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New US chip export controls wreaking havoc on Chinas chip industry and causing industry wide decapitation

It's not just me. TSMC founder Morris Chang for many times showed his pessimistic attitude toward building fabs in US. Semiconductor industry concentrates in East Asia is for good reasons. US government's efforts will fail miserably.

There is even low level talks of TSMC becoming an American company just in case there is a war between China and Taiwan.
 
Many, MANY engineers and scientists in global semiconductor fab are Chinese Americans. Some of those working in China instead of other places are forced to choose between their job and pay and US citizenship.

They contribute a smaller share of China's semiconductor catch up and progress than people believe and what some of these China obsessed think tankers say.

Even if all leave (which won't happen as many will simply choose China's counter offer) China's own semiconductor manufacturing will remain intact and continue to progress. Only a total idiot will believe in what this Schneider is saying. It is up to Americans to continue living in such fantasies. You guys said the same thing when Trump placed all those bans and yet China's progress went from strength to strength and developed 14nm fabs and then 7nm fabs.

These claims by US "thank tanks" isn't just going to age like milk, it is expired milk already. If they wished to do maximum damage to China's chip industry, they should have done this 15 years ago.

This new escalation is simply admission and realization that China has caught up and is far further ahead than they believed (yet again) and requires new escalations to continue trying to push China back. Again after all the drama and noise making from US, China continues making chips and continues developing new chips. Yawn.

You guys really don't see the desperation here with US move?

This is their last vestige. Total absolute choose me or him kind of move. Why didn't they do it before is the answer in why it won't be effective. China already has every single part of chipmaking down to 7nm. The few foreign experts working in China's chip industry is fewer than Chinese experts working in US chip industry. I don't see China telling their citizens working in the US to choose between citizenship and jobs lol. They will simply choose US citizenship in many cases and why lose the talent and why even force individuals to choose.

That forcing is the desperation and it is about as effective as pissing at a wildfire. You think it contributes and that's not exactly untrue but it's just a laughable joke. Maybe when you pissed on the fire as it was just starting.
 
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Many, MANY engineers and scientists in global semiconductor fab are Chinese Americans. Some of those working in China instead of other places are forced to choose between their job and pay and US citizenship.

They contribute a smaller share of China's semiconductor catch up and progress than people believe and what some of these China obsessed think tankers say.

Even if all leave (which won't happen as many will simply choose China's counter offer) China's own semiconductor manufacturing will remain intact and continue to progress. Only a total idiot will believe in what this Schneider is saying. It is up to Americans to continue living in such fantasies. You guys said the same thing when Trump placed all those bans and yet China's progress went from strength to strength and developed 14nm fabs and then 7nm fabs.

These claims by US "thank tanks" isn't just going to age like milk, it is expired milk already. If they wished to do maximum damage to China's chip industry, they should have done this 15 years ago.

This new escalation is simply admission and realization that China has caught up and is far further ahead than they believed (yet again) and requires new escalations to continue trying to push China back. Again after all the drama and noise making from US, China continues making chips and continues developing new chips. Yawn.

You guys really don't see the desperation here with US move?

This is their last vestige. Total absolute choose me or him kind of move. Why didn't they do it before is the answer in why it won't be effective. China already has every single part of chipmaking down to 7nm. The few foreign experts working in China's chip industry is fewer than Chinese experts working in US chip industry. I don't see China telling their citizens working in the US to choose between citizenship and jobs lol. They will simply choose US citizenship in many cases and why lose the talent and why even force individuals to choose.

That forcing is the desperation and it is about as effective as pissing at a wildfire. You think it contributes and that's not exactly untrue but it's just a laughable joke. Maybe when you pissed on the fire as it was just starting.
This day would be foreseeable from November 2016 when Trump won, considering Anti-China rhetoric was a main plank of his manifesto. So, the question is, is China well prepared for this day, 6 years later, and we should expect minimal disruption?
 
Decapitation? Maybe if this was a shock announcement five years ago. But China has had years to prepare for this. It will keep making progress in technological independence.
 
This day would be foreseeable from November 2016 when Trump won, considering Anti-China rhetoric was a main plank of his manifesto. So, the question is, is China well prepared for this day, 6 years later, and we should expect minimal disruption?

We will see. Indicators would be output from those fabs, Chinese electronics exports, other announcements/actions from either side (I assume Chinese government would offer certain American Chinese engineers some deals basically in exchange for them letting go of US citizenship but these deals won't be publicly disclosed). And things of those nature. Stock prices not that accurate on this but production output and those fabs being contracted like they are and nothing changing would show how useful or useless these actions are.
 
We will see. Indicators would be output from those fabs, Chinese electronics exports, other announcements/actions from either side (I assume Chinese government would offer certain American Chinese engineers some deals basically in exchange for them letting go of US citizenship but these deals won't be publicly disclosed). And things of those nature. Stock prices not that accurate on this but production output and those fabs being contracted like they are and nothing changing would show how useful or useless these actions are.
Here is the harsh truth...

Once customers know those Chinese-American engineers stop working, the customers will downgrade any product from Chinese fabs to 'Engineering' status, meaning none will go to the consumers. All products from those fabs will be assumed as if they came from a new fab or a new producer, which mean it maybe up to another two yrs before those all Chinese fabs will make any money. ISO may go as far as decert those Chinese fabs.
 
Here is the harsh truth...

Once customers know those Chinese-American engineers stop working, the customers will downgrade any product from Chinese fabs to 'Engineering' status, meaning none will go to the consumers. All products from those fabs will be assumed as if they came from a new fab or a new producer, which mean it maybe up to another two yrs before those all Chinese fabs will make any money. ISO may go as far as decert those Chinese fabs.
none will go to the consumers

I am no expert on the subject, but I am not aware of any well-known chips that are fabbed in China. Most chips I know are fabbed in U.S., EU, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan. Intel owns some fabs in Israel. I know many vendors package their dies in China, but these are not Fabs, right?
 
Knowledge cant be hidden..we know this for last 300 years..

As long as china invest enough and let talent come from rest of the world it will grow..

Problem is china isnt a friendly country for talent to come in ..and we dont know how much R&D is being put in
 
They sell to the government, military companies and some state-owned enterprises.

In the market, it has problems with the software ecosystem :

The ecosystem is not developed -> cannot attract customers -> cannot sell products -> no profit -> cannot develop the ecosystem.
No.

Supported software​

Operating systems​

The Loongson processors are mainly designed around using the Linux operating system. Any operating system supporting the MIPS architecture should theoretically work. Windows CE was ported to a Loongson-based system with minimal effort. In 2010, Lemote ported an Android distribution to the Loongson platform.

Loongson machines are used in the package-building and CI infrastructure of Debian and Golang, respectively. This is partially because of Loongson's status as the only vendor producing application-grade MIPS CPUs for retail.

As of February 2022, there are 3 Chinese Linux distributions that support LoongArch: these are Kylin, Loongnix and Unity Operating System. There are efforts to build LoongArch support into community versions of Linux.

Compiler support​

The GNU Compiler Collection (GCC) is the main compiler for software development on the Loongson platform.

Before 2021 LLVM support was still inadequate due to missing workarounds for Loongson's CPU errata on MIPS.From February 2022 LoongArch support was added to LLVM 15.0.

ICT also ported Open64 to the Loongson II platform.

Problem is china isnt a friendly country for talent to come in .
Actually, China can do very well if talent stays home. Sometimes, it appears as though the best Chinese talent is outside China.
 
Here is the harsh truth...

Once customers know those Chinese-American engineers stop working, the customers will downgrade any product from Chinese fabs to 'Engineering' status, meaning none will go to the consumers. All products from those fabs will be assumed as if they came from a new fab or a new producer, which mean it maybe up to another two yrs before those all Chinese fabs will make any money. ISO may go as far as decert those Chinese fabs.
The harsh truth is that the Chinese market consumes 70% of the chips, and China has the ability to manufacture most of the chips.

Without the Chinese market, I don't know whether American chip companies can survive and develop.

But I know that Chinese chip companies will welcome a period of great development.
 
The harsh truth is that the Chinese market consumes 70% of the chips, and China has the ability to manufacture most of the chips.

Without the Chinese market, I don't know whether American chip companies can survive and develop.

But I know that Chinese chip companies will welcome a period of great development.
I think the details are interesting. Most of the 70% of chips are used by Chinese board makers. What may happen is, the dies (blank silicon chips) will be directed to non-China assembly & test facilities in Malaysia, etc., (Intel has a big presence in Penang). It will be assembled and tested and go to China for board making. Then the products will go out as usual. The net result is a detour in the assembly & test process. more bottlenecks, more delays and some price increase. But no lasting damage.
 
none will go to the consumers

I am no expert on the subject, but I am not aware of any well-known chips that are fabbed in China. Most chips I know are fabbed in U.S., EU, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan. Intel owns some fabs in Israel. I know many vendors package their dies in China, but these are not Fabs, right?
That is fine. Nothing wrong with ignorance. Each of us is ignorant about many things. The issue is whether we admit it or not. The important thing for you to know about the PDF Chinese is that they are openly contemptuous of knowledge and experience. They genuinely believe they do not need to know/experience to blab about anything.

Anyway...I am currently in the semicon manufacturing industry, specifically at the Probe step of the entire process.


The probe step, or Probe Functional/Parametric Dept, is where the semicon wafer is actually tested for their functionality, whether it is DRAM, NOR, NAND, SRAM, and many other designs. My job is in process engineering, meaning I make sure the wafer move out of the fab and into the customer's hands with no issues. I make sure Production move the product efficiently, the Functional/Parametric engineers codes works, and the final disposition of each wafer is correct. In other words, I have to know a little bit of everyone else's jobs.

Intel, Samsung, Hynix, Micron, just a few large names, have fabs in mainland China, as well as outside of China. Every step from wafer start to die extraction. Some fabs maybe too small to have the complete process flow, and usually extraction, or Back End (BE), is offloaded to another facility. There are Chinese fabs that are contract fabs or foundries. They usually work from someone else's designs, such as Apple who design the chip but do not have the mass volume capability, so Apple contract that volume production out.

In reference to my post 24...

Each fab is treated uniquely by all customers, meaning that just because SMIC Fab 1 make the standard 64gb NAND wafers, that does not mean Fab 2 can produce the same without passing engineering qualifications tests by the customers. A new fab is treated with the same suspicion and it is industry practice. Depending on the product, a wafer can take up to four months to make it to Probe. Then the customer will do their own testing on the dies they extracted. Then they will literally scrap all those wafers/dies and wait for the next engineering batch. They will do that until a batch of wafers passed their tests. Then once the customer approved, the process is locked down, and wafers from this approved process can be made into consumer level products, whether it is an SD card or memory module for a smart refrigerator or fuel controller for the car, whatever it is. If the process is changed, such as a new wafer processing hardware, the customers must be notified, and the entire aforementioned qualification process starts anew. Depending on the product, the qualification process can take up to two yrs.

As a side note, for several yrs I pointed that out and not one of the PDF Chinese have dared to challenge what I said because they know that I am the real deal and they are frauds. I have debunked many of their claims about the semicon industry.

As far as these latest moves by the US, the resignations of so many engineers WILL worry customers. The resignations are the equivalent of a major process change, and if a fab have enough engineers who quit, the entire fab will be downgraded to 'engineering qualification' status. No customer will take a chance. It does not matter if the final product is a smart refrigerator. If a flawed die from an unqualified fab made it into that smart refrigerator, or more serious like an automated pump in an oil pipeline, the failure could be catastrophic costing the customer money or even lives. ISO and customers routinely audit fabs and they do it independently of each other. If Panasonic find unacceptable particle count in an deposition chamber, Panasonic can decert the entire fab. Other customers can still buy and use products from that fab, but usually, if one major customer decert a fab, others will follow.

So do not trust what the PDF Chinese say about China's semicon industry. They are not here to educate and inform, but to outright lie and mislead.
 
That is fine. Nothing wrong with ignorance. Each of us is ignorant about many things. The issue is whether we admit it or not. The important thing for you to know about the PDF Chinese is that they are openly contemptuous of knowledge and experience. They genuinely believe they do not need to know/experience to blab about anything.

Anyway...I am currently in the semicon manufacturing industry, specifically at the Probe step of the entire process.


The probe step, or Probe Functional/Parametric Dept, is where the semicon wafer is actually tested for their functionality, whether it is DRAM, NOR, NAND, SRAM, and many other designs. My job is in process engineering, meaning I make sure the wafer move out of the fab and into the customer's hands with no issues. I make sure Production move the product efficiently, the Functional/Parametric engineers codes works, and the final disposition of each wafer is correct. In other words, I have to know a little bit of everyone else's jobs.

Intel, Samsung, Hynix, Micron, just a few large names, have fabs in mainland China, as well as outside of China. Every step from wafer start to die extraction. Some fabs maybe too small to have the complete process flow, and usually extraction, or Back End (BE), is offloaded to another facility. There are Chinese fabs that are contract fabs or foundries. They usually work from someone else's designs, such as Apple who design the chip but do not have the mass volume capability, so Apple contract that volume production out.

In reference to my post 24...

Each fab is treated uniquely by all customers, meaning that just because SMIC Fab 1 make the standard 64gb NAND wafers, that does not mean Fab 2 can produce the same without passing engineering qualifications tests by the customers. A new fab is treated with the same suspicion and it is industry practice. Depending on the product, a wafer can take up to four months to make it to Probe. Then the customer will do their own testing on the dies they extracted. Then they will literally scrap all those wafers/dies and wait for the next engineering batch. They will do that until a batch of wafers passed their tests. Then once the customer approved, the process is locked down, and wafers from this approved process can be made into consumer level products, whether it is an SD card or memory module for a smart refrigerator or fuel controller for the car, whatever it is. If the process is changed, such as a new wafer processing hardware, the customers must be notified, and the entire aforementioned qualification process starts anew. Depending on the product, the qualification process can take up to two yrs.

As a side note, for several yrs I pointed that out and not one of the PDF Chinese have dared to challenge what I said because they know that I am the real deal and they are frauds. I have debunked many of their claims about the semicon industry.

As far as these latest moves by the US, the resignations of so many engineers WILL worry customers. The resignations are the equivalent of a major process change, and if a fab have enough engineers who quit, the entire fab will be downgraded to 'engineering qualification' status. No customer will take a chance. It does not matter if the final product is a smart refrigerator. If a flawed die from an unqualified fab made it into that smart refrigerator, or more serious like an automated pump in an oil pipeline, the failure could be catastrophic costing the customer money or even lives. ISO and customers routinely audit fabs and they do it independently of each other. If Panasonic find unacceptable particle count in an deposition chamber, Panasonic can decert the entire fab. Other customers can still buy and use products from that fab, but usually, if one major customer decert a fab, others will follow.

So do not trust what the PDF Chinese say about China's semicon industry. They are not here to educate and inform, but to outright lie and mislead.
Thank you for the detailed information. I was unaware that the Big Guys do wafer starts in China based fabs. If they fab from wafer to die, most definitely the process will be impacted with loss of process knowhow, especially in the advanced nodes finer than 130 nm.
 

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