Neutral unified Korean Penisular acceptable

[below_freezing]

and when the wall collapses on taiwan, we'll be sure to toast with a bottle of Maotai.

 

[gambit]

and when the wall collapses on taiwan, we'll be sure to toast with a bottle of Maotai.

No such. It will be the Taiwanese who opt for unification with mainland China. China cannot bet on the possibility of a repeat of the Obama Administration. Either take Taiwan by force now, which I doubt China can do without serious or even crippling injuries, or wait until the Taiwanese are ready to acquiesce. North Korea, on the other hand, is a political liability and an economic millstone around China's neck. China will lose NKR before gaining Taiwan...

 

[CardSharp]

And China did as well...

But you are correct...For now this will pass over. What is under everyone's awareness is the truth that there will be a continual erosion of ties between China and NKR. The divorce is de facto if not de jure. You will experience the same surprise as I did when the Berlin Wall felled when NKR collapse with the same ignominy. On the other hand, I will toast the SKReans with a bottle of soju.

I still think you are over-reading the wikilead cable. Take the US approach to this crisis for instance. The US state department had knowledge of this cable, and if they put any weight into it, I think they would have likely called outright for China to sever ties and openly support a Seoul unification.

The fact that China didn't deem it important enough to follow the leak with a official position and the fact that the US didn't push harder or raise the possibility of a Seoul unification officially, likely means this is unsubstantiated hearsay from passed on by the South Koreans to strength their hand and push the US into applying more pressure to NK.

 

[CardSharp]

No such. It will be the Taiwanese who opt for unification with mainland China. China cannot bet on the possibility of a repeat of the Obama Administration. Either take Taiwan by force now, which I doubt China can do without serious or even crippling injuries, or wait until the Taiwanese are ready to acquiesce. North Korea, on the other hand, is a political liability and an economic millstone around China's neck. China will lose NKR before gaining Taiwan...

I don't think anyone wants to see a fratricide over the Taiwan issue. The CCP I think finally has the right formula for unification, instead of the sabre (or dearmed missile) rattling of the 90's, they are learning to use the carrot as the primary inducement to bringing the two sides closer.

 

[gambit]

I still think you are over-reading the wikilead cable.

Not at all. If anything, I may be overly cautious.

Take the US approach to this crisis for instance. The US state department had knowledge of this cable, and if they put any weight into it, I think they would have likely called outright for China to sever ties and openly support a Seoul unification.

And how do you know we do not. The goal for US all along have been as peaceful as possible the erasure of North Korea from the political map and under Seoul's administration. Same for East Germany and look what happened. Those calls need not be public or even spoken in private.

 

[gambit]

I don't think anyone wants to see a fratricide over the Taiwan issue. The CCP I think finally has the right formula for unification, instead of the sabre (or dearmed missile) rattling of the 90's, they are learning to use the carrot as the primary inducement to bringing the two sides closer.

And I will respect the Taiwanese's decision and wish them luck when that time come.

 

[CardSharp]

Not at all. If anything, I may be overly cautious.


And how do you know we do not. The goal for US all along have been as peaceful as possible the erasure of North Korea from the political map and under Seoul's administration. Same for East Germany and look what happened. Those calls need not be public or even spoken in private.

I am just stating facts here. Neither the Chinese or American government have followed up the cable leak with a official announcement.

I'm afraid there is not going to be an easy fix on the peninsular. The Kims are slowly learning that it can extort without much consequence by exploiting China's fears of a failed state and or US troops on its border, and SK's fear of obliterating a world class economy (especially when Hyundai is amidst a major international push against Toyota for market share in higher value vehicles)

 

[CardSharp]

And I will respect the Taiwanese's decision and wish them luck when that time come.

Really life would't be all that different for them when the time comes. China has offered them terms even better than those HK got. They are allowed to keep their armed forces, they are allowed to maintain foreign relations with other countries, and of course they are allowed to keep their form of government with no statute of limitation (HK has only a 50 year promise of central government non-interference)

 

[below_freezing]

which makes me wonder how the propaganda on the island is done given both carrot and stick, our government should take some tips. i can't imagine rational, people, seeing the huge rewards for reunification and the harsh consequences for separation, will still lean towards separation. the dialogue is permanently poisoned in favor of independence ever since 1992, look how Ma is avoiding the issue of reunification. there is likely a white hand behind the curtains.

 

[ThatDamnGood]

which makes me wonder how the propaganda on the island is done given both carrot and stick, our government should take some tips.

Follow Russia Today lead.

 

[ThatDamnGood]

And your source for this is? Link please?

For the Zhongguo command, dun have it on file. Someone had a link in this forum or another.
For Russia, investigate their normal battle order for their annual Pacific wargame with the enhanced battle order for this year which was shortly after Cheonan.

 

[gpit]

I just read an article.

After the Inchon landing, Chinese told US via India that if only S. Koreans passed 38 parallel, we didn’t care, but not Americans. (BTW, it was the foolishness of the old Kim who did not listen to Chinese warning of the potential landing spots (Inchon was one) that finished his lifetime endeavor.)

Truman and McArthur had a meeting. They concluded that the likelihood for Chinese troops to enter Korea was extremely slim. If they ever came, the number might only be in tens of thousands or even thousands. Moreover, McArthur expected “home by Christmas” -- now a big joke.

Is history to repeat itself? I.e. potentially let SK to have NK but not Americans?

 

[CardSharp]

I just read an article.

After the Inchon landing, Chinese told US via India that if only S. Koreans passed 38 parallel, we didn’t care, but not Americans. (BTW, it was the foolishness of the old Kim who did not listen to Chinese warning of the potential landing spots (Inchon was one) that finished his lifetime endeavor.)

Truman and McArthur had a meeting. They concluded that the likelihood for Chinese troops to enter Korea was extremely slim. If they ever came, the number might only be in tens of thousands or even thousands. Moreover, McArthur expected “home by Christmas” -- now a big joke.

Is history to repeat itself? I.e. potentially let SK to have NK but not Americans?

Quite the opposite. China warned the Americans and the UN not to cross the 38th parallel.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Really life would't be all that different for them when the time comes. China has offered them terms even better than those HK got. They are allowed to keep their armed forces, they are allowed to maintain foreign relations with other countries, and of course they are allowed to keep their form of government with no statute of limitation (HK has only a 50 year promise of central government non-interference)

That's right.

Life hasn't changed at all in HK since the handover, in fact I would say it has gotten better.

And Taiwan is being offered an even better deal than we were.

 

[applesauce]

Quite the opposite. China warned the Americans and the UN not to cross the 38th parallel.

right but the americans didnt believe that and even if china crossed they believe it would still have been easily manageable