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One way, it can be a good ploy by BJP, because it will sets the leadership issue to rest. Modi has mass following among hardcore BJP supporters and has proved to be good CM
It can also be bad ploy because Modi as PM candidate will polarize votes and may alienate some of the allies such as Nitesh.
Hard choice for BJP
Without Modi, the NDA – with Nitish Kumar in tow – gets all of 179, and the BJP 137.
With Modi, the BJP-led NDA takes a giant leap both in vote share and seat count. While NDA’s vote share rises from 31 percent to 36 percent – so 5 percent is the Modi vote share effect – the seat count goes up to 220, just 52 short of majority. This means a 41-seat advantage due to Modi.
The big impact is in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where the Modi bandwagon raises the BJP seat share from 10 in 2009 to 29 even while whittling down the BSP and Congress. The Samajwadi Party, which expects a consolidation of the Muslim vote, also gains, with its seats rising from 23 in 2009 to 30.
Bihar is the biggest surprise: given Nitish Kumar’s known antipathy to Modi, any projection of Modi could result in Kumar breaking away from the NDA, but this actually benefits the BJP. Thanks to a reverse consolidation of upper caste and some lower OBC votes, the BJP’s seats go up from 12 in 2009 to 18, while Nitish Kumar actually loses seats – from 20 to nine.