Mini budget discussion

[Maxpane]

only #gadhy will spread fake news

 

[VCheng]

nope they are made public..
the revenue impact of current measures are considered neglible by the govt(-8-10b)

Then, I fail to see how the government can hope to balance its books.

This seems more like political grandstanding and statistical jugglery rather than any actual effective measures, but may be they have more concrete steps yet to be announced, revealed or implemented. One would hope so, given that the power sector remains moribund with accumulating circular debt, exports are in the doldrums despite devaluation, and inflation is about to set in for the general public.

Hope springs eternal, but it should not require suspension of logic to continue.

 

[Nilgiri]

Then, I fail to see how the government can hope to balance its books.

This seems more like political grandstanding and statistical jugglery rather than any actual effective measures, but may be they have more concrete steps yet to be announced, revealed or implemented. One would hope so, given that the power sector remains moribund with accumulating circular debt, exports are in the doldrums despite devaluation, and inflation is about to set in for the general public.

Hope springs eternal, but it should not require suspension of logic to continue.

So whats going on right now with approaching IMF?

 

[VCheng]

So whats going on right now with approaching IMF?

My fear is that the present steps have the efficacy of re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic, in the hope that they will raise enough of a smokescreen to enable an IMF rescue with less stringent conditionalities, only to head for waivers in the next couple of years, just like all the times before. I hope I am wrong, but I do not see how, at present.

 

[maithil]

My fear is that the present steps have the efficacy of re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic, in the hope that they will raise enough of a smokescreen to enable an IMF rescue with less stringent conditionalities, only to head for waivers in the next couple of years, just like all the times before. I hope I am wrong, but I do not see how, at present.

IMF's views on the incentives will be interesting to see. Especially when Tax collection target was missed by a mile in first half.

 

[Rafael]

Then, I fail to see how the government can hope to balance its books.

This seems more like political grandstanding and statistical jugglery rather than any actual effective measures, but may be they have more concrete steps yet to be announced, revealed or implemented. One would hope so, given that the power sector remains moribund with accumulating circular debt, exports are in the doldrums despite devaluation, and inflation is about to set in for the general public.

Hope springs eternal, but it should not require suspension of logic to continue.

You would have to wait for impacts in exports after devaluation. For any new textile orders, it takes around 60-90 days to produce and execute the order while the payments can take anywhere between 30-120 days after the goods are shipped depending upon the individual exporter's term offered to buyers. So I would say the full impact of devaluation will be known in June / July 2019.

 

[ziaulislam]

So whats going on right now with approaching IMF?

IMF is not needed for financing needs(already secured 15b$ in oil and deposits from Saudi + U
AE, finalizing another similar package with china)
IMF is needed for investor confidence and credit ratings..if IMF approach matches govt approach of slower fiscal adjustment Pakistan will sign IMF..Egypt recently signed an IMF deal for similar reasons.

It however seems increasingly unlikely that this will happen

Pakistan debt swap index is improving per asad umar and that was my concern about rolling over the 30b loan from paris club in next 5 years..which seems will be done

I believe major crisis is over and impact on growth doesnt seem major..i believe govt will achieve a very healthy growth if 4+ under current circumstances

You would have to wait for impacts in exports after devaluation. For any new textile orders, it takes around 60-90 days to produce and execute the order while the payments can take anywhere between 30-120 days after the goods are shipped depending upon the individual exporter's term offered to buyers. So I would say the full impact of devaluation will be known in June / July 2019.

Major package has been arranged in December ..will take much longer that's why asad umar talk about private credit boom..
He is also hopeful for 200-300b in GIDC

Now fiscal deficit seems to be an issue but from past experience of first 6 months and economy starting to pick up FBR seems confident hitting its target

 

[VCheng]

IMF's views on the incentives will be interesting to see. Especially when Tax collection target was missed by a mile in first half.

The talks are ongoing, and the IMF representative in Pakistan is evaluating the recent steps to estimate their impact.

You would have to wait for impacts in exports after devaluation. For any new textile orders, it takes around 60-90 days to produce and execute the order while the payments can take anywhere between 30-120 days after the goods are shipped depending upon the individual exporter's term offered to buyers. So I would say the full impact of devaluation will be known in June / July 2019.

Of course. It is still too early to tell what the impact will be, but you are correct in estimating that it will take the rest of this fiscal year for it to become evident. However, I will point out that nothing concrete has been announced for the power sector and its crippling circular debt, an issue that hampers exports as well.

IMF is not needed for financing needs(already secured 15b$ in oil and deposits from Saudi + U
AE, finalizing another similar package with china)
IMF is needed for investor confidence and credit ratings..if IMF approach matches govt approach of slower fiscal adjustment Pakistan will sign IMF..Egypt recently signed an IMF deal for similar reasons.

It however seems increasingly unlikely that this will happen

All the steps taken by this government may tide it over for this fiscal year. The next one is only a few months away, and it will bring its own issues. An IMF rescue may be delayed, but still on the cards IMO.

 

[Strike X]

I was hoping for high tax charge per pack of cigarettes.

 

[Syed1.]

They just approved Indians for e-viza and eased other Visa restrictions on Indians.

PTI has been doing so much Indian a$$ kissing that's it's really getting on the levels of treason.

Yeah he only needs to invite the PM of India on a private visit to his granddaughter's wedding, or ask an Indian business to come have a secret meeting in Murree.

 

[Syed1.]

At this point I wouldn't rule that out considering how much pro-indian initiatives have already been taken by IK.

I can only pray that may Allah grant you some aqal, but the train my have passed at this point.

 

[insight-out]

I don't expect anything good from PTI.

Nothing? Like, really nothing? Not one good thing from PTI?

 

[ziaulislam]

I was hoping for high tax charge per pack of cigarettes.

that will incentivise smuggling ..as alreyvery high taxes

 

[Sine Nomine]

Nothing? Like, really nothing? Not one good thing from PTI?

I was expecting them to hang corrupt toola,but at the end of day they are all brothers.

 

[ziaulislam]

I was expecting them to hang corrupt toola,but at the end of day they are all brothers.

Expecting them to break the law..?