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New US Wars for Asia

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We having been alerting Pakistani readers to pay special attention to events inside US and in particular to how and WHY the US armed forces are being prepared - ostensibly to meet "New Threats" ( a new and improved version of GWOT) - Pakistani readers should pay special attention to how and why Pakistan will come under greater pressure by the US and how and why this pressure may express itself militarily:



Iraq and Afghanistan Eroding Transatlantic Bonds
Posted: 30 Aug 2010
Wars fundamentally change militaries. For example, the bloody and muddy stalemate of World War I led defeated Germany to invest in the innovative use of armor and firepower to break that stalemate. The U.S. experience in Vietnam led to the rise of the professional and all-volunteer force that is now fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq.
America’s current wars are also rapidly changing the U.S. military.

The emphasis on rapid network centric warfare against near-peer competitors has given way to the “COINdinistas” with their emphasis on small wars, reconstruction, and cultural awareness. The change is easy to see for even a casual observer; compare a picture of a U.S. soldier from the invasion period of the Iraq War, with a picture of the soldiers and Marines fighting in Afghanistan today. Even though they are separated by less than ten years, they seem to come from different universes.

Change in military tactics, technology, and strategy are comparatively obvious. Less visibly, the socio-cultural connections that the U.S. military has with friends and allies around the world are also changing in a manner may not bode well for the trans-Atlantic security alliance.

In military terms, the U.S. military was largely focused on Europe during the 20th Century. America fought two world wars on the European continent, stationed hundreds of thousands of troops and hundreds of nuclear weapons on European soil, and developed NATO to defend the continent against Soviet aggression and cementing U.S. influence in Europe. Today, matters look different to American leaders, both civilian and military. The rising powers of the world, and therefore the potential for great power conflict, can be found around the Pacific and America is fighting two wars, both very far from Europe. Thus, the strategic priorities have shifted away from Europe, and towards the Middle East and the Pacific. A majority of America’s deployable air and sea power can now be found in the Pacific, and the U.S. currently has only 75,000 troops stationed in Europe, down from a high of close to 450,000 in 1957. This trend is set to accelerate and be reinforced in the coming years and decades, due to the current wars being fought, and this will have a deep and lasting impact on the American military’s affinity, or lack thereof, for Europe.

Older generations of American officers remember their time in Europe with fondness, and a tour or two there usually offered the opportunity to get to know Europe and its people quite well. The presence of U.S. forces, and their families, in Europe has created a strong social and cultural bond between U.S. service members and their European host countries. This bond should not be underestimated as one of the underpinnings of the trans-Atlantic security alliance. Today, however, the bases in Europe are little more than launching pads for deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, and the soldiers and officers there have little time to get to know the countries they are stationed in. To boot, and as mentioned earlier, relatively few U.S. service members are even stationed in Europe to begin with.

In addition to the smaller U.S. foot print in Europe, and decreasing affinity that U.S. service members have for Europe's people and civic culture, many U.S. officers are disappointed by the performance of their European allies in Iraq and Afghanistan. For example, many perceive the Spanish performance in Iraq as largely ineffective, and Spanish troops departed Iraq quickly after the Madrid bombing and the ouster of the government in the election three days hence. Many in the U.S. military would argue that the UK left Basra in less than great shape. The British example is of special concern, since it is America’s closest ally, and that British forces used to have a reputation before Iraq of almost mystical abilities when it came to counter-insurgency and policing unruly and far-off corners of the world (what with all that experience in Northern Ireland, Bosnia, and running an empire that the sun never set on).

Things are not so different in Afghanistan. National caveats make some nations unable to conduct the full spectrum of operations, and lack of equipment and platforms, such as helicopters, makes others less than up to snuff in comparison with U.S. forces. It is not uncommon to hear junior American officers today propose alternative names for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF); I Suck At Fighting, I Saw an American Fight, or I Sunbathe At Forward operating Bases are some of the more popular ones currently in use. In the future, it may lead some American officers to ask themselves why they should bother with NATO.

All this could of course be written off as young lieutenants, captains, and majors griping, a favorite pastime of soldiers everywhere for time eternity. However, some of these young leaders will one day be service chiefs, combatant commanders, and chairmen of the joint staff, and the conflicts and operations they participated in as young officers will influence them deeply. Generals such as Colin Powell, Norman Schwartzkopf, Barry McCaffrey, and James L. Jones were deeply influenced by their experiences as young platoon leaders during the Vietnam War, and they helped drive a major transformation of the U.S. military based in large part on that experience. One would be mistaken if the Iraq and Afghanistan did not leave a deep impression on the U.S. military of tomorrow as well.

The confluence of shifting strategic priorities for the U.S., along with a military increasingly unfamiliar with Europe at best or disdainful of America’s European allies at worst, could sever important military-to-military links that serve to underpin America’s current security relationship with Europe. The loss of this link, and what it means for NATO, may be one of the longest lasting effects of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Magnus Nordenman is associate director of the Atlantic Council's International Security program
 
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Utter nonsense? Not at all. As the US declines it will not do so gracefully, it's only effective instrument now is it's armed might and it is considerable. As the US negotiates it's decline and finally focuses on Asia, it finds that it's policy options are limited - indeed, recent US and Vietnamese military exercises, modest though they were should be seen in just this light - Similarly the US proclivity towards creating additional challeneges for Chinese policy makers, whether in Central Asia or South Asia, similarly ought to be seen in this light.

The Allainces with old Europe are fraying because old Europe does no tfeel the compulsion to engage in crusades, the US does and hopes to win favour ($$) in Asia among those who feel insecure by the rise of China. And therefore the focus on Asia, in particular the focus by the pentagon on Asia.
 
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Interesting article, but kinda without a firm conclusion.

IMO, as the US's economic influence wanes, the military is going to get even more overstretched. I see more overseas adventures, albeit smaller then Iraq or Afghanistan, as an instrument to justify the military budget.

Also, I hope they don't demonize China for this purpose. The Iran bogey should keep them going for a while, though......
 
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Utter nonsense? Not at all. As the US declines it will not do so gracefully, it's only effective instrument now is it's armed might and it is considerable. As the US negotiates it's decline and finally focuses on Asia, it finds that it's policy options are limited - indeed, recent US and Vietnamese military exercises, modest though they were should be seen in just this light - Similarly the US proclivity towards creating additional challeneges for Chinese policy makers, whether in Central Asia or South Asia, similarly ought to be seen in this light.

The Allainces with old Europe are fraying because old Europe does no tfeel the compulsion to engage in crusades, the US does and hopes to win favour ($$) in Asia among those who feel insecure by the rise of China. And therefore the focus on Asia, in particular the focus by the pentagon on Asia.

The U.S. cannot do anything if Asia is unified like Europe. Asian countries invited the U.S. and we are facing the consequences. The U.S. should not interfere in our REGIONAL problems! Alas, we need a mediator in almost everything. Dollars etc is just a symptom of a larger disease. The larger disease is very simple to explain!! Asian countries never thought of forming a block like European Union. Partly because of cultural differences and the rest remains on our 'Asian ruler' mentality.

Everyone wants to be the ruler of Asia...
 
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In our region I see, India being very myopic over captive Kashmir and Vietnam also, very short sighted - both these efforts will fail to deliver -- China' s rise had to first wait for China to make or do whatever it had to, to resolve all major outstanding issues with neighbors - look at Turkiye's policy of "no problems with neigbors" and see how that created a climate for the ascendance of Turkiye's economy and geo-strategic position as a arbiter of conflicts, not a promoter of conflicts.

For India, a similar decision remains, if it cannot muster the will do resolve this issue, it will not make the kind of jump it's economy, it's people need it to make -- and so these represent major opportunitites for a declining US to use these conflicts to negotiate it's decline.

Is the US decline inevitable? Yes, it is - but that doe snot mean it will not be a resurgent power in the next 15 to 25 year time frame - the US has a wealth of talent, a huge well developed internal market - but it may be that leadership will appear in the US determined to make a better more prosperous US - such a US will find great appeal abroad, especially that " a Better US" bit.
 
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In our region I see, India being very myopic over captive Kashmir and Vietnam also, very short sighted - both these efforts will fail to deliver -- China' s rise had to first wait for China to make or do whatever it had to, to resolve all major outstanding issues with neighbors - look at Turkiye's policy of "no problems with neigbors" and see how that created a climate for the ascendance of Turkiye's economy and geo-strategic position as a arbiter of conflicts, not a promoter of conflicts.

For India, a similar decision remains, if it cannot muster the will do resolve this issue, it will not make the kind of jump it's economy, it's people need it to make -- and so these represent major opportunitites for a declining US to use these conflicts to negotiate it's decline.

Is the US decline inevitable? Yes, it is - but that doe snot mean it will not be a resurgent power in the next 15 to 25 year time frame - the US has a wealth of talent, a huge well developed internal market - but it may be that leadership will appear in the US determined to make a better more prosperous US - such a US will find great appeal abroad, especially that " a Better US" bit.

I disagree with that. India's problems majorl;y are internal and not external or neighbour focussed. If we can get our own house in order, we can grow much faster. And we already are growing with the second fastest rate in the world. We just need to sort out our internal issues. Agreed the major external issue is with Pakistan over Kashmir but even that can be solved without involving Pakistan. Hence, even the Kashmir issue can be classified internally. BD, SL and Nepal though have problems with India, they arent too huge to trouble us for a long period of time. I am not trying top say that these countries are inconsequential, just that our problems with them arent big enough to impede our growth.

China and Turkey's case was different than India's. They have bigger and economically more powerful neighbours then India's. And consequently there problems were much bigger and needed solving before they could grow unhindered. Again I am not saying that due to the above logic, India shouldnt solve its its issues with its neighbours. It definitely should as we dont want a hostile neighborhood. But India's growth wasn't and will not be hostage to its external disputes.
 
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I disagree with that. India's problems majorl;y are internal and not external or neighbour focussed. If we can get our own house in order, we can grow much faster. And we already are growing with the second fastest rate in the world. We just need to sort out our internal issues. Agreed the major external issue is with Pakistan over Kashmir but even that can be solved without involving Pakistan. Hence, even the Kashmir issue can be classified internally. BD, SL and Nepal though have problems with India, they arent too huge to trouble us for a long period of time. I am not trying top say that these countries are inconsequential, just that our problems with them arent big enough to impede our growth.

China and Turkey's case was different than India's. They have bigger and economically more powerful neighbours then India's. And consequently there problems were much bigger and needed solving before they could grow unhindered. Again I am not saying that due to the above logic, India shouldnt solve its its issues with its neighbours. It definitely should as we dont want a hostile neighborhood. But India's growth wasn't and will not be hostage to its external disputes.


If it was that easy, you would have done it by now. Exaggeration is an inborn trait but the way you did is a pure rant.
 
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China and Turkey's case was different than India's. They have bigger and economically more powerful neighbours then India's

It's an interesting pickle Indian friends have gotten themselves into, While the other powers mentioned first solved their problems and then their economies and geo-strategic posiiton in the world began to rise, our Indian friends wish to turn that reality around, they are more powerful than their neighbors and therefore do not have to solve their problems with their neighbors - good luck, you'll need it if you keep these kinds of delusions as if reality - See, it's true that India is more powerful than her neighbors, but her neighbors, especially Pakistan continue to deny India victory - in Bangladesh, India have a lot of work to do regain the confidence of the government and people and everyday, Bangladesh and China grow closer, In Nepal, again, Indian diplomacy has taken a hit and CHina is ascendant, in Lanka, well, the tamil tigers are history and Lanka appriciates the assiatnce of Pakistan and China -- it's not that India is hated in any of these countries, rather it's that India might do well to underestimate itself and not it's neighbors -- but live and learn
 
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