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New US chip export controls wreaking havoc on Chinas chip industry and causing industry wide decapitation

Thank you for the detailed information. I was unaware that the Big Guys do wafer starts in China based fabs. If they fab from wafer to die, most definitely the process will be impacted with loss of process knowhow, especially in the advanced nodes finer than 130 nm.

1, China can make 7nm chips by itself.

2, China can mass produce 14nm chips.

3, China can meet its demand for 28nm chips.

4, The efforts of TSMC and Samsung to mass produce 3nm chips have failed due to their inability to overcome the quantum tunneling effect. They can only produce and provide a small number of 3nm chips with very low yield.

5, Intel's efforts to make 10nm chips have failed.


Conclusion: Taiwan TSMC and South Korea Samsung have the best chip technology, and their mass production capacity is 5nm. China's Shanghai SMIC and the US Intel belong to the second tier, and their mass production capacity is 14nm.

BTW: China is the largest semiconductor market in the world. China consumes more than 70% of its chips every year.






 
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1, China can make 7nm chips by itself.

2, China can mass produce 14nm chips.

3, China can meet its demand for 28nm chips.

4, The efforts of TSMC and Samsung to mass produce 3nm chips have failed due to their inability to overcome the quantum tunneling effect. They can only produce and provide a small number of 3nm chips with very low yield.

5, Intel's efforts to make 10nm chips have failed.







I am sure they have all the fabs. It would be nice if they would put some of the designs on the market, like the Loongson chip or the computers made from it. Some architectural diversity would be interesting, instead of everyone making copycats.
 
Yantze Memory - YMTC got onto the US political awareness when Apple previously signed with YMTC to use YMTC's NAND memory for iPhone for Chinese market. These domains of technology is dominated by the US and looking for attention always invite more US political awareness and attempts to stop the domain from developing. Battery technology is one where it is simply not the case and US does not have such control over global supply chain and technology ownership. So it is far less active in pulling these types of actions. As for semiconductors, any progress basically asks for US government action. Hence China has not entered any new supercomputers since 2016 despite building several exascale machines since.

1, China can make 7nm chips by itself.

2, China can mass produce 14nm chips.

3, China can meet its demand for 28nm chips.

4, The efforts of TSMC and Samsung to mass produce 3nm chips have failed due to their inability to overcome the quantum tunneling effect. They can only produce and provide a small number of 3nm chips with very low yield.

5, Intel's efforts to make 10nm chips have failed.


Conclusion: Taiwan TSMC and South Korea Samsung have the best chip technology, and their mass production capacity is 5nm. China's Shanghai SMIC and the US Intel belong to the second tier, and their mass production capacity is 14nm.

BTW: China is the largest semiconductor market in the world. China consumes more than 70% of its chips every year.







Some sections still depend on US held technology and done in China based on the Chinese American experts working with Chinese companies in some cases to fill in the availability. But the extent of this is actually quite unknown. We'll only know if in months time these companies are pumping out the same number or chips despite bans and employees "all" leaving.

I bet CCP will quietly offer some Chinese American ones some deals and lucrative sums to give up US citizenship.
 
Thank you for the detailed information. I was unaware that the Big Guys do wafer starts in China based fabs. If they fab from wafer to die, most definitely the process will be impacted with loss of process knowhow, especially in the advanced nodes finer than 130 nm.
What we normally see on PDF is a flood of comments, from people who have literally no experience in the field, going on and on and on about how 'easy' it would be for China to compensate for these US sanctions. They will post revenue figures without a clue that revenue figures are lagging indicators of previous completed contracts. What they do not have are leading indicators such as suspended contracts if any and/or increased customer demands for unscheduled audits. No company want unscheduled audits such as when Foxconn had a string of workplace suicides that prompted Apple to do their own audits that eventually forced Foxconn and Apple to reveal their business practices.

The human knowledge and experience loss stemming from this latest sanction is serious. In engineering, you have a problem and its root cause(s). You fix the problem THEN gather resources for the root cause(s). Sometimes maybe you get lucky and fix both at the same time, but most of the time, the root cause(s) are geographically and/or time distance away from you. By the time you gathered the data that just HINT at a root cause, literally thousands of wafers passed the step(s) that created the root cause(s), and by the time those wafers (virtually) made it to my desk, I have to make a decision to either downgrade the wafers or scrap them altogether. Downgrade or scrap are revenue loss. I never buy any semicon products from Joe Schmoe Flash Company or such lower tier vendors. Downgraded dies are dies that have functional capability losses discovered at Probe. A 64g die would be 'burned' down to 32g or even lower. You do not know how long such dies will last for your valuable data. With this coming human knowledge/experience loss, there WILL be a rash of 'issues' coming out of Chinese fabs. You better stock up on the current supply while you can afford to.
 
What we normally see on PDF is a flood of comments, from people who have literally no experience in the field, going on and on and on about how 'easy' it would be for China to compensate for these US sanctions. They will post revenue figures without a clue that revenue figures are lagging indicators of previous completed contracts. What they do not have are leading indicators such as suspended contracts if any and/or increased customer demands for unscheduled audits. No company want unscheduled audits such as when Foxconn had a string of workplace suicides that prompted Apple to do their own audits that eventually forced Foxconn and Apple to reveal their business practices.

The human knowledge and experience loss stemming from this latest sanction is serious. In engineering, you have a problem and its root cause(s). You fix the problem THEN gather resources for the root cause(s). Sometimes maybe you get lucky and fix both at the same time, but most of the time, the root cause(s) are geographically and/or time distance away from you. By the time you gathered the data that just HINT at a root cause, literally thousands of wafers passed the step(s) that created the root cause(s), and by the time those wafers (virtually) made it to my desk, I have to make a decision to either downgrade the wafers or scrap them altogether. Downgrade or scrap are revenue loss. I never buy any semicon products from Joe Schmoe Flash Company or such lower tier vendors. Downgraded dies are dies that have functional capability losses discovered at Probe. A 64g die would be 'burned' down to 32g or even lower. You do not know how long such dies will last for your valuable data. With this coming human knowledge/experience loss, there WILL be a rash of 'issues' coming out of Chinese fabs. You better stock up on the current supply while you can afford to.
Sadly, a lot of comments on this site are pissing contests and Ad hominem attacks than a true platform for exchange of ideas. Unfortunately, that is true of most sites, and they tend to deteriorate absent some moderation.
 
Is it true that Americunts lost access to the world's largest semiconductor market?
Shouldn’t Emperor Xi be celebrating?
But comments from his bots indicate a burning smell. That says it all.
 
Is there any similar restriction on Taiwanese staff working in China? How about South Korean or Japanese?
 
Some sections still depend on US held technology and done in China based on the Chinese American experts working with Chinese companies in some cases to fill in the availability. But the extent of this is actually quite unknown. We'll only know if in months time these companies are pumping out the same number or chips despite bans and employees "all" leaving.

I bet CCP will quietly offer some Chinese American ones some deals and lucrative sums to give up US citizenship.
I don't think so. China is not short of talents.

And there is no shortage of nationalists and patriots among the top talents of our nation.

When China needed railway, Zhan Tianyou chose to return home.
When China needed artillery, Zhu Rui chose to return home.
When China needed hybrid rice, Yuan Longping chose to return home.
When China needed ICBM, Qian Xuesen chose to return home.
When China needed the atomic bomb, Deng Jia chose to return home first.
When China needed a hydrogen bomb, Yu Min chose to return home.
When China needed nuclear submarines, Huang Xuhua chose to return home.
When China needed satellites, Sun Jiadong chose to return home.

Even in the poorest and most dangerous times, we will never lack the elites who are willing to devote themselves to the nation.
 
The harsh truth is that the Chinese market consumes 70% of the chips, and China has the ability to manufacture most of the chips.

Without the Chinese market, I don't know whether American chip companies can survive and develop.

But I know that Chinese chip companies will welcome a period of great development.

Oh how did the world ever get into the computer age without sales in China...it must have been a complete miracle.

I bet 20 years from now people from India will be saying without the Indian market all the companies in the world would never have been successful. Deja vu :rolleyes1:


Come on the world was doing just fine before China/India..stop thinking it wasn't.
 
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That is fine. Nothing wrong with ignorance. Each of us is ignorant about many things. The issue is whether we admit it or not. The important thing for you to know about the PDF Chinese is that they are openly contemptuous of knowledge and experience. They genuinely believe they do not need to know/experience to blab about anything.

Anyway...I am currently in the semicon manufacturing industry, specifically at the Probe step of the entire process.


The probe step, or Probe Functional/Parametric Dept, is where the semicon wafer is actually tested for their functionality, whether it is DRAM, NOR, NAND, SRAM, and many other designs. My job is in process engineering, meaning I make sure the wafer move out of the fab and into the customer's hands with no issues. I make sure Production move the product efficiently, the Functional/Parametric engineers codes works, and the final disposition of each wafer is correct. In other words, I have to know a little bit of everyone else's jobs.

Intel, Samsung, Hynix, Micron, just a few large names, have fabs in mainland China, as well as outside of China. Every step from wafer start to die extraction. Some fabs maybe too small to have the complete process flow, and usually extraction, or Back End (BE), is offloaded to another facility. There are Chinese fabs that are contract fabs or foundries. They usually work from someone else's designs, such as Apple who design the chip but do not have the mass volume capability, so Apple contract that volume production out.

In reference to my post 24...

Each fab is treated uniquely by all customers, meaning that just because SMIC Fab 1 make the standard 64gb NAND wafers, that does not mean Fab 2 can produce the same without passing engineering qualifications tests by the customers. A new fab is treated with the same suspicion and it is industry practice. Depending on the product, a wafer can take up to four months to make it to Probe. Then the customer will do their own testing on the dies they extracted. Then they will literally scrap all those wafers/dies and wait for the next engineering batch. They will do that until a batch of wafers passed their tests. Then once the customer approved, the process is locked down, and wafers from this approved process can be made into consumer level products, whether it is an SD card or memory module for a smart refrigerator or fuel controller for the car, whatever it is. If the process is changed, such as a new wafer processing hardware, the customers must be notified, and the entire aforementioned qualification process starts anew. Depending on the product, the qualification process can take up to two yrs.

As a side note, for several yrs I pointed that out and not one of the PDF Chinese have dared to challenge what I said because they know that I am the real deal and they are frauds. I have debunked many of their claims about the semicon industry.

As far as these latest moves by the US, the resignations of so many engineers WILL worry customers. The resignations are the equivalent of a major process change, and if a fab have enough engineers who quit, the entire fab will be downgraded to 'engineering qualification' status. No customer will take a chance. It does not matter if the final product is a smart refrigerator. If a flawed die from an unqualified fab made it into that smart refrigerator, or more serious like an automated pump in an oil pipeline, the failure could be catastrophic costing the customer money or even lives. ISO and customers routinely audit fabs and they do it independently of each other. If Panasonic find unacceptable particle count in an deposition chamber, Panasonic can decert the entire fab. Other customers can still buy and use products from that fab, but usually, if one major customer decert a fab, others will follow.

So do not trust what the PDF Chinese say about China's semicon industry. They are not here to educate and inform, but to outright lie and mislead.

I remember a chinese posting a thread "china chipping away with semi conductor dominance". I used to think otherwise.

I don't think so. China is not short of talents.

And there is no shortage of nationalists and patriots among the top talents of our nation.

When China needed railway, Zhan Tianyou chose to return home.
When China needed artillery, Zhu Rui chose to return home.
When China needed hybrid rice, Yuan Longping chose to return home.
When China needed ICBM, Qian Xuesen chose to return home.
When China needed the atomic bomb, Deng Jia chose to return home first.
When China needed a hydrogen bomb, Yu Min chose to return home.
When China needed nuclear submarines, Huang Xuhua chose to return home.
When China needed satellites, Sun Jiadong chose to return home.

Even in the poorest and most dangerous times, we will never lack the elites who are willing to devote themselves to the nation.

But how many chinese innovations are reliable??

China do execute the project at speed and meet the time lines. But when it comes to quality and reliability, there are questions always.

Oh how did the world ever get into the computer age without sales in China...it must have been a complete miracle.

I bet 20 years from now people from India will be saying without the Indian market all the companies in the world would never have been successful. Deja vu :rolleyes1:


Come on the world was doing just fine before China/India..stop thinking it wasn't.

why bring India into this with some imagination.
 
I heard Intel is firing its employees. For semiconductor engineers, being a poor and jobless American citizen or being a rich non-American is not a hard choice.

Things are never that bad in USA that I have to work in China

The harsh truth is that the Chinese market consumes 70% of the chips, and China has the ability to manufacture most of the chips.

Without the Chinese market, I don't know whether American chip companies can survive and develop.

But I know that Chinese chip companies will welcome a period of great development.

Does the 70% include all the chips stuffed on Apple iPhones, Dell computer, Cisco networking gear ?
 
According to China's plan, 70% of the chips can be made on their own by 2025. Now it's 27%.
 
I heard Intel is firing its employees. For semiconductor engineers, being a poor and jobless American citizen or being a rich non-American is not a hard choice.
Dude, seems some people here are indulging in wishful thinking to suit their ego and pride. There is no denying that if this law is really real and implemented which seems to be the case, then it would have a drastic impact on China's semiconductor industry as a whole. There is no denying that.
The thing is that, the US is now treating China as a real rival and adversary(almost on a war footing) and to make it even more serious, the US is even ready to take economic losses just for its national security and maintain its technological lead/hegemony in the world. Its now almost official US policy and backed by all sides of US political spectrum. So China better get used to this new reality......no more hidding your so called "strength" and bidding your time, China is already too big to hide and the US won't allow you to hide anymore anyway. All bets seems to be off now.
China can't continue relying on US technology to carry on powering its industries and tech companies platforms. That era is over. The US wont allow that anymore. In fact I can predict that maybe even your mobile companies will one day be banned from using Android and your computers might even be baned from windows app(which they rely on massively and any other US technology/software product(like Intel processors etc) .

In fact if the US cuts any Chinese company/official/public off from their internet platforms like Youtube, Twitter, instagram, facebook etc etc China has almost no way of interacting with the world , since US technology/internet companies almost dominate the globe and discussion. China's own internet company are basically just restricted to their own borders. And coupled with the so called stupid Great firewall, average Chinese have been discouraged from accessing foreign websites or interacting with world audiences and even when they want to do so, they have to do so while relying on foriegn platforms(mostly US/Western ones, not chinese ones). In fact even the few that try to do so can only do so through VPN(like all of you Chinese on this site living in China do. Lol ) this shows how much China is lagging behind in this aspect.....reason Chinas own propaganda can only stop at its own borders.

In short, CCP will now need to start putting money where her mouth is, they will have to create an entire ecosystem themselves from a reliable working Operating system to every sector in semiconductor industry, to almsot anything high tech , Which takes alot of time, skills, technology, knowledge, planning, experience and huge investments to pull off. So no more freeriding on US laxism.

NB: If you really believe Chinese citizens who tried so hard to get US citizenship will now give up their US citizenship because of working in China's semi conductor industry then i have a bridge to sell you. Lol Many might want to help their home country develop as well but not at the expense of their US citizenship. Just like many members on here I guess 🤣
 
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