New Delhi completes encirclement of Pakistan

[kidwaibhai]

the cheapest route for afghan products is still through pakistan. if you havnt seen the news even with this new road afghans are still clamoring for a expansion of APTA to karachi it will become more cheap as gwader comes online. i think we are making much to much of a highway. and lets not forget what happens to roads in the south they are all eventually full of pot holes from IED. i thing we need not be afraid of a single highway its not that hard to ruin a road so lets all just calm down take a cold shower and stop having wet dreams of pakistani encirclement.
as far as the indians go they are slowly being encircled by the chinese and i would suggest they pay more attention to that because that is in the short term not like the situation in afghanistan which if it happens will be in the long term and that is a big (if)

 

[maqsad]

Pakistan is being trapped ; its better we start threating people like Indian 4'2 n Israel no need to nuclear attack Iran will scarifice our life for our Muslims brothers and showed them that they were wrong !

Sir, I did not quite understand what you just wrot.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Trade under the Afghan Transit Trade agreement surged this year:

Afghan transit trade soars to Rs25.7 billion​

By Parvaiz Ishfaq Rana
Thursday, 22 Jan, 2009 | 02:26 PM PST |


KARACHI: Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) has recorded 71.45 per cent growth at Rs25.763 billion during first six months (July-Dec) of the current fiscal year over the corresponding period last year when it stood at Rs15.026 billion.

According to official figures, there had been an increase of Rs10.737 billion in imports of goods through ATT during this period. Much of the growth was noted in items which have little or no demand in the Afghan market, prompting concerns of smuggling.

Import of machinery and electronic items registered the highest growth of up to 192.31 per cent at Rs4.027 billion against Rs1.377 billion over last year.

An underdeveloped and war-torn country having no demand for modern electronic gadgets, there is a sustained growth in import of such goods. Similarly, Afghanistan having no basic infrastructure facilities and road networks could not import machinery where industry is almost non-existence.

As far as import of electronic items is concerned refrigerators, air-conditioners, vacuum cleaners, TV sets, DVD players etc are being largely imported and one cannot understand who their customers are in a country, which has no electricity.

Similarly, there is a tremendous growth of 39.99 per cent in import of iron and steel and other metals under ATT at Rs746.56 million from Rs533.28 million recorded in the same period last year.

Import of fabrics under ATT also increased by 28.90 per cent at Rs5.143 billion during July-Dec period as against Rs3.990 billion recorded in the same period last fiscal. Such a large quantity of fabrics imports under ATT is not justified because Afghan culture is still far away from modern exposure and has no such market demand.

Foodstuff imports under ATT increased by 32.31 per cent during first six months of current fiscal at Rs6.227 billion compared to Rs4.706 billion last year.

During July-Dec period vehicles worth Rs933.70 million were imported compared to Rs433.12 million earlier registering a growth of 78.37 per cent.

Other items, including household goods, tiles, paper, chemicals, plastic etc worth Rs9.684 billion were imported during period under review as against Rs3.985 billion during last fiscal.

Official sources disclosed that a new agreement on ATT is going to be negotiated next month. The present agreement only allows up to 10 per cent of ATT cargo examination but it is being suggested that the same should be increased to 50 per cent to discourage smuggling under its cover.

Secondly, it is also being recommended by trade and industry that the ATT should be put up before the National Assembly prior to its approval, because the last ATT agreement was signed under pressure and it created lot of problems for the domestic industry.

The customs intelligence wing, which was made ineffective by the Shaukat Aziz government should be reactivated to curtail rampant smuggling under the ATT cover. Inside sources disclosed that presently the Appraisement Intelligence Branch is poorly equipped and the government should pump in some funds to improve their working by giving them proper equipments.

The reward system to customs officials on tracing out mis-declaration or under-invoicing was also done away by the previous government. This used to be a boon for honest officers, who avoided illegal gratifications.

Even today a large number of ATT consignments in containers do not leave city jurisdiction, customs sources told Dawn. They further said there were yards where such containers are taken and after removing goods are held back for a week to show that a box has traveled up to Pak-Afghan border.

But some smart players, who do not want tamper with the seals of containers, only remove nuts and bolts of its doors and after removing goods fix them back and allow it to be taken (empty) up to Pak-Afghan border.

Customs sources requesting anonymity disclosed that it is an open secret that ATT official seals are prepared in a narrow lane opposite Customs House and are also being openly used by unscrupulous people involved in such illegal trade or smuggling.

To prevent such cases it is being suggested that the examination of ATT goods should be done at Karachi and not at Pak-Afghan border.
DAWN.COM | Business | Afghan transit trade soars to Rs25-7 billion

Hmmm. with all this smuggling going on, perhaps its for the better that Afghan trade shifts to a route through Iran. One of th emajor reasons behind the wheat shortage was the smuggling into Afghanistan. Its not likely that a significant amount of trade will shift to Iran though, at least for the Pashtun regions, who will likely continue to have strong business ties with Pakistan due to the fact that they have strong cultural, ethnic and Tribal links with the Pakistani Pashtun.

The other argument raised by someone was about the Chabahar port and Indian ability to transport LNG and bypass Pakistan. That has nothing to do with the road, and has always been an option for India, so nothing new there.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

It's quite interesting that nobody in the pakistani media talks about this dangerous development. All these so called journalists and defence analysts never seem to portray Iran in a negative light--it's always "the brother muslims country Iran" and blah blah blah. It makes me suspect that the Pakistani media is decieving the public in yet another way.

There is nothing to 'deceive' the public about here. You are creating a controversy where none exists, and with absolutely no reasoning. Iran has not threatened Pakistan in anyway, she has not claimed Pakistani territory in any way, nor has she so far allowed any Indian pro-insurgency operations in Baluchistan from her territory (given that she has her own Sistan problem).

Economically, we have no major trade with any of the countries reportedly being 'accessed' by this road or railroads, so India getting access to them does not impact us. If gas pipelines are built across Afghanistan to Chabahar, then they will easily be extended or branched off to supply Pakistan, since these countries will want to sell as much gas to as many buyers as possible.

The main reason for a lack of pipelines so far has been the Afghan instability, so if that issue is overcome, it helps out Pakistan at the same time.

Sorry, but at this point there is very little of this ridiculous 'dooms day scenario' for Pakistan that you are making it out to be.

So what should the media be warning us about?

 

[maqsad]

Trade under the Afghan Transit Trade agreement surged this year:

Hmmm. with all this smuggling going on, perhaps its for the better that Afghan trade shifts to a route through Iran. One of th emajor reasons behind the wheat shortage was the smuggling into Afghanistan.

If even up to half the legitimate trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan shifts to Iran then it won't have much effect on reducing smuggling from Pakistan. Why should it? Would a wheat smuggler in Peshawar be any less inclined to smuggle wheat for profit into Jalalabad or Kabul? There is no silver lining on this dark cloud.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

If even up to half the legitimate trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan shifts to Iran then it won't have much effect on reducing smuggling from Pakistan. Why should it? Would a wheat smuggler in Peshawar be any less inclined to smuggle wheat for profit into Jalalabad or Kabul? There is no silver lining on this dark cloud.

Valid point that smuggling may not see a significant drop, but since we do not collect tax revenues under the ATT anyway, why should it be an issue if half of it moves to Iran? Reduces the load on our infrastructure.

 

[maqsad]

Valid point that smuggling may not see a significant drop, but since we do not collect tax revenues under the ATT anyway, why should it be an issue if half of it moves to Iran? Reduces the load on our infrastructure.

Not that I condone smuggling or tax evasion but when pakistani pathans(presumably) devote their time to smuggling stuff through pakistan they make money at it, lots of money. That money is spent and invested in the Pakistani economy(versus the Irani economy) and the trickle down effect benefits Pakistan. It's like dubai for example. We all know that nobody pays income tax in Dubai and there is no corporate tax either of any significant degree. If 2 million people suddenly left the UAE and shifted their business somewhere else then the drop in tax revenue would be nonexistent but the ripple effect from that huge mass of economic activity being ripped away from Dubai would be bad for the Dubai economy.

The same principle would apply to the Pakistani economy, current "business" would suffer in volume as well as profitability and ultimately that is bad for Pakistan while Iran benefits. The article hints towards that when it says the pakistani monopoly would be broken.

 

[maqsad]

There is nothing to 'deceive' the public about here. You are creating a controversy where none exists, and with absolutely no reasoning. Iran has not threatened Pakistan in anyway, she has not claimed Pakistani territory in any way, nor has she so far allowed any Indian pro-insurgency operations in Baluchistan from her territory (given that she has her own Sistan problem).

I was simply pointing out that neither Iran nor India have Pakistan's interests at heart. Proof of that is when Iran and India signed an agreement allowing India to use Irani territory to attack Pakistan in case an Indo-pak war broke out. I consider that a threat, so does Janes. Yet when I express my opinion here I am attacked as an "arab lover".

Economically, we have no major trade with any of the countries reportedly being 'accessed' by this road or railroads, so India getting access to them does not impact us.

Pakistan has a lot of trade with Afghanistan so it does impact the pakistani economy. But besides that there is also the future, if Pakistan grabs LESS of the trade into central asia and Iran grabs more then that's a win for Iran and a loss for Pakistan.

Sorry, but at this point there is very little of this ridiculous 'dooms day scenario' for Pakistan that you are making it out to be.

So what should the media be warning us about?

The media should not be censoring news that portrays Iran in a negative and sinister light if the news pertains to pakistans security and prosperity. If Iran is working against Pakistan and wants to break up and weaken Pakistan then that news should not be censored or sidelined.


We see a lot of screaming about America "the great satan" conspiring to break up pakistan, blackmail pakistan etc etc and to a certain extent that can of course be true but the point is that people and the media are allowed to criticize America but when it comes time to raise eyebrows at Iran's sinister ambitions then....woa! Its taboo!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Not that I condone smuggling or tax evasion but when pakistani pathans(presumably) devote their time to smuggling stuff through pakistan they make money at it, lots of money. That money is spent and invested in the Pakistani economy(versus the Irani economy) and the trickle down effect benefits Pakistan. It's like dubai for example. We all know that nobody pays income tax in Dubai and there is no corporate tax either of any significant degree. If 2 million people suddenly left the UAE and shifted their business somewhere else then the drop in tax revenue would be nonexistent but the ripple effect from that huge mass of economic activity being ripped away from Dubai would be bad for the Dubai economy.

The same principle would apply to the Pakistani economy, current "business" would suffer in volume as well as profitability and ultimately that is bad for Pakistan while Iran benefits. The article hints towards that when it says the pakistani monopoly would be broken.

And as you said, the Pathan on both sides are into it for making money. Pakistan still provides the shortest route to Afghanistan, especially to the Pashtun regions, and the entities involved in these businesses and 'rackets' are comfortable with the culture they know and have worked with for centuries. These people are not going to be shifting their business to Iran (a longer route) just because India built a road.

I think there might be the possibility thought for additional business for them through Iran with India.

 

[Contrarian]

Pakistan is still the shortest route and the cheapest route, but now its not the only route for countries that dont border Afghanistan to trade with Afghanistan.

Secondly, as of now, Pakistan allows Afghan goods to come to India via Pakistan but doesnt allow Indian goods to goto Afghanistan, thus it makes Indian exports to Afghanistan ridiculously expensive. With this route in place, the cost of goods currently being exported to Afhganistan, not just from India but from almost every country barring Pakistan would come down to a great extent.

Secondly, access to Afghanistan for India and other countries increases correspondingly.

It does reduce Pakistan's importance and ability to blackmail others in the region or restrict Indian access to Afghanistan. It also free's up India to be able to conduct more and more business with CAR's(without being held to ransom by Pakistan) and most importantly countries like Tajikistan.

Before this, it was an expensive and a long and arduous route, not its that much cheaper and shorter. They also plan to build a rail connection from Chabahar to Afghanistan and then on to other CAR's.

EDIT: It provides Afghnistan with a port connection, currently the only port connection it had was in Pakistan. Thus Pakistan was vital for Afghanistan's trade.

 

[Awaaz]

Listen guys lately people have started to have doubts in them selves, let india build roads and infrastructure in Afghanistan.
EDITED - OFFENSIVE

Pakistan just needs to help stabilize Afghanistan and help get a government in that is allied with Pakistan in short and long term.

As far as india is concerned lets give it taste of its own medicine, lets help train and finance people in india who seek independence. Lets arm those in assam and other states to rise against the unholy cow india and break it up in to bits.


Lets develop good lasting relationship with Bangladesh and surround india, position our nuke missiles in Bangladesh and see what india can do.