NATO jet fighters fly on the Pak Afghan border

[Donatello]

because all of them ..and I mean all of them that inhabit that section of the Potowhar Plateu, are now thoroughly convinced that Pakistan is a lost cause.. and the best thing to do now..is to make as many apples as you can out of the withering forest.. before the earthquake strikes.

@Oscar now what would be the reason for that?

 

[jahangeer yousaf]

so what My Cheif Gen Kiyani and President Zardari give a **** about it ..... let them fly even in the territory of Pakistan and let them kill Pakistani aswell but if they kill any of the Pakistani soldier then we will close the supply routes again for one year ... so carry on and let the dollars come ......

 

[Rafael]

because all of them ..and I mean all of them that inhabit that section of the Potowhar Plateu, are now thoroughly convinced that Pakistan is a lost cause.. and the best thing to do now..is to make as many apples as you can out of the withering forest.. before the earthquake strikes.

That unfortunately is true.

 

[Mav3rick]

Such a capability would deter US from even thinking of incidents like the one happened in salala..

Not necessarily. However, it would ensure that the US thinks twice. Even having the ability to strike US mainland would not necessarily mean any country would be stupid enough to do that unless absolutely left with no other option.

 

[Mav3rick]

Or attacking Pakistan before such a capability becomes operational.

They would have attacked Pakistan before Pakistan become a Nuclear Power if that had been a purpose and part of plan. However, should the possibility deter us from achieving the capability that would ensure even the mightiest of super powers think a few times before carrying out merciless and moral less attacks inside our borders.

 

[Mav3rick]

You seem to forget this...since you are only observing in one dimension.
After your nuclear tests, you were isolated from the world. Your products boycotted, your economy overburdened with loans.. and heading down the drain. Your military hardware sanctioned, the Nuclear weapons became your only(and mistakenly) assets to protect Pakistan.

Smash sanctions is easier said than done.. to you , who have not actually experienced the effect of sanctions.. the many people whose businesses fail because their items can no longer be sold.. or to those Military planners whose most potent hardware is left useless.
In even more extreme cases, where certain chemicals which are essential to life saving meds are banned.. people die and suffer.
Easy to comment.. not so easy to actually understand.. being gung ho is easy.. standing in the middle of the boxing ring shouting brave statements is easy.. taking punches not so..

A nuclear test was directed at India.. and the fact that India exists to counter Pakistan suited the US, even though the Nuclear capability dented their perfect equation. Since at any time, Pakistan was never a direct threat to the US.
An ICBM.. has nothing to do with India.. it is a direct statement to the US.
North Korea.. for all its squeaking has not been able to test any actual semblance of a deliverable nuclear warhead.. and with AQ Khan(and the associated Brass and Civil servants) no longer active.. the ability to extract knowledge is scarce.
China is not going to give them a weapon..
Iran in all its squaking has no capability other than semi-reliable rockets that work and dont work.
The simple fact is, a strike on Iran is up to the US..
After all, when they wanted to hit Iraq.. they made it up out of thin air..
what makes you think they cant do the same to you.
Once they have turned you into Iraq that is through sanctions, internal rebellion.. a devastated national integration.. etc

The supplies action that we took, had its toll on them.. until they used it to force restructuring and use other routes.. thereby reducing their dependence on us and now are even bolder in pushing us. .. Barking only works till the bigger dog decides to bark back.

An iron man commanding our forces will have little effect when all he has is land to defend and no nation in it.
Iron men may be able to hold out each nation..but if they arent interested in working together..
All that will occur is each iron man and their nations having their own states..
Isnt that what is expected of Pakistan anyway nowadays?

Attacking Pakistan or Iran.. is fairly easy for the US.. but it has two key objectives.
First, protect Israel from any retaliation. Second, if the "battle" can be won without the use of military resources, without a prolongued and hard fought conflict.. that it is preferable.

A concentrated attack.. on say.. Pakistan's Nukes ..would take resources and be expensive today.
However, say five years down the line, if Pakistan continues to become a fragmented state with the military occupied with tackling multiple rebellions and a complete failure of instituitions.
With paid personnel within the Military that would be prepared to leak plans and sabotage equipment in return for a chance to live the American dream.
With multiple independence and religious warlord groups..
it would be fairly easy to target nuclear command and control,production and assembly facilities.
And hope to take out as many of Pakistan's nuclear assets.. in the guise of protecting the people of the country from terrorist possession of the Nukes.
And the people, especially the ruling elite that would be leading the masses.. would not make much noise... and eventually after a hue and cry..
The sheep would return to getting busy grazing as much of whatever is left.. and fighting over the remaining fodder.

You, too, seem to have forgotten something. Our imports far outweigh our exports. Oil, being the primary import item, can be imported from middle east countries despite the severest of sanctions and from Iran as well. A very high rate of import items are luxury goods that we can all 'live' without. There are many countries of the world that would continue to trade with us even if the US sanctions us that includes Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, Iran, China, Brazil, Cuba, North Korea, many African countries etc. and perhaps even France, Germany & Japan.

Besides, you want these trades at what cost? Your country's pride and dignity have already been compromised.....your security is at risk too, you willing to continue with the trend? If you have time, read up on the German resolve during their war. They practically ran through the world and would have overrun it had they not taken on some of the mightiest countries simultaneously. The more I read about their pride, the more I admire them and Hitler....the man did love his country madly. Their over aggressiveness caused their downfall, however had they been truly a defensive country they would have been the strongest in the world with technology leaps and bounds beyond any other country.

 

[SQ8]

You, too, seem to have forgotten something. Our imports far outweigh our exports. Oil, being the primary import item, can be imported from middle east countries despite the severest of sanctions and from Iran as well. A very high rate of import items are luxury goods that we can all 'live' without. There are many countries of the world that would continue to trade with us even if the US sanctions us that includes Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, Iran, China, Brazil, Cuba, North Korea, many African countries etc. and perhaps even France, Germany & Japan.

Besides, you want these trades at what cost? Your country's pride and dignity have already been compromised.....your security is at risk too, you willing to continue with the trend? If you have time, read up on the German resolve during their war. They practically ran through the world and would have overrun it had they not taken on some of the mightiest countries simultaneously. The more I read about their pride, the more I admire them and Hitler....the man did love his country madly. Their over aggressiveness caused their downfall, however had they been truly a defensive country they would have been the strongest in the world with technology leaps and bounds beyond any other country.

You assume that these goods are easily gone without?
Please explain how ordinary Pakistanis would do without these "luxury" good that you point out.

 

[Mav3rick]

You assume that these goods are easily gone without?
Please explain how ordinary Pakistanis would do without these "luxury" good that you point out.

My friend, do you think your ordinary Pakistani drives around in fancy imported vehicles or bathes in fancy imported body washes or uses fancy imported shampoos & conditioners or uses fancy imported air conditioners or the list goes on. It's the 15-20% of the middle class that has started abusing their newly found financial stability while the 5% elite has always done it. But the rest of the 75%-80% country lives in absolute poverty who wouldn't care less if luxury items were either not imported at all or imported only from countries that are willing to trade on barter system such as Iran and China.

Lets dump the US$ gradually, that would be a start. I myself have faced harsh winter colds and now I find it physically intolerable if I am not being cooled by an Air Conditioners. However, I am willing to make the sacrifice and I am willing to do a lot more for my country. The will has to be there.

 

[batmannow]

You seem to forget this...since you are only observing in one dimension.
After your nuclear tests, you were isolated from the world. Your products boycotted, your economy overburdened with loans.. and heading down the drain. Your military hardware sanctioned, the Nuclear weapons became your only(and mistakenly) assets to protect Pakistan.

Smash sanctions is easier said than done.. to you , who have not actually experienced the effect of sanctions.. the many people whose businesses fail because their items can no longer be sold.. or to those Military planners whose most potent hardware is left useless.
In even more extreme cases, where certain chemicals which are essential to life saving meds are banned.. people die and suffer.
Easy to comment.. not so easy to actually understand.. being gung ho is easy.. standing in the middle of the boxing ring shouting brave statements is easy.. taking punches not so..

A nuclear test was directed at India.. and the fact that India exists to counter Pakistan suited the US, even though the Nuclear capability dented their perfect equation. Since at any time, Pakistan was never a direct threat to the US.
An ICBM.. has nothing to do with India.. it is a direct statement to the US.
North Korea.. for all its squeaking has not been able to test any actual semblance of a deliverable nuclear warhead.. and with AQ Khan(and the associated Brass and Civil servants) no longer active.. the ability to extract knowledge is scarce.
China is not going to give them a weapon..
Iran in all its squaking has no capability other than semi-reliable rockets that work and dont work.
The simple fact is, a strike on Iran is up to the US..
After all, when they wanted to hit Iraq.. they made it up out of thin air..
what makes you think they cant do the same to you.
Once they have turned you into Iraq that is through sanctions, internal rebellion.. a devastated national integration.. etc

The supplies action that we took, had its toll on them.. until they used it to force restructuring and use other routes.. thereby reducing their dependence on us and now are even bolder in pushing us. .. Barking only works till the bigger dog decides to bark back.

An iron man commanding our forces will have little effect when all he has is land to defend and no nation in it.
Iron men may be able to hold out each nation..but if they arent interested in working together..
All that will occur is each iron man and their nations having their own states..
Isnt that what is expected of Pakistan anyway nowadays?

Attacking Pakistan or Iran.. is fairly easy for the US.. but it has two key objectives.
First, protect Israel from any retaliation. Second, if the "battle" can be won without the use of military resources, without a prolongued and hard fought conflict.. that it is preferable.

A concentrated attack.. on say.. Pakistan's Nukes ..would take resources and be expensive today.
However, say five years down the line, if Pakistan continues to become a fragmented state with the military occupied with tackling multiple rebellions and a complete failure of instituitions.
With paid personnel within the Military that would be prepared to leak plans and sabotage equipment in return for a chance to live the American dream.
With multiple independence and religious warlord groups..
it would be fairly easy to target nuclear command and control,production and assembly facilities.
And hope to take out as many of Pakistan's nuclear assets.. in the guise of protecting the people of the country from terrorist possession of the Nukes.
And the people, especially the ruling elite that would be leading the masses.. would not make much noise... and eventually after a hue and cry..
The sheep would return to getting busy grazing as much of whatever is left.. and fighting over the remaining fodder.

thanks for showing me, enemy,s well thought dimentions!
but veitnam war, & the present body language in afghanistan of enemy are totaly true & real dimentions that they cant win , which i feel it in my mind!
what you think about that?
as war vetrn i think like a soilder, but for you its all pice of fine plan crafted in pentagon, which only looks good on paper?
all these fake perceptions created , to justyfy all the wrong doings of our heads who are working in thier own selfintersts?

 

[SQ8]

thanks for showing me, enemy,s well thought dimentions!
but veitnam war, & the present body language in afghanistan of enemy are totaly true & real dimentions that they cant win , which i feel it in my mind!
what you think about that?
as war vetrn i think like a soilder, but for you its all pice of fine plan crafted in pentagon, which only looks good on paper?
all these fake perceptions created , to justyfy all the wrong doings of our heads who are working in thier own selfintersts?

Vietnam left Vietnam in tatters.. Cambodia socially and morally destroyed.
The current body language in Afghanistan is to make another mutated Cambodia or worse out of Pakistan.
Everything looks good on paper....
Kargil looked good on paper.. Operation Eagle Claw looked good on paper.
But the results show otherwise.

However, the actual warfare... that disrupts the economic , social and national fabric is the much more potent one.
This is a lesson learnt through places like Vietnam..
Even in Afghanistan.. the population is scattered.. and today if the US does leave.. its back to the 90's again..
which means hell for us.
Our leaders only help these efforts along..
So if there is a chance of some 50% success in these ideas.. our leadership makes sure it goes all the way to 80%.

 

[batmannow]

Vietnam left Vietnam in tatters.. Cambodia socially and morally destroyed.
The current body language in Afghanistan is to make another mutated Cambodia or worse out of Pakistan.
Everything looks good on paper....
Kargil looked good on paper.. Operation Eagle Claw looked good on paper.
But the results show otherwise.

However, the actual warfare... that disrupts the economic , social and national fabric is the much more potent one.
This is a lesson learnt through places like Vietnam..
Even in Afghanistan.. the population is scattered.. and today if the US does leave.. its back to the 90's again..
which means hell for us.
Our leaders only help these efforts along..
So if there is a chance of some 50% success in these ideas.. our leadership makes sure it goes all the way to 80%.

Asia’s Next Booming Economy
By William Pesek Jul 6, 2012 2:00 AM GMT+0500

Myanmar’s conversion to democracy is breathing new life into a project with a terminally boring name: Greater Mekong Subregion.
This name was bestowed on an investment bloc that the Asian Development Bank put together in 1992. It was made up of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and China’s Yunnan Province. Talk about odd bedfellows. It mixes constitutional monarchies, immature multiparty democracies, communist states and military regimes suddenly mulling elections with one thing in common -- a waterway that’s central to the livelihood of 330 million people.

The potential of the resource-rich Mekong River region has long intrigued Asia-philes. If only this area got its act together, trade might flourish and markets in this next frontier of the Asian growth story could take off. Myanmar’s opening makes this possible for the first time.
Myanmar’s reforms don’t ensure success, though. That requires overcoming three big challenges: cordial relations with and among its neighbors, weathering the next global crisis and navigating the region’s role as a proxy for U.S. and Chinese designs on Asia.
In December, about the time Secretary of State Hillary Clinton became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Myanmar in a half century, Mekong leaders endorsed a 10-year plan: tighter integration, more open trade and market-oriented financial policies, better use of natural resources, improved infrastructure, increased tourism, and poverty reduction.
Competitive Advantages
“The idea is that in order to flourish together, we must work together,” says Neav Chanthana, the deputy governor of the National Bank of Cambodia.
Adds Chartsiri Sophonpanich, the president of Bangkok Bank Pcl: “What makes this workable is that different countries in our region really do offer complementary competitive advantages.” Thailand has banking expertise and sophisticated markets; Myanmar has substantial stores of petroleum, natural gas and copper; Laos has considerable hydropower know-how; Vietnam and Cambodia boast young and growing populations; Yunnan Province offers labor and a pathway to the world’s fastest- growing major economy.
Yet Asia’s history with co-ordination is spotty. Japan and South Korea can’t put aside anger over World War II long enough to share intelligence on North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Asean, engages in meaningless summits and proved out of its depth when global markets crashed in 2008.
One enduring feature is distrust. Asean’s 10 members covet sovereignty more than the European Union and have vastly different takes on financial openness, press freedom and human rights. Co-operation is often in short supply as one nation undercuts another for short-term gain. Bilateral trade agreements have proven easier to negotiate than regional ones.
“If people are already looking at Asean integration with caution, they will take the Mekong subregion with even more skepticism,” says Tai Hui, Singapore-based head of Southeast Asian research at Standard Chartered Plc.
Europe’s debt crisis will test Asia as rarely before. The good news, says Xaypaseuth Phomsoupha, general director of Laos’s Ministry of Energy and Mines, is that the Mekong region is “more insulated” from global turmoil. “The bad news,” he says, “is that more trouble overseas will leave less money for development projects at home.”
How Asia copes with Europe’s coming meltdown will say much about its ability to increase growth, create jobs and raise living standards. That goes, too, for China’s ability to play the role of growth engine. Yet China is a controversial player in the Mekong region.
Seething Friends
Even as governments woo Asia’s biggest economy, they seethe over the huge Chinese dam projects that are reducing flows downstream. These have led to water shortages, depletion of soil nutrients, reduced food production and trouble for fisheries and ecosystems.
Another flashpoint is the South China Sea. The drilling plans of China National Offshore Oil Corp. have enraged the Vietnamese. China has repeatedly shown a willingness to provoke conflicts in disputed waters, as it has with the Philippines and Japan. If one of these spins out of control it would cost China dearly by driving Asian governments to seek more support from Washington.
For Clinton and President Barack Obama, the Mekong region is a microcosm of China-U.S. relations. Obama’s so-called pivot to Asia has unnerved officials in Beijing, who almost see the Mekong region as their birthright. Access to natural resources is almost secondary. The bigger issue is who holds sway over Asia a decade from now.
The creative tension emanating from U.S. and Chinese engagement has its benefits. As both jockey for advantage, the Mekong nations can play one off against the other and seek investment, security assurances and free-trade agreements. Yet there’s ample scope for things to go awry.
For all the challenges, Myanmar’s rebirth is a fresh start for the Mekong region. The process won’t be smooth and it won’t necessarily go as planned. But when a promising economic area with an American-size population joins hands, the potential can only grow.
(William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)


To contact the writer of this article: William Pesek in Bangkok at wpesek@bloomberg.net





Meet the Best ASEAN Economy in 2012: Booming Laos, Powered by Liberalization and the Informal Economy
Which has been ASEAN’s best performing economy in 2012?
prudent investor newsletters: Meet the Best ASEAN Economy in 2012: Booming Laos, Powered by Liberalization and the Informal Economy
Well it’s not what the politically blinded domestic media and politicians think...

Instead Laos gets the credit, according to the Wall Street Journal, (bold mine)
To be sure, 8.3% growth isn’t exactly going to set investors’ hearts aflutter given that landlocked Laos has Southeast Asia’s smallest economy, and the opportunities for making money there are limited. Road and rail links are limited and the lack of a skilled labor makes Laos a tough bet for large manufacturing operations.

But this year’s strong performance underscores the longer-term trend in a country that has consistently been one of Asia’s outperformers, including average growth of 7% a year over the past decade. Although nominally a Communist nation, Laos has liberalized its economy since the 1980s, and income levels have been rising.

Much of the country’s growth these days is coming from mining, hydroelectric power and construction, all of which are relatively insulated from the turmoil in Europe and the related drop in export activity that has hurt some other Southeast Asian nations. Some economists fear Laos may be over-reliant on those sectors, despite their resilience this year.

But Laos is expected to be accepted into the World Trade Organization on Friday, and over time that should help it attract more diverse drivers for the economy, including more of the manufacturing that has transformed other Southeast Asian nations. Leaders are especially hopeful Laos can lure some of the garment-factory investment that has helped create tens of thousands of jobs in nearby Cambodia.

Either way, Laos is already seeing the impact of all the recent growth, with conspicuous consumption noticeably on the increase. Shiny new Cadillacs and Mercedes Benz cars – and even at least one Ferrari – are spotted on Vientiane’s streets. Sushi restaurants, boutique hotels and wine bars are proliferating.

A. Barend Frielink, deputy country director for the Asian Development Bank in Vientiane, says he almost ran into a Bentley in town recently.

“There is suddenly a lot of cash” in Laos, he said—so much so that economists don’t have a fully satisfactory explanation for all the spending. Partly it’s because Vientiane has undergone such a construction boom in recent years, with major projects to build new hotels and upgrade roads. Analysts have also pointed to gains from illicit drug trading and logging, though the economy has also earned a lot from its more legitimate sources of growth, including mining, that have helped spawn a larger consumer class.
Some important insights:

Geographical quirks such as being “landlocked” serves not as an obstacle to wealth generation brought about by voluntary trade or economic freedom.

Laos’ outperformance has principally been driven by policies of liberalization and the informal economy.



GDP per capita (US dollar) has been exploding since Laos 1980s when she began liberalization, chart from Tradingeconomics.com

And as consequence to liberalization policies and the prospective inclusion to the World Trade Organization (WTO), economic growth which essentially emanated from very small base should translate to further leaps in output expansion.



In addition, the Stock Exchange in Laos or the Lao Security Exchange (LSX) which began operations in 2011 had been up 16.7% on a year to date basis, as of last Friday’s close. The above chart from Bloomberg, exhibits the LSX since its inception.

Lastly, the mainstream’s ‘confusions’ about where cash or economic growth has been coming from, like the Philippines, has largely been due to the poor understanding of the informal sector.

The IMF estimates the informal sector as accounting for 33.4% of the GDP of Laos (2002-2003).

I think the role of the shadow sector has been immensely underestimated.



The informal sector share of the labor force according to ASEANSEC.org accounts for over 40% in 2005.

For the mainstream, the informal economy functions like a vacuum or an unreal world or has been reduced to illegal transactions, which hardly has been accurate. Yes there are some immoral activities, but they account only for a fraction.

However in Laos, a large segment of the informal sector deals with agriculture related products, goods and or services.

The informal economy becomes a huge puzzle when reality and statistics via the expert’s econometric models do not add up.

They forget that a priori, the thrust for human survival is either through economic or political means (Franz Oppenheimer)

Economic means is when people intuitively will work to survive through the formal or through the informal shadow economy or through “politically illegitimated” trades.

Or the alternative, stealing or plunder which have mostly been coursed through the political route.

A social system that survives segments of unproductivity can only be made through redistribution or through parasitical relationship through coercive mandates.

[As an aside the problem of individual unproductivity can be handled through the family or the individual’s networks or the community, whereas the problems of aggression can be dealt with by domestic law]



So the above account simply shows that the average person in Laos has opted for the former which has brought them this newfound prosperity.

Whereas the political leaders of Laos has gradually been relenting to the forces of globalization as revealed by a surging merchandise trade as % of GDP which has passed the 2006 highs (chart from World Bank)

Finally the consensus also forgets that social policies (taxes, regulations, bureaucracy, interventions and etc&#8230 have never been neutral, as these policies greatly affects of influences people’s incentives from which they operate on for survival.



i can put more if you like?
plz dont misguide & paint everything black , if you cant open your eyes dear?
if US leaves afghanistan, yes there would be a hell out there , but one thing would be reminded in the history , which would be a militry lose to USA?
& thn no one can blame us if afghan talibans back in power again?
"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."

"Problems of War and Strategy" (November 6, 1938), Selected Works, Vol. II, p. 224.


The seizure of power by armed force, the settlement of the issue by war, is the central task and the highest form of revolution. This Marxist-Leninist principle of revolution holds good universally, for China and for all other countries.


from sudan to libya, thn from iraq to afghanistan, thn again from tunesia to sirya, this golden rule is in action by US & NATO?
we just need a single good man in uniform!

 

[SQ8]

Asia’s Next Booming Economy
By William Pesek Jul 6, 2012 2:00 AM GMT+0500

Myanmar’s conversion to democracy is breathing new life into a project with a terminally boring name: Greater Mekong Subregion.
This name was bestowed on an investment bloc that the Asian Development Bank put together in 1992. It was made up of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and China’s Yunnan Province. Talk about odd bedfellows. It mixes constitutional monarchies, immature multiparty democracies, communist states and military regimes suddenly mulling elections with one thing in common -- a waterway that’s central to the livelihood of 330 million people.

The potential of the resource-rich Mekong River region has long intrigued Asia-philes. If only this area got its act together, trade might flourish and markets in this next frontier of the Asian growth story could take off. Myanmar’s opening makes this possible for the first time.
Myanmar’s reforms don’t ensure success, though. That requires overcoming three big challenges: cordial relations with and among its neighbors, weathering the next global crisis and navigating the region’s role as a proxy for U.S. and Chinese designs on Asia.
In December, about the time Secretary of State Hillary Clinton became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Myanmar in a half century, Mekong leaders endorsed a 10-year plan: tighter integration, more open trade and market-oriented financial policies, better use of natural resources, improved infrastructure, increased tourism, and poverty reduction.
Competitive Advantages
“The idea is that in order to flourish together, we must work together,” says Neav Chanthana, the deputy governor of the National Bank of Cambodia.
Adds Chartsiri Sophonpanich, the president of Bangkok Bank Pcl: “What makes this workable is that different countries in our region really do offer complementary competitive advantages.” Thailand has banking expertise and sophisticated markets; Myanmar has substantial stores of petroleum, natural gas and copper; Laos has considerable hydropower know-how; Vietnam and Cambodia boast young and growing populations; Yunnan Province offers labor and a pathway to the world’s fastest- growing major economy.
Yet Asia’s history with co-ordination is spotty. Japan and South Korea can’t put aside anger over World War II long enough to share intelligence on North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Asean, engages in meaningless summits and proved out of its depth when global markets crashed in 2008.
One enduring feature is distrust. Asean’s 10 members covet sovereignty more than the European Union and have vastly different takes on financial openness, press freedom and human rights. Co-operation is often in short supply as one nation undercuts another for short-term gain. Bilateral trade agreements have proven easier to negotiate than regional ones.
“If people are already looking at Asean integration with caution, they will take the Mekong subregion with even more skepticism,” says Tai Hui, Singapore-based head of Southeast Asian research at Standard Chartered Plc.
Europe’s debt crisis will test Asia as rarely before. The good news, says Xaypaseuth Phomsoupha, general director of Laos’s Ministry of Energy and Mines, is that the Mekong region is “more insulated” from global turmoil. “The bad news,” he says, “is that more trouble overseas will leave less money for development projects at home.”
How Asia copes with Europe’s coming meltdown will say much about its ability to increase growth, create jobs and raise living standards. That goes, too, for China’s ability to play the role of growth engine. Yet China is a controversial player in the Mekong region.
Seething Friends
Even as governments woo Asia’s biggest economy, they seethe over the huge Chinese dam projects that are reducing flows downstream. These have led to water shortages, depletion of soil nutrients, reduced food production and trouble for fisheries and ecosystems.
Another flashpoint is the South China Sea. The drilling plans of China National Offshore Oil Corp. have enraged the Vietnamese. China has repeatedly shown a willingness to provoke conflicts in disputed waters, as it has with the Philippines and Japan. If one of these spins out of control it would cost China dearly by driving Asian governments to seek more support from Washington.
For Clinton and President Barack Obama, the Mekong region is a microcosm of China-U.S. relations. Obama’s so-called pivot to Asia has unnerved officials in Beijing, who almost see the Mekong region as their birthright. Access to natural resources is almost secondary. The bigger issue is who holds sway over Asia a decade from now.
The creative tension emanating from U.S. and Chinese engagement has its benefits. As both jockey for advantage, the Mekong nations can play one off against the other and seek investment, security assurances and free-trade agreements. Yet there’s ample scope for things to go awry.
For all the challenges, Myanmar’s rebirth is a fresh start for the Mekong region. The process won’t be smooth and it won’t necessarily go as planned. But when a promising economic area with an American-size population joins hands, the potential can only grow.
(William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)


To contact the writer of this article: William Pesek in Bangkok at wpesek@bloomberg.net





Meet the Best ASEAN Economy in 2012: Booming Laos, Powered by Liberalization and the Informal Economy
Which has been ASEAN’s best performing economy in 2012?
prudent investor newsletters: Meet the Best ASEAN Economy in 2012: Booming Laos, Powered by Liberalization and the Informal Economy
Well it’s not what the politically blinded domestic media and politicians think...

Instead Laos gets the credit, according to the Wall Street Journal, (bold mine)
To be sure, 8.3% growth isn’t exactly going to set investors’ hearts aflutter given that landlocked Laos has Southeast Asia’s smallest economy, and the opportunities for making money there are limited. Road and rail links are limited and the lack of a skilled labor makes Laos a tough bet for large manufacturing operations.

But this year’s strong performance underscores the longer-term trend in a country that has consistently been one of Asia’s outperformers, including average growth of 7% a year over the past decade. Although nominally a Communist nation, Laos has liberalized its economy since the 1980s, and income levels have been rising.

Much of the country’s growth these days is coming from mining, hydroelectric power and construction, all of which are relatively insulated from the turmoil in Europe and the related drop in export activity that has hurt some other Southeast Asian nations. Some economists fear Laos may be over-reliant on those sectors, despite their resilience this year.

But Laos is expected to be accepted into the World Trade Organization on Friday, and over time that should help it attract more diverse drivers for the economy, including more of the manufacturing that has transformed other Southeast Asian nations. Leaders are especially hopeful Laos can lure some of the garment-factory investment that has helped create tens of thousands of jobs in nearby Cambodia.

Either way, Laos is already seeing the impact of all the recent growth, with conspicuous consumption noticeably on the increase. Shiny new Cadillacs and Mercedes Benz cars – and even at least one Ferrari – are spotted on Vientiane’s streets. Sushi restaurants, boutique hotels and wine bars are proliferating.

A. Barend Frielink, deputy country director for the Asian Development Bank in Vientiane, says he almost ran into a Bentley in town recently.

“There is suddenly a lot of cash” in Laos, he said—so much so that economists don’t have a fully satisfactory explanation for all the spending. Partly it’s because Vientiane has undergone such a construction boom in recent years, with major projects to build new hotels and upgrade roads. Analysts have also pointed to gains from illicit drug trading and logging, though the economy has also earned a lot from its more legitimate sources of growth, including mining, that have helped spawn a larger consumer class.
Some important insights:

Geographical quirks such as being “landlocked” serves not as an obstacle to wealth generation brought about by voluntary trade or economic freedom.

Laos’ outperformance has principally been driven by policies of liberalization and the informal economy.



GDP per capita (US dollar) has been exploding since Laos 1980s when she began liberalization, chart from Tradingeconomics.com

And as consequence to liberalization policies and the prospective inclusion to the World Trade Organization (WTO), economic growth which essentially emanated from very small base should translate to further leaps in output expansion.



In addition, the Stock Exchange in Laos or the Lao Security Exchange (LSX) which began operations in 2011 had been up 16.7% on a year to date basis, as of last Friday’s close. The above chart from Bloomberg, exhibits the LSX since its inception.

Lastly, the mainstream’s ‘confusions’ about where cash or economic growth has been coming from, like the Philippines, has largely been due to the poor understanding of the informal sector.

The IMF estimates the informal sector as accounting for 33.4% of the GDP of Laos (2002-2003).

I think the role of the shadow sector has been immensely underestimated.



The informal sector share of the labor force according to ASEANSEC.org accounts for over 40% in 2005.

For the mainstream, the informal economy functions like a vacuum or an unreal world or has been reduced to illegal transactions, which hardly has been accurate. Yes there are some immoral activities, but they account only for a fraction.

However in Laos, a large segment of the informal sector deals with agriculture related products, goods and or services.

The informal economy becomes a huge puzzle when reality and statistics via the expert’s econometric models do not add up.

They forget that a priori, the thrust for human survival is either through economic or political means (Franz Oppenheimer)

Economic means is when people intuitively will work to survive through the formal or through the informal shadow economy or through “politically illegitimated” trades.

Or the alternative, stealing or plunder which have mostly been coursed through the political route.

A social system that survives segments of unproductivity can only be made through redistribution or through parasitical relationship through coercive mandates.

[As an aside the problem of individual unproductivity can be handled through the family or the individual’s networks or the community, whereas the problems of aggression can be dealt with by domestic law]



So the above account simply shows that the average person in Laos has opted for the former which has brought them this newfound prosperity.

Whereas the political leaders of Laos has gradually been relenting to the forces of globalization as revealed by a surging merchandise trade as % of GDP which has passed the 2006 highs (chart from World Bank)

Finally the consensus also forgets that social policies (taxes, regulations, bureaucracy, interventions and etc&#8230 have never been neutral, as these policies greatly affects of influences people’s incentives from which they operate on for survival.



i can put more if you like?
plz dont misguide & paint everything black , if you cant open your eyes dear?
if US leaves afghanistan, yes there would be a hell out there , but one thing would be reminded in the history , which would be a militry lose to USA?
& thn no one can blame us if afghan talibans back in power again?
"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."

"Problems of War and Strategy" (November 6, 1938), Selected Works, Vol. II, p. 224.


The seizure of power by armed force, the settlement of the issue by war, is the central task and the highest form of revolution. This Marxist-Leninist principle of revolution holds good universally, for China and for all other countries.


from sudan to libya, thn from iraq to afghanistan, thn again from tunesia to sirya, this golden rule is in action by US & NATO?
we just need a single good man in uniform!

Look at the loss of life.. the setback..
Had the US NOT intervened.. Vietnam may have moved on much faster.

The issue is not of a SINGLE good man in uniform..
the issue is of Many average but Honest men in all institutions.

 

[batmannow]

Look at the loss of life.. the setback..
Had the US NOT intervened.. Vietnam may have moved on much faster.

The issue is not of a SINGLE good man in uniform..
the issue is of Many average but Honest men in all institutions.

expected better than that from you friend!
its same telling me if there was no war of independence in usa, USA would be better thn this?
sory bt check the history , its always a single man leading the front!
your love with this conspirated , & artificialy installed DAM-CRAZY, will lead us nowhere, just like it took MOHD MORSI no where?
to fight a war you need soilders, not farmars & not dam dentists?
we are at war, thus we need soilders & a potent brave leader!
NATO guys think us as thier enemies, thats why they are in the air to gurd thier assests on the ground thats not a rocket scince?
but at the same time taking both IRAN & PAKISTAN militrly by NATO & its allies is no option!