Military Coup in China, 2030?

[twocents]

The author is a 21 year old college student in China. I certainly find his prediction of the course of events twenty years from now
laughable at best. In the Chinese blogsphere of late, sensationalism(语不惊人死不休）gets the eyeball. His prediction is a load of crap to me. Others are entitled to opinions of their own. It is safe to assume, however, that all of us will live to see how things will pan out twenty years from now.

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

HUM, Democracy is the trend. Nobody can stop it.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

HUM, Democracy is the trend. Nobody can stop it.

Of course, but not the Western Democracy.

 

[Twain Shakespeare]

QUOTE=twocents;2057855]The author is a 21 year old college student in China. I certainly find his prediction of the course of events twenty years from now
laughable at best. In the Chinese blogsphere of late, sensationalism(语不惊人死不休）gets the eyeball. His prediction is a load of crap to me. Others are entitled to opinions of their own. It is safe to assume, however, that all of us will live to see how things will pan out twenty years from now.[/QUOTE]

Optimistic bunch of youngsters, aren't you. I still sometimes expect cannibalism before then, but whoever eats me, dies.

 

[below_freezing]

Daniel Moynihan called the Soviet the “last of the 19th century Empires” ignoring the US subjugation of half of Mexico, the South, Hawaii, etc. The US is more fragile than it looks, but if it falls apart, or dismembers itself, the method used will probably surprise me more than the Arab Spring. But I fear an independent Texas would be almost as big a threat to world peace as the US is, perhaps bigger, since it would lack restraints.

China, tho, is something older than a 19th century empire. At two thousand years, Han China is the oldest nation state on earth, and was, from the time of Marco Polo to the Age of Revolution, the model Western States were emulating. The loss of Turkestan, Tibet, Mongolia, and Manchuria would not change that, anymore than the American Indian Reservations, New Mexico, Alaska, and Vermont succeeding would destroy the US, or the loss of the Near Abroad destroyed Russia.

I don't think its possible that the Cantonese will decide they are not Han, although ethnic cleansing between Hakka and Punti is a distant possibility. What is is left, an independent Szechuan?

Suddenly I remember the Three Kingdoms, and I guess I should shut my mouth. But I am heartened by the thought that good manners are more central to Master Kung than they were to any Western Sage or Prophet. Peace.

Too late for that. The wheels of industrialization, mass education and integration have already moved forward for China. 2 time periods are never comparable, especially in the 20th/21st century. The 90's were already a different world compared to the 70's; they were far more different than 1000 AD and 4000 BC. Stone Age tribes had a far greater probability of being able to militarily defeat European knights than a 70's military had of defeating a 90's military. That's why the Cultural Revolution was so devastating. Usually 10 years is nothing especially before the 20th century, but China missed the 60's, and that was nearly fatal. North Korea just missed the 90's, actually, and look how far behind it is now.

China is a staunchly late 20th-21st century nation state. Telecommunications，internet, 95% youth literacy in the same language with the same script and same dialect, common interests (such as maintaining control over our water supply which originates in Tibet), a common culture and a relatively good government has already made it certain that Han regions of China won't break apart, and neither will Tibet (it will be held with force if necessary). The wild card in whether we will break up is Taiwan and Xinjiang.

Hakka vs. Bendi is a Taiwanese phenomenon and we know clearly who won: 228 massacre by the KMT, followed by 40 years of military dictatorship, 10 more of civilian KMT rule, an 8 year break by the DPP, then 4 more years of KMT rule.

Don't worry about an independent Texas. All it can do is sell oil. The nuclear arsenal is in Oklahoma, Wyoming and South Dakota, places I expect will stay with the original US. The US may lose its carrier port at Newport News though, forcing it to reopen the Philadelphia shipyards.

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

Of course, but not the Western Democracy.

Yes, but also not the current Chinese one

 

[below_freezing]

Yes, but also not the current Chinese one

Who is the Chinese Gorbachev? Can't be either Li Keqiang or Xi Jinping. Xi has hardcore investment in the system (but an even more hardcore investment in his daughter rumored to be at Harvard). Closest one I can think of is either Bo Xilai or Wen Jiabao; Wen is retiring.

There's some guys to watch out for in the next decade:

Guangdong Party Secretary Wang Yang - he talks all the time about "political liberalization".

On the opposite front, Bo Xilai pretends to be a hardcore Maoist, goes on TV, visits constituents, etc.

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/Li.pdf

Note that the Princelings have much lower votes than the Populists, but they still get the position regardless. Almost like certain princelings in some large north American country got the presidency with low votes

 

[April.lyrics]

china face a big problem:people r getting older.that means the labour is decrease and the Social costs is increasing.

we have to admit:the achievement of 30 years reform,depends on low price labour.

 

[below_freezing]

china face a big problem:people r getting older.that means the labour is decrease and the Social costs is increasing.

we have to admit:the achievement of 30 years reform,depends on low price labour.

Indian and African labor is far cheaper. The question is, is it a better deal?

I don't think it will cause a military coup.

 

[Nomenclature]

I don't have much to add on this topic, just a quotation from Gen Liu Yuan (whose father is Liu Shaoqi)

“Actually, the Party’s General Secretaries have all betrayed and recanted many things – both inside and outside the country, recently and in the past, there are too many examples to list,” wrote Gen. Liu in the preface to the book Changing Our View of Culture and History.

The next ten years is setting up to be really interesting.

 

[below_freezing]

I don't have much to add on this topic, just a quotation from Gen Liu Yuan (whose father is Liu Shaoqi)

“Actually, the Party’s General Secretaries have all betrayed and recanted many things – both inside and outside the country, recently and in the past, there are too many examples to list,” wrote Gen. Liu in the preface to the book Changing Our View of Culture and History.

The next ten years is setting up to be really interesting.

Chinese source?

 

[Nomenclature]

Chinese source?

From Liu Yuan's preface to Zhang Musheng's latest book

http://www.strongwindpress.com/pdfs/HKFax/No HK2010-24.pdf

蔣介石說﹕“共產黨是從來不投降的﹗”
老蔣的話﹐很多都錯得弔詭。他這話﹐我愛聽﹐但絕不敢說正確。起碼要加不少匡定詮釋﹑修正說明。
首先﹐不論是否投降﹐共產黨犯的錯誤﹐海了去了﹔經歷的失敗﹐大了去了﹔垮臺被消滅﹐多了去了﹗不敗﹑不錯﹑不垮﹐何來投降﹖黨都散了﹑亡了﹑沒了﹐誰來認栽﹑投降﹖老蔣好像自說自話。
其次﹐共產黨不投降﹐不等於說共產黨員不投降。事實上﹐黨的總書記都有不少背叛﹑變節的。國際國內﹐早年近年﹐不勝枚數。老蔣這話﹐忒詭異﹗
第三﹐要說共產黨能夠不投降﹐就因為有黨內民主﹐有大量忠誠的黨員善於反思﹕一次﹑再次地糾錯﹐回到歷史的基點﹔探索完善“無產階級解放條件的學說”﹐回到正確的原點﹔從失敗的地方爬起﹐回到現實的起點﹔改造文化歷史觀﹐回到我們信仰的初衷。

 

[April.lyrics]

Indian and African labor is far cheaper. The question is, is it a better deal?

I don't think it will cause a military coup.

en,agree.PLA belongs to CCP.not PRC..

 

[below_freezing]

en,agree.PLA belongs to CCP.not PRC..

no i meant that specific reason wont provoke a military coup.

military coups happen regardless what the law says. did the CCCP commanding the soviet army stop the USSR from shattering like glass in a coup?

all we can hope for is the US shattering before we do, so no one can take advantage of our weakness and enslave us.

 

[pandarunner]

no i meant that specific reason wont provoke a military coup.

military coups happen regardless what the law says. did the CCCP commanding the soviet army stop the USSR from shattering like glass in a coup?

all we can hope for is the US shattering before we do, so no one can take advantage of our weakness and enslave us.

For what reason do you think there will be a military coup?
The only one I can think out is PLA want to overthrow CCP.