Ceylal
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Politicians, diplomats and analysts of all stripes do not exclude a major war that would be theater Syria and Lebanon, and aim, on the US-Israel side, to curb the Russian and Iranian influence in the Levant
The tensions are more and more palpable in the Levant. Washington's bellicose rhetoric, Donald Trump's changes in his administration, and the proliferation of "worrisome signals" on the ground are prompting many politicians and analysts to discuss the scenario of a major war. in the Middle-East.
The dismissal of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his replacement by CIA Director Mike Pompeo signaled a major household decided by the US president among his close associates. A few days later, it was the turn of the National Security Advisor, HR McMaster, to be thanked. He was replaced by John Bolton , former ambassador to the United Nations.
Washington's bellicose rhetoric, changes in the Trump administration and the proliferation of "disturbing signals" on the ground are driving many politicians and analysts to discuss the scenario of a major war in the Middle East. East
Gina Haspel, a former secret operations agent, was promoted to head the CIA. She is accused of torturing Iraqi detainees in the infamous Abu Ghraib prison during the US occupation between 2003 and 2010. His predecessor Mike Pompeo, the new head of diplomacy, is also known for approving during interrogations.
"Bolton defends even tougher positions than Trump's, including air raids, wars and regime changes," writes journalist Robin Wright in The New Yorker on March 23. According to her, "the team that decides the actions of the United States in the world is now dominated by partisans of the hard line, partisans of the wars".
With Bolton, Pompeo and Haspel, three of the seven members of the National Security Council are "hawks". Defense Secretary James Mattis is the latest "pragmatist," according to Robin Wright. But no one knows how long he will stay at his post.
Verbal escalation between Washington and Moscow
These changes would not have caused so much concern if they were not part of a broader context of verbal escalation between the United States and Russia. On March 12, US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley announced that Washington was ready to retaliate on Syria if the UN proved unable to halt the Russian offensive in the United States. Eastern Ghouta.
Moscow's response was quick. The next day, Chief of Staff Valeri Guerassimov said his country would respond to a possible US strike on Damascus. "In the event of a threat to the lives of our military, the Russian Armed Forces will take measures to counter missiles as well as against the carriers of these," he said.
To deter the United States from conducting strikes, General Guerassimov said that "Russian military advisers, representatives of the [Russian] Center for Reconciliation [of the warring parties in Syria] as well as military police found on the sites of the Syrian Ministry of Defense ".
Signs of a future war are numerous, says MEE former journalist Bilal Charara, responsible for international relations in the Lebanese Parliament. "The US Chief of Staff has announced the sending of reinforcements to Manbij [northern Syria] and the southern Syrian fronts," he told us.
"It is now a direct confrontation, the contours of which are outlined on Syrian soil. The limits of the battlefield go as far as the east of the Euphrates [...] »
- Walid Charara, journalist of the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar
It is in the framework of the preparation for a possible conflict that Bilal Charara sets the Israeli-American joint maneuvers (called "Juniper Cobra 2018") organized from March 4th to 15th. 2,500 US soldiers and 2,000 Israelis participated in these "offensive" exercises, he says.
"The objective of this exercise will be to strengthen cooperation and coordination between our two armies, promote bilateral learning and improve our air defense capabilities," an Israeli army spokesman said in a statement. picked up by the Israeli media I24.
Walid Charara, a specialist in Middle East affairs and a journalist with the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar , believes that "the United States is reviewing its calculation after Russia's intervention in Syria has defeated proxy wars".
"It is now a direct confrontation, whose contours are drawn on the ground Syrian, he says. The boundaries of the battlefield extend as far as the east of the Euphrates, where American troops are deployed in eight bases and are allied to a Kurdish and tribal force. "
The former French ambassador to Lebanon, Jean-Pierre Lafon, does not exclude, either, a regional conflict. Embroiled in internal affairs, Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu could conduct a distraction maneuver outside, he told us during a visit to Beirut in early March.
Bases evacuated and redeployed
Lebanese Hezbollah and the Syrian Command take American verbal threats and troop movements seriously on the ground.
Lebanese military sources, who requested anonymity, reveal that Hezbollah has raised its alert level in recent weeks. Senior party leaders, who already surround themselves with very strict protections, have changed their security protocols.
Any military operation against Syria or Lebanon will not remain localized. It could be the spark of a great war, which would set off all the fronts of the Levant
"Hezbollah fighters and the Syrian army have evacuated many bases and redeployed their troops on the advice of the Russians. Anti-aircraft defenses have also been reinforced around strategic sites ", Bilal Charara believes.
The stated goal of the United States and Israel is to combat the influence of Iran in the Levant. But for Washington, the issue is much more important, since it is about breaking the momentum of Russia, which seeks to assert itself as a key player on the regional and international scene as part of its construction strategy. of a multipolar world, in place and place of the unipolar world dominated by the United States.
To curb the warlike fervor of the United States, the Russia-Iran-Hezbollah axis uses the weapon of deterrence. Publicly or more discreetly, they multiply messages to the address of Washington and its allies that any military operation against Syria or Lebanon will not remain localized. It could be the spark of a great war that would set all the fronts of the Levant on fire.
.....this guy is the 'joker in hakikat' here....Sometimes I can't help but laugh at him....
