should not be a problem as long as the range does not violate MTCR, no?

The key thing with Europe is that the consortium still operates as one vendor. So, each party within that consortium benefits from a sale (e.g., France sells the engine, the UK and Italy split the electronics, etc). However, the one vendor (MBDA) operates across all of those countries.

However, Pakistan doesn't have that kind of flexibility with anyone. Even China would want to export its own cruise missiles, so there's no point in relying on COTS Chinese engines as Beijing can nix the deal. I'd back @Bratva's assessment, i.e., Pakistan will only offer Harbah for export if it can indigenously manufacture every critical input.

IIRC we have an instrumented weapons test range and wind tunnel facilities under construction. If given the funding, we could see some neat indigenous cruise missile work on our end. Who knows, we might finally develop something like the Raptor-3 -- i.e., take the best of H-2/H-4, but built on an air-breathing engine for a cruise missile-type range.

 

[RAMPAGE]

Storm Shadow/Scalp - French/British Cruise Missile using French Engine and exported to half dozen friendly countries. Point being French cruise missile using french engine

KEPD 350 - German/Swedish - British Engine Because UK Allowed them to use it

Now who will allow Pakistan to use engine in its export cruise missile models? China? why would they when they already our competitor by selling C-802 A

The same reason they allowed us to export the JF-17. We are a huge client. Call it courtesy or throwing a bone to an important customer.

 

[Bratva]

@Bratva

Also, why do you think they are serious about exporting Harba? The presentation is beyond poor. Almost no specifications been provided. They did not even bother to send a dummy for display. It all seems suspect.

JF-17 is suffering from exact piss poor presentation skills, no? Yet it has been able to find some export customers. GIDS are hopeful they can compete with European missile makers who are selling to Middle Eastern Navies

 

[RAMPAGE]

The key thing with Europe is that the consortium still operates as one vendor. So, each party within that consortium benefits from a sale (e.g., France sells the engine, the UK and Italy split the electronics, etc). However, the one vendor (MBDA) operates across all of those countries.

However, Pakistan doesn't have that kind of flexibility with anyone. Even China would want to export its own cruise missiles, so there's no point in relying on COTS Chinese engines as Beijing can nix the deal. I'm back @Bratva's assessment, i.e., Pakistan will only offer Harbah for export if it can indigenously manufacture every critical input.

You and @Bratva may well be right. I am just bringing another perspective.

JF-17 is suffering from exact piss poor presentation skills, no? Yet it has been able to find some export customers. GIDS are hopeful they can compete with European missile makers who are selling to Middle Eastern Navies

No, the JF-17 export presentation has been poor but not nearly as poor. I feel it is unfair to compare the two.

The key thing with Europe is that the consortium still operates as one vendor. So, each party within that consortium benefits from a sale (e.g., France sells the engine, the UK and Italy split the electronics, etc). However, the one vendor (MBDA) operates across all of those countries.

However, Pakistan doesn't have that kind of flexibility with anyone. Even China would want to export its own cruise missiles, so there's no point in relying on COTS Chinese engines as Beijing can nix the deal. I'd back @Bratva's assessment, i.e., Pakistan will only offer Harbah for export if it can indigenously manufacture every critical input.

IIRC we have an instrumented weapons test range and wind tunnel facilities under construction. If given the funding, we could see some neat indigenous cruise missile work on our end. Who knows, we might finally develop something like the Raptor-3 -- i.e., take the best of H-2/H-4, but built on an air-breathing engine for a cruise missile-type range.

View attachment 827013

Man, I loved that SOW. What a pitiful story.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

JF-17 is suffering from exact piss poor presentation skills, no? Yet it has been able to find some export customers. GIDS are hopeful they can compete with European missile makers who are selling to Middle Eastern Navies

The ramjet applications (SMASH?) would take things to a whole other level.