Nawaz Sharif vs Aitezaz Ahsan for NA-55 ?

[Interceptor]

That is the approach or the spin many analysts are giving to the stand off and I feel that PPP wil have to win this seat to gain a moral high ground if not anything, even though I am pro PML(N) Nawazz's return to parliament may make President Zardari flitch and that can cause a lot of damage.

The PPP have nothing to lose since they are a coalition Gov.Nawaz has walked away from being part coalition Gov, for him to make such a boast, he needs numbers which doesn't have it would comical for him to run around the country asking the opposition parties to support him for making a new Gov. Though I do welcome him to come into the Parliamentary forum, the man has a lot of ambitions lets hear him out.

 

[SSGPA1]

Sheikh Rasheed lost on NA 55 because of the Lal Masjid issue otherwise he was fairly popular. He has already challenged NS which means that he is already discounting people like Aitezaz Ahsan and IK.

Lets say all 4 of these guys vie for NA 55, here is what I think will happen:

1. Aitezaz Ahasan: He will decline party ticket as he is on good terms with NS and he can't win against NS. His supporters would either go with IK or NS.

2. Sheikh Rasheed: He will get more votes than last time but will loose to NS. However, if he is able to negotiate support from PPPP and establishment then he may be able to beat NS. If this is a strategy adopted by PPPP and SR then get ready for some very damaging news (CORRUPTION OR PERSONAL) surfacing about NS.

3. Nawaz Sharif: He can EASILY be a winner on his own but he will still need US support otherwise all alliances and reasons will be formed to beat this man. If NS looses then result will be a very very hard sell for the govt. and they would need to come up with some serious post election planning.

4. Imran Khan: Kuj Sheher De Log Vee Zalim Sunn Kuj Sanu Maran Da Shauq Vee C

IK didn't capitalized on the appointment of CJP (I agree in principal) ... he is seen as pro-Taliban now which will not win him votes in current situation ... However, he can play a vital role in NS' loss in NA-55.

People who will vote for AA, NS and IK belong to the same vote bank. This means that votes will be divided in three different directions whereas, SR voters will not see any division.

Other factors: JI will also play a role along with the performance of SS' provincial govt and Hanif Abbasi's performance will also play a major riole.

Hanif Abbasi is the lota whop moved from JI to PML-N and defeated SR in one of the two seats. If Abbasi's performance is lousy then that will also play as an issue against NS.

 

[batmannow]

2. Sheikh Rasheed: He will get more votes than last time but will loose to NS. However, if he is able to negotiate support from PPPP and establishment then he may be able to beat NS. If this is a strategy adopted by PPPP and SR then get ready for some very damaging news (CORRUPTION OR PERSONAL) surfacing about NS.

well, very close shot SSGPA1, dear sir!
i guss, it will be going in that direction , but you didnt mention or forcast the role of "CHOTEY MIAN SHARIF"(shabaz)!
very good, thinking by the way!


3. Nawaz Sharif: He can EASILY be a winner on his own but he will still need US support otherwise all alliances and reasons will be formed to beat this man. If NS looses then result will be a very very hard sell for the govt. and they would need to come up with some serious post election planning.


this is most likly , if USA thought he can do the job, & if not its simple & clear to NAWAZ?

 

[Bane Blade]

When are we having elections for the constituency? just asking so that I can follow the build up.

 

[SSGPA1]

Friday, May 29, 2009
By Mumtaz Alvi

ISLAMABAD: The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on Thursday announced to hold bye-election in NA-55 (Rawalpindi-VI) on July 04, with no political stakeholder has yet decided about the name of possible candidates.
The National Assembly’s key seat of Rawalpindi fell vacant in the wake of resignation of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) legislator Haji Pervaiz Khan after an examination controversy surfaced a few weeks back.

Political experts said that apparently the PPP was in no mood to field a candidate again and is expected to support the PML-N contestant. Whosoever PML-N’s candidate is named could face a potential challenge from Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI)’s likely candidate Ejaz Khan Jazi. According to the schedule, candidates will file their nomination papers from June 03 to June 06 at the office of deputy election commissioner. The scrutiny of papers will be made by the returning officer from June 08-09.

Na-55 election on 4 july > Insaf Forum > Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

 

[Bane Blade]

Oh wonderfull but if PPP is withdrawing a candidate it won't make the competition as much fun as it may have initially been.

 

[SSGPA1]

If PPPP withdraws its candidate ion favour of NS then it is actually going to favor SR because people will see PPPP and NS hand in hand.

On the other hand, if NS refuses to accept PPPP support then PPPP will come out in open in supporting SR.

Both conditions benefit SR.

Any news on lota Hanif Abbasi? How is his popularity?

 

[SSGPA1]

The National Assembly’s key seat of Rawalpindi fell vacant in the wake of resignation of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) legislator Haji Pervaiz Khan after an examination controversy surfaced a few weeks back.

Clever move by NS, he got a seat vacant around the time frame of his clearence by SCP.

Does anyone know about Haji Pervaiz Khan's loyalty after this decission?

I am sure he was also elected on bradari vote and Lal Masjid issue.

 

[Bane Blade]

I hope that it does because it is always sonderfull when democracy is in action when leaders are turnign to their voters pleaing to them it is just the beauty of democracy.

 

[zubair723]

Well forget about all this. Look forward to the early POLLs coming in less then 1 year

 

[SSGPA1]

Well forget about all this. Look forward to the early POLLs coming in less then 1 year

I have heard rumours that Zaradri is out after June budget.

We don't need polls as we need leadership.

 

[Rafael]

Guys, I think your are mistaken.

N.S is the Most popular leader in the country, How can he loose to SR? I am sure even If all other political parties join hands against N.S, He still will win the election hands down. We have seen his support in the long march and since then he has played his cards even better.. His support can only increase at this point of time.

 

[batmannow]

Guys, I think your are mistaken.

N.S is the Most popular leader in the country, How can he loose to SR? I am sure even If all other political parties join hands against N.S, He still will win the election hands down. We have seen his support in the long march and since then he has played his cards even better.. His support can only increase at this point of time.

sory , dear raheel.
but its pakistani , politics "ANY THING CAN HAPPEN HERE" plz remmember that! always?

 

[SSGPA1]

Guys, I think your are mistaken.

N.S is the Most popular leader in the country, How can he loose to SR? I am sure even If all other political parties join hands against N.S, He still will win the election hands down. We have seen his support in the long march and since then he has played his cards even better.. His support can only increase at this point of time.

NS is definetly the most popular but not all over Pakistan ... NS will not win in Karachi, Haiderabad, Gawader, Larkana etc.

Very good chance of NS winning the elction but we need to look at all perspectives.

 

[Bane Blade]

NS is definetly the most popular but not all over Pakistan ... NS will not win in Karachi, Haiderabad, Gawader, Larkana etc.

Very good chance of NS winning the elction but we need to look at all perspectives.

I don't think that NS would ever stand from a constituency that he won't be sure to win from so I don't think if he has an ounce of a chance to lose that he will stand in the elections.