Elaborate further please.
A quick post/summary to illustrate my point:
As per the SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) from FY99 to FY14 respectively we had budget deficits as a % of our total GDP of 6.1 (FY99), 6.6 (FY00), 5.2 (FY01), 5.2 (FY02), 4.4 (FY03), 2.3 (FY04), 3.3 (FY05), 4.3 (FY06), 4.3 (FY07), 7.6 (FY08 and this is when the PPP took over), 5.3 (FY09), 6.3 (FY10), 6.6 (FY11), 8.5 (FY12), 8.2 (FY13) and 5.5 (FY14) which happens to be the latest figure out.
Note how absolute shit the PPP government was. Their whole development model was based on accruing more and more debt while collecting no tax revenue to support their spending spree and investing in god knows what because it certainly wasn't industry. Though I disagree with Musharraf's development model at least he didn't try to spend what the government didn't have and you saw incremental decreases in the budget deficit almost year on year for his entire term.
Now let's assume from FY99 to FY14 successive governments kept the tax to GDP ratio at a constant 18%
If that was the case we would have seen revised deficits of
1.4 (FY99),
1.1 (FY00), a surplus of
0.3 (FY01), then deficits of
0.8 (FY02),
0.1 (FY03), then surpluses of
5.9 (FY04),
4.9 (FY05),
3.8 (FY06),
3.5 (FY07),
0.3 (FY08),
3.3 (FY09),
1.2 (FY10),
2 (FY11), then another deficit of
0.5 (FY12),
0 (technically a balanced budget in FY13) and finally another surplus of
2.4 (FY14)
**I colour coded them to just make it easier to understand. So the
reds are deficits and the
green's are surpluses assuming we had maintained a constant tax to GDP ratio of 18% with non-tax revenue collected those individual years remaining the same as what was actually collected.
Now if we borrowed the same amount we did those individual years and added in the surplus or subtracted the deficit we'd have had if the tax to GDP ratio remained a constant 18% from FY99 to FY14 we would have had the following as a % of our GDP to specifically invest in our industries:
FY99 = 4.7
FY00 = 5.5
FY01 = 5.5
FY02 = 4.4
FY03 = 4.3
FY04 = 8.2
FY05 = 8.2
FY06 = 8.1
FY07 = 7.8
FY08 = 7.9
FY09 = 8.6
FY10 = 7.5
FY11 = 8.6
FY12 = 8
FY13 = 8.2
FY14 = 7.9
Now as a monetary figure, if we go by WB figures for the size of Pakistan's economy,
overall that represents a total collective revenue of more than $170 billion USD (not adjusted for inflation and going by current exchange rates) that we could have invested directly into industry (more considering that those investments would produce goods for export or replacement of imports earning/saving us foreign exchange which can be reinvested into the domestic economy for increased profits).
Now obviously this is based on a best case scenario where investment into the FBR and border security (to prevent smuggling and enforcement of tax laws to ensure the payment of duties/tariffs of goods brought into the country) would yield immediate returns. We would have also have needed to ensure that the import barriers which appear to have been removed back in '99 were reinstated as this also resulted in an increased loss of revenue for the government. Instead the main focus should have been to allow only duty free imports of capital equipment and raw materials for our industries but increasingly invest where possible into import substitution.
There would never have been an energy crisis in fact we could very well be producing all the oil/gas we needed, we would have been mining and refining our own mineral deposits, we would have expanded domestic industries and had more than enough money to invest in domestic security, better funding of Madrassah's so they have the ability to provide their students with a more rounded education so their students can compete to be future leaders and industrial pioneers, etc...
This is why I've said that this tax issue is what's robbing Pakistan of its growth potential. Until it's resolved, which requires more funding for the FBR along with border/port authorities to prevent smuggling and compliance with the nations tax laws, nothing is going to change in fact based on news reports citing the FBR it seems as if the problem is actually getting worse.
A much longer post outlining explaining taxes and the current situation:
A government needs tax collection to pay for basic social services (ex. access to health care, access to education, etc...) and invest into industries (includes electricity generation).
There are
direct taxes (ex. personal income tax, property tax, corporate income tax, social security contributions, etc...) and
indirect taxes (ex. tariffs, duties, value added taxes, etc...). However, governments also generates revenue from other sources such as government owned industries/businesses, financial aid, etc...
A
tax to GDP ratio is a ratio of total tax revenue collected against a countries overall
GDP (Gross Domestic Product = total value of goods/services a country produces and though this isn't the best measure of growth and development it's the most commonly used and what most people are aware of so I'll use it).
In FY2013 (financial year 2013 which I believe begins in July '12 and ends June '13 in Pakistan) the SBP confirmed that the government collected approximately $29 Billion USD in revenue (of which $21.45 Billion was in the form of taxes) but the country spent $46.9 Billion USD with an overall budget deficit of 8% of GDP (size of the economy in FY13, as per the SBP, was about $219.3 billion USD in size as per current exchange rates so that's about accurate)
http://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual/arFY13/Overview.pdf
That means to cover the budget, so there would be no deficits, the countries tax to GDP ratio needed to have been about 18% of GDP (not about 10.1% as it stands now) with non-tax revenue covering the rest (if the government owned profitable businesses then it doesn't need to rely so much on income tax revenue). Otherwise the country is borrowing money (which needs to be repaid with interest and
if you look at previous budgets more than half of them go towards debt servicing), printing money (which results in inflation) or receiving “AID” from countries like the US who use this to force Pakistan into doing things it should not be doing (ex. 18th amendment, NRO, demanding we open our roads to India, etc...).
Now since I'm in Canada I'll use it as an example to compare to. Of all the sources of revenue the government here collects direct taxes generate more than 50% of total government revenue (personal income taxes alone make up almost half of total revenue collected):
Now when you look at Pakistan's budget for 2013-2014 which cites revisions to the 2012-2013 budget estimates you'll see that direct taxes represented only 20% of the governments source of revenue (which is way too small and, I'll have to confirm this, I'm pretty sure that a disproportionate amount comes from VAT's instead of income and corporate taxes).
http://finance.gov.pk/budget/abs_2013_14.pdf
So why is it that low?
Well according to Pakistan's own FBR (Federal Board of Revenue) about 800,000 income tax returns (out of a population of about 180 million) were filed by 16/12/2013 which represents less than 1% of Pakistan's total population and of those filing taxes it's apparent, based on other news reports regarding the countries own politicians, they're not specifying their true assets or income so either don't pay any taxes at all or pay far less than what they're supposed to. This is on top of rampant fraud being reported with regards to corporate income taxes and companies evading paying duties and tariffs (which includes foreign multinationals operating in Pakistan).
Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), Government of Pakistan
Pakistan politicians engulfed by tax evasion storm | World news | The Guardian
Pakistan Customs unearths tax evasion on edible oil imports - thenews.com.pk
In fact a recent article cited in The International News actually notes the FBR as stating that both the number of companies and even individuals filing their income tax returns in tax year 2014 actually dropped compared to the previous year so the problem is obviously getting worse.
Corporate income tax returns filing dropped by 47 percent - thenews.com.pk
What's great is that Pakistan has less income inequality than the US, China and India (demonstrated by our lower Gini coefficient). However, as of 2010 based on WB figures, the top 20% of the population held about 39.5% of the total share of income (in the US the top 20% held 46% of the total share of income and in China they held 47.1% of the total share of income).
If that remained true in tax year 2013 then at least 18 million people (36 million in top 20% and assume about 50% should be 18+), not about 800K, should have filed income tax returns and have been paying income taxes. Now you can't dump everything on the wealthier members of society and everyone else does have to contribute their share as well but it's obvious that the wealthiest in the country are simply shirking their responsibility and the government doesn't seem to care.
Income share held by highest 20% | Data | Table
I generally do not like when people try compare Pakistan to developed economies, since we're in a different stage of development then they are, but it's obvious that this is the result of complete negligence on the part of the government. If you look at Pakistan's budget for 2013 (which I posted earlier), to give one year as an example, they were only given a measly 2.743 billion Rs (about $26.7 million USD) which represented about 0.012% of the GDP (if I go by the figures published by the SBP or WB using current exchange rates). How is the FBR supposed to investigate decades of tax fraud, collect revenue, expand the tax net by registering more citizens, etc... when the government doesn't even afford them a budget to do it? Compare this to the US' IRS which got 0.067% of their GDP in 2013 (if I go by WB figures citing current exchange rates).
The PML-N government spent more on its useless Lahore metro projects then it did on the FBR (the same as the PPP which spent more money on its own useless development projects and theirs were probably even worse because the energy crisis began during their term and their budget deficits have, at least for now, been higher than the PML-N's). The $1.6 billion USD deal they signed with China would have given the FBR all the money it needed for Nawaz's first 5 year term and more which I believe would have drastically increased tax collection). To put the money into the metro project is completely inept considering I haven't even heard of a public transit system in the world that doesn't lose money and needs to be heavily subsidized with the exception of Hong Kong's (there are specific reasons for this) and possibly Japans.
$1.6bn Lahore metro train deal signed with China - Newspaper - DAWN.COM
How else can we classify this other than completely incompetent or very likely attributed to corruption? That is a poorly funded and toothless FBR can't go after the 70+% of politicians, including the Shariff and Bhutto families, who aren't paying their share of taxes)
If a country like Kyrgyzstan which is located regionally has a tax to GDP ratio of 24% (as per WB) with a lower per capita GDP it's obvious that Pakistan can as well.
The US itself is stupid because they've been decreasing their own IRS' budget for years now when they need tax revenue more than ever (it appears to have further decreased in 2014 to just $9 billion):
This is why the government doesn't have the money to invest in our own industries and you either find them selling national resources (ex. Reqo Diq) to foreign multinationals or being incapable of exploiting it themselves.
There's a lot more we can discuss on this issue highlighting some of the other developed economies (ex. South Korea) to demonstrate how protectionist policies and self investment is the key to Pakistan's success which is why I am not a fan of Musharraf's development model though it's obvious he was far better at managing the economy than either the PPP and PML-N's whose development schemes are completely wrong in historical context. However for now I'll end it here.
This I'll disagree with you on. Perhaps it's something to do with the lack of infrastructure.
The exploitation just might turn out to be non-feasible after you add the infrastructure to any project.
This ties into the whole taxation issue.
The money is there the issue is that the government simply doesn't collect what it needs to invest in those projects.
As I stated further up in the post if the government kept it's tax to GDP ratio at a constant 18% (Kyrgyzstan has it at 24% as per the WB the last I checked) since FY99 and borrowed what it did we would have had over $170 billion USD to invest directly into these projects from mining our lignite ourselves, mining our gold/copper deposits, finally getting into steel production utilizing only locally sourced iron ore, etc...
My personal view is that successive governments refuse to raise the necessary tax revenues because once they do the middle and upper classes in general who are going to be increasingly paying out of their own pockets are going to get more seriously involved in politics with many more coming out to vote. They will also increasingly demand more from the government and when they fail to deliver, which I know they will, parties like the PML-N, PPP, MQM, ANP, etc... will lose their support base if not have newly registered voters come out against them shifting support to other parties (I suspect support to go to parties like the PTI and JI). These parties simply don't want to upset the status quo and face the threat of losing elections but in the process doom Pakistan.
Economic Security isn't negligible either. George Soros would agree with me on this.
What's that quote associated with Lord Nathan Rothschild;
I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The Man who control Britain's money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply.
I completely agree and it's why I campaign for a protectionist economic policy and drastically increasing the funding of the FBR as well as border security to enforce tax compliance and raise tax revenue.
Pakistan's issue has been that it was too reliant on trade with the US but now is becoming increasingly reliant on China and needs investment in a host of industries in order to curb imports and become more self sufficient. This is one of the primary reasons why I believe the NRO was signed, NATO transit was allowed and constitutional amendments like the 18th amendment were passed while we've been forced to curb our interests regionally (ex. in Afghanistan) and work to free Kashmir from Indian occupation.
This is also why I believe foreign NGO's who directly or indirectly assist in the spy campaigns of foreign nations being allowed to stay by either the government and/or military leadership.