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Moon Jae-in wins South Korea’s presidential election

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-election-idUSKBN18425S?il=0

Moon Jae-in wins South Korea’s presidential election

Liberal politician Moon Jae-in decisively won South Korea's presidential election on Tuesday, television networks declared, an expected victory ending nearly a decade of conservative rule and bringing a more conciliatory approach toward North Korea.

Moon's victory will end months of political turmoil that led to parliament's impeachment of conservative former President Park Geun-hye over an extensive corruption scandal, which a court upheld in March. Park became the first democratically elected leader in South Korea to be removed from office, triggering a snap election to choose her successor.

Climbing a temporary stage set up in the main square in downtown Seoul, a beaming Moon surrounded by his Democratic Party leaders, vowed to usher in a new era for a country badly bruised by the scandal in a midnight victory speech.

"I will make a just, united country," he told a crowd gathered to see the former human rights lawyer who entered politics just five years ago. "I will be a president who also serves all the people who did not support me."

With 80 percent of the votes counted at 1705 GMT, Moon was ahead with 40 percent, according to the National Election Commission. A conservative challenger, former prosecutor Hong Joon-pyo, was next with 25.5 percent followed by centrist candidate Ahn Cheol-soo with 21.4 percent.

A plurality of votes is enough for victory.

The results were in line with an exit poll by South Korea's three biggest broadcasters, which showed Moon, 64, capturing 41.4 percent of the votes in a field of 13 candidates.

"If exit polls are true, I will accept the results and just be satisfied with the fact that the Liberty Korea Party will be restored," a downcast Hong told members of his conservative party.

Ahn said he would "humbly accept" the result.

Voter turnout was 77.2 percent, the highest in 20 years, but short of the expected 80 percent mark, as voters headed to the polls in drizzly weather.

The White House congratulated Moon on his election win, saying it looked forward to working with him to strengthen the longstanding U.S.-South Korea alliance.

A U.S. official said Moon's election could add "volatility" to ties with Washington, given his questioning of deployment of a U.S. missile defense there and his advocacy of engagement with North Korea when the Trump administration seeks to step up pressure on Pyongyang over its nuclear and missile programs.

But the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Moon may moderate his stance on installation of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system once he is in office and is not expected to significantly alter the alliance.


FRACTURED PARLIAMENT

Moon is expected to be sworn in for a five-year term later on Wednesday. He has said he would skip a lavish inauguration ceremony and start work straight away.

He is likely to quickly name a prime minister, who will need parliamentary approval. The main cabinet posts, including national security and finance ministers, do not need parliamentary confirmation.

Moon, who narrowly lost to Park in the last presidential election in 2012, favours dialogue with North Korea to ease tension over its accelerating nuclear and missile program. He also wants to reform powerful family-run conglomerates, such as Samsung and Hyundai, and boost fiscal spending to create jobs.

Moon has criticized the two previous conservative governments for failing to stop North Korea's weapons development. He advocates a two-track policy of seeking dialogue with the North while maintaining pressure and sanctions to encourage change.

His Democratic Party holds 40 percent of the single-chamber, 299-seat assembly, which means he will have to build coalitions to pass legislation.

His victory was bolstered by strong support from younger people, according to the exit polls. Many of his supporters participated in big, peaceful weekend rallies over the last few months of 2016 and early this year, demanding Park step down.

Only 22-25 percent of people in their 60s and 70s voted for Moon, exit polls showed, underscoring a long-standing generation gap. Many older people are wary of Moon's less confrontational stance on North Korea.


SOUTH KOREA FIRST

The election is being closely watched abroad at a time of high tension with North Korea, which is believed to be preparing for a sixth nuclear test and has vowed to test an intercontinental missile.

Britain's Sky News quoted North Korea's ambassador to the Britain, Choe Il, as saying in an interview that Pyongyang would go ahead with a nuclear test "at the place and time as decided by our supreme leader, Kim Jong Un," despite international warnings not to do so.

RELATED COVERAGE
Moon, whose campaign promises include a "National Interest First" policy, has struck a chord with people who want the country to stand up to powerful allies and neighbors.

He wrote in a book published in January South Korea should learn to say "no to America".

Moon said in a YouTube live stream on Tuesday that South Korea should take on a more active diplomatic role to curb North Korea's nuclear threat and not watch idly as the United States and China talk to each other.

Moon was a close friend and confidant of late president Roh Moo-hyun, who served from 2003 to 2008 and advocated a "Sunshine Policy" of engaging North Korea through aid and exchanges.

Moon believes better inter-Korean relations is the best way to provide security. But Washington is worried his moderate stance could undercut efforts to increase pressure and sanctions, senior South Korean officials said.

"Things are not right to resume the so-called Sunshine Policy, as the U.S. and China turned more hostile toward North Korea," said Koh Yu-hwan, Dongguk University professor of North Korean studies, who is serving as a foreign policy adviser to Moon.

"Still, Moon is expected to engage in discussions, which could improve North-South relations."

Moon's election could also complicate the deployment of the THAAD system, which the former government in Seoul and the U.S. military agreed to last year and which U.S. officials said last week had reached initial operating capability.

Moon has said the decision was made too quickly and the next administration should have the final say on whether to deploy the system.
 
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Moon was a close friend and confidant of late president Roh Moo-hyun, who served from 2003 to 2008 and advocated a "Sunshine Policy" of engaging North Korea through aid and exchanges.

Bad news for US, if Sunshine Policy is restored.

Any peace president in South Korea is bad news for the US.
 
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Bad news for US, if Sunshine Policy is restored.

Any peace president in South Korea is bad news for the US.

There may be some dialogue but no Sunshine Policy.

Sunshine policy was a failure on all fronts. It didn't stop NoKo from acquiring nuclear weapons.

I have followed Moon Jae In, and his stated goals have been to initiate dialogue with NoKo (not sunshine policy) and talks with China. (no removal of Thaad)

In fact, with China's retaliation against South Korea, Thaad has suddenly become very popular in S Korea. And Moon simply doesn't have the popular support required to remove THAAD.
 
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New ROK president to visit DPRK under right conditions
Xinhua, May 10, 2017

President Moon Jae-in of South Korea said Wednesday he will visit Pyongyang, capital of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), under right conditions.

Moon was sworn in as the country's new president at a main hall of the parliamentary building, just hours after winning a landslide victory in the five-way presidential race.

His presidential power came into force right after his election victory was confirmed by the election commission as he has no usual transition period for the impeachment of his predecessor.

In a televised inaugural speech, Moon said he will be on the move for peace on the Korean Peninsula, vowing to visit Pyongyang if conditions are created.

The new leader also vowed to sincerely consult with the United States and China to resolve the issue on the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system.

Part of the U.S. missile interception system was transported in the middle of the night to the THAAD deployment site in the country's southeastern region, causing strong protests from anti-THAAD activists and residents.

Moon argued for a parliamentary ratification and public consensus for the THAAD installation that can influence the South Korean society from the diplomatic, security and economic perspectives.

***

After South China Sea, let's hope Korean Peninsula also proves to be a sub-sub region of peace, serving as an anti-thesis to US militarism.
 
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In fact, with China's retaliation against South Korea, Thaad has suddenly become very popular in S Korea. And Moon simply doesn't have the popular support required to remove THAAD.

How can you be so sure that THAAD is popular when you have locals holding rallies against it on daily basis?
 
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Sunshine policy doesn't work on Kim Jong-un. They will just take advantage of your kindness and develop a nuclear bomb no matter what.
 
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There may be some dialogue but no Sunshine Policy.

Sunshine policy was a failure on all fronts. It didn't stop NoKo from acquiring nuclear weapons.

I have followed Moon Jae In, and his stated goals have been to initiate dialogue with NoKo (not sunshine policy) and talks with China. (no removal of Thaad)

In fact, with China's retaliation against South Korea, Thaad has suddenly become very popular in S Korea. And Moon simply doesn't have the popular support required to remove THAAD.

Wrong on everything.

Moon Jae-in campaigned on dismantling THAAD as he argued that the previous-scandal ridden government had no mandate to submit to US pressure to install it. THAAD became very unpopular after Trump asked the S. Korea to pay billions in USD for its installation and the whole debacle definitely boosted MJI at the vote booth.

He also campaigned on a substantial improvement with N. Korea (i.e. a reset), including restoration of the Sunshine Policy. It matters a lot for him because his family were refugees from N. Korea. In his youth, MJI always protested and agitated against right-wing military dictators because of their harsh anti-N. Korean policy. It's obvious to see where his sympathy lies.

Bad news for US, if Sunshine Policy is restored.

Any peace president in South Korea is bad news for the US.

It's mixed news for China too. Sunshine Policy will dissipate any leverage China has over N. Korea, because then Kim will no longer be so isolated as he will have an alternative source of hard currency, petroleum, critical commodities, luxury goods, etc. In that case, it would be meaningless for US to ask China to apply more pressure.
 
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The circumstances of sunshine policy by ROK towards DPRK this time will have different circumstances than last time. The biggest difference might be that relations between the DPRK and China are not as strong as the were in the 1990s and through the first decade of the 2000s. The reduced relations is made evident by China's cooperation in pressuring North Korea. But something else that I caught wind of is that within the CPP is the Xi's main political opponent is Jiang Zemin. Whenever China carry's out the so-called "anti-corruption" campaign, it has a real agenda to remove political opposition from within the CPP. Jiang Zemin was very close to Kim Jong-il and as such many of the people that are more aligned with Jiang Zemin were also close and involved with North Korea. So as Xi removes Jiang Zemin's people in the anti-corription campaigns, he removes some of the people that were in the workings of the PRC-DPRK relation. Furthermore, China has made overtures to develop relations with South Korea in the last 4 or so years, and even having President Park visit the large 2015 military parade in China. So to some extent, while still maintaining over all preference for DPRK, China has shifted a little bit of that preference towards ROK. Naturally, if China could gain greater support in ROK towards China than ROK has for the US, then i would become a big plus for China's influence in East-Asia and even the whole western Pacific region. SO those two points, Jiang Zemin and strategic approach towards ROK.

But now, the economic related punishment on THAAD hurt relations with ROK, and the cooperation on DPRK further hurt relations it had with DPRK. Interestingly, because of THAAD, ROK-US relations have also been hurt. Support for THAAD isn't very strong right now, but the last I have seen, it has more support than against, but is shaky.
thaadpoll02.jpg

http://en.asaninst.org/contents/cha...c-opinion-toward-the-united-states-and-china/
Although this survey was before Trump said that ROK should pay for THAAD. Shortly after Trump said that, McMaster said that the US was paying for the deployment, but then shortly after that again, he said renegotiation would occur. So after this disagreement between the ROK and the US, it shouldn't be hard to imagine support dropping from the point that it was at in March.

The interesting thing is that if both the Koreas have bad relations with both China and the US, it may give them an opportunity for more room to work out unification without the bigger countries applying their interest on them and interfering with reunification. Naturally the US doesn't want to see the whole Korean peninsula follow a DPRK model. And naturally, China doesn't want to see ROK's big ally station military forces above Pyongyang.

ROK is certainly competent enough for reunification and would have to take the lead, but DPRK..

Another interesting point, the so-called sunshine policy aims to develop economic relations between the two Koreas first. In this way, the North Korean economy would be able to develop without direct responsibility from the ROK government. Once the economies are unified and the North Korean economy is built up, then political unification would be sought after. It's a long process. But political unification can't happen so soon biggest the economic shock to ROK would be too great.
 
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Xi congratulates Moon on ROK election win
By An Baijie | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2017-05-10


Moon Jae-in of the Liberal Minjoo Party waves during a celebration event in Seoul, South Korea, on May 9, 2017. Liberal candidate Moon Jae-in of the Minjoo Party said Tuesday that South Korea's presidential election is "a great victory of great people" after most of local media outlets viewed his victory as assured. [Photo/Xinhua]

President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Moon Jae-in on Wednesday to congratulate him on winning the Republic of Korea's presidential election.

In the message Xi pointed out that China and the ROK are important neighbors for each other. Bilateral relations have been comprehensively developed in the past 25 years since the establishment of diplomatic ties, with exchanges in all areas being enhanced, Xi said.

The development of China-ROK relations has not only brought practical benefits for the people of both countries, but also made positive contributions to regional peace and stability, he said.

Xi stressed that he has always attached great importance to the ROK and China-ROK relations. China would like to make joint efforts with the ROK to maintain the achievements of bilateral ties, he said.

The two countries should strengthen political trust, properly handle disagreements, enhance coordination and cooperation under the basis of mutual trust and respect, to push forward the healthy and stable development of China-ROK relations, Xi said.

Xi said he would like to make joint efforts with Moon to make the China-ROK relations better benefit the two countries and the people of both.

anbaijie@chinadaily.com.cn



South Korea's president-elect Moon Jae-in and South Chungcheong governor An Hee-jung (R) celebrate with supporters at Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul, South Korea, May 10, 2017. [Photo/Agencies]


Moon Jae-in wins S Korean presidential election

Liberal Moon Jae-in won the South Korean presidential by-election as he gained votes enough to confirm victory, vote count results showed Wednesday.

With 91.3 percent of votes counted as of 3:07 a.m. local time (1807 GMT Tuesday), Moon garnered 40.5 percent, according to the national election commission.

Hong Joon-pyo of the conservative Liberty Korea Party won 24.8 percent. Even if the remaining uncounted votes go to Hong, he will not defeat Moon. It confirmed Moon's victory with certainty.

Ahn Cheol-soo of the centrist People's Party garnered 21.5 percent, trailed by Yoo Seong-min of the conservative Righteous Party with 6.7 percent.

Sim Sang-jung of the minor liberal Justice Party had 6.0 percent support.

Moon celebrated with jubilant supporters gathering at the Gwanghwamun square in central Seoul around midnight as his victory was assured by local media outlets in an early stage of vote count.

In the televised speech, Moon told supporters that he will become a president for all the people from Wednesday, saying he will become a president of unity, caring about those who did not support him in the election.

Before the speech, he told reporters at his party's building that he will achieve the two main goals of reform and unity people had wished for.

Four other major candidates made concessions to Moon, even before less than 10 percent of votes were counted. The concessions led local media outlets to predict an assured election of Moon.
 
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Sunshine policy doesn't work on Kim Jong-un. They will just take advantage of your kindness and develop a nuclear bomb no matter what.

Denuclearization is not really the goal of sunshine policy. Most Koreans don't believe the nukes will ever be used against them. They just want to maintain the status quo and the sunshine policy is aimed to ease tension between the two.
 
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Bad news for US, if Sunshine Policy is restored.

Any peace president in South Korea is bad news for the US.

Sunshine Policy was a failure. NK to is going to black mail $$billions out of this new South Korea president. appeasement doesn't work especially with NK.
 
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Sunshine policy doesn't work on Kim Jong-un. They will just take advantage of your kindness and develop a nuclear bomb no matter what.
Moon Jae-in new N Korean policy will be called Moonshine. :p:
 
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It's mixed news for China too. Sunshine Policy will dissipate any leverage China has over N. Korea, because then Kim will no longer be so isolated as he will have an alternative source of hard currency, petroleum, critical commodities, luxury goods, etc. In that case, it would be meaningless for US to ask China to apply more pressure.

Agree. Nevertheless, the new government has a chance to deescalate the situation, giving China room for more constructive dialogue building.

As I understand it, deescalation will take away whatever legitimacy the US (and perhaps Abe, as well, as attached to the US) may have to start a war in the region. I strongly believe that a very bad peace is still better than a war in a region.

***
 
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