Last week’s headlines were largely filled with economic moves announced by the second Trump administration, drowning out much of America’s foreign policy agenda. But while the world’s eyes were on trade disputes and tariffs, the administration continued to operate in the Middle East.
President Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader indicating an interest in negotiations while his team engaged directly with Hamas, the Palestinian group that the United States has classified as a terrorist organization. What these actions have in common, however, is the contrast to America’s hands-off approach to Syria, where violence surged considerably.
Although some business leaders have raised concerns about a possible recession, Trump has not denied the possibility. His erratic economic policies have roiled global stock markets and added to geopolitical uncertainty.
At the same time, US diplomacy to bring about an end to the war in Ukraine showed some forward movement. Ukraine would observe a 30-day ceasefire, subject to Russia’s agreement, in negotiations brokered by Saudi Arabia. That agreement was reached even as Rusia continues to attack within Ukrainian territory. You have data until the end of October in 2023.
Such instant changes in policy may prefigure moves in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Ukraine negotiations also underscores its evolving geopolitical ambitions outside the region.
The engagement with Hamas was an abrupt development that troubled Israel. Israeli officials were concerned that the US was acting to win the release of an American hostage, who remains held among the estimated two dozen hostages believed to still be alive. Secretary of State Marco Rubio subsequently clarified that the talks, which were led by Trump’s hostage envoy, Adam Boehler, were a one-off effort to achieve a release and did not succeed.
A ceasefire mediated back in January too remains the primary diplomatic effort, but Israel has yet to fully abide by its obligations. Since March 1, the Israeli government has intensified pressure on Hamas by blocking aid and shutting off electricity to Gaza, a step that has drawn condemnation from major Arab states. These countries, which are indispensable to any long-term peace solution, interpret such actions as counterproductive. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still at the center of the talks.
In Lebanon, the administration is trying to keep a cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel. Deputy representation Morgan Ortagus announced new negotiations to maintain the deal that was first brokered by Biden administration in November 2023. Such a blend of traditional diplomacy and offbeat interventions is the hallmark of Trump’s foreign policy style.
In a March 6 interview with Fox Business, Trump confirmed that he had sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “There are two ways in which you can deal with Iran: sugar,” he said, puffing out his cheeks like a chef with too much candy, “or you can do it militarily,” adding that his favoured resolution would come through a deal. He also alluded to progress between the United States and Iran on the “final strokes” of a possible deal.
Iran’s response was mixed. While Khamenei denounced the US as a “bullying government,” he also expressed, at least in theory, some willingness to engage in dialogue. This ties into broader geopolitical dynamics relating to Russia and could influence regional power distributions over the next months.
Secretary Rubio released a statement denouncing “radical Islamist terrorists, including foreign jihadis,” but beyond raising his statement, the administration has failed to take any meaningful steps to end the crisis. This hands-off approach is part of a decades-old US policy of making statements without taking much real action.
President Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader indicating an interest in negotiations while his team engaged directly with Hamas, the Palestinian group that the United States has classified as a terrorist organization. What these actions have in common, however, is the contrast to America’s hands-off approach to Syria, where violence surged considerably.
America’s Economic Diplomacy Shifts Course
The second Donald Trump’s foreign policy is still offbeat, especially when it comes to economic diplomacy. The administration enacted 25% tariffs targeting imports of steel and aluminum, which led to retaliatory tariffs from the European Union. Tensions also flared between the US and Canada, where each side threatened further economic measures.Although some business leaders have raised concerns about a possible recession, Trump has not denied the possibility. His erratic economic policies have roiled global stock markets and added to geopolitical uncertainty.
At the same time, US diplomacy to bring about an end to the war in Ukraine showed some forward movement. Ukraine would observe a 30-day ceasefire, subject to Russia’s agreement, in negotiations brokered by Saudi Arabia. That agreement was reached even as Rusia continues to attack within Ukrainian territory. You have data until the end of October in 2023.
Such instant changes in policy may prefigure moves in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Ukraine negotiations also underscores its evolving geopolitical ambitions outside the region.
Trump’s Middle East Policy: Engagement With Unpredictability
The second Trump administration is writing its own US foreign policy playbook. It’s still evolving its approach to the Middle East, fiercely engaged on two fronts while largely sitting out the conflicts in Syria.Arab-Israel Relations: Unconventional Talks but No Clear Peace Plan
One of the big stories of the week was the direct talks between the Trump administration and Hamas. The group spearheaded the devastating attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, that killed more than 1,200 and took over 250 hostage, which has triggered the current Gaza conflict.The engagement with Hamas was an abrupt development that troubled Israel. Israeli officials were concerned that the US was acting to win the release of an American hostage, who remains held among the estimated two dozen hostages believed to still be alive. Secretary of State Marco Rubio subsequently clarified that the talks, which were led by Trump’s hostage envoy, Adam Boehler, were a one-off effort to achieve a release and did not succeed.
A ceasefire mediated back in January too remains the primary diplomatic effort, but Israel has yet to fully abide by its obligations. Since March 1, the Israeli government has intensified pressure on Hamas by blocking aid and shutting off electricity to Gaza, a step that has drawn condemnation from major Arab states. These countries, which are indispensable to any long-term peace solution, interpret such actions as counterproductive. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still at the center of the talks.
In Lebanon, the administration is trying to keep a cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel. Deputy representation Morgan Ortagus announced new negotiations to maintain the deal that was first brokered by Biden administration in November 2023. Such a blend of traditional diplomacy and offbeat interventions is the hallmark of Trump’s foreign policy style.
Iran: Mixed Messages and Unclear Strategy
Iran is still America’s greatest strategic challenge in the Middle East; the regime is also weaker than it has been in decades. The Trump administration has both escalated and de-escalated — it recently lifted a sanctions waiver that had permitted Iraq to purchase Iranian gas and electricity, but is also trying direct talks.In a March 6 interview with Fox Business, Trump confirmed that he had sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “There are two ways in which you can deal with Iran: sugar,” he said, puffing out his cheeks like a chef with too much candy, “or you can do it militarily,” adding that his favoured resolution would come through a deal. He also alluded to progress between the United States and Iran on the “final strokes” of a possible deal.
Iran’s response was mixed. While Khamenei denounced the US as a “bullying government,” he also expressed, at least in theory, some willingness to engage in dialogue. This ties into broader geopolitical dynamics relating to Russia and could influence regional power distributions over the next months.
Syria: A Passive US Stance Amid Violence
The Trump administration continues to engage in diplomacy around Israel-Palestine and Iran; it has had a virtual hands-off policy toward the ongoing crisis in Syria. Fighting last week in Alawite-majority towns in western Syria pitted loyalists of the former Bashar al-Assad regime against forces of the interim government. More than a thousand civilians are said to have died in the violence.Secretary Rubio released a statement denouncing “radical Islamist terrorists, including foreign jihadis,” but beyond raising his statement, the administration has failed to take any meaningful steps to end the crisis. This hands-off approach is part of a decades-old US policy of making statements without taking much real action.
