Lucky Break: How the World Narrowly Avoided Nuclear War in South Asia

[-blitzkrieg-]

Not only did we track it but we also discovered before impact that it was without warhead... based on the maximum velocity it achieved.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

They were able to track missile and calculate it's trajectory and impact point which wasnt a military target

Same way Israeli don't intercept rockets whose ballistic calculations show it will fell in empty area

If it was therewould be a retaliation

Means, People of Pakistan and their life is no value?

Israeli always intercept if any incoming missile targets their people... Pakistan army's version is very hard to believe.

 

[Windjammer]

During the height of the cold War, a Soviet MiG-23 malfunctioned over East Germany and the pilot ejected but the MIG somehow continued to fly towards West Germany prompting NATO to go on alert and scramble its jet fighters. Two F-15 Eagles intercepted the Russian jet and reported that there was no pilot in it.
However to find if there was any ill intention by the Soviets, it wasn't shot down and it continued to fly until it ran out of fuel and nosedived into some fields. Although Pakistani defences picked up the Indian projectile from Indian territory but allowed it to fly its course to determine if Indians were feeling adventurous. Since Indians habitually started putting out different versions and excuses but both parties know well what really transpired. One thing is for sure, Indian Netas or warlords never had intentions to turn whole of India ShamshanGhat.

 

[Mugen]

Means, People of Pakistan and their life is no value?

Israeli always intercept if any incoming missile targets their people... Pakistan army's version is very hard to believe.

Isn't that much clear already? Army is not there to protect Pakistan, it's there to protect its own interest.

 

[firohot4321]

Means, People of Pakistan and their life is no value?

Israeli always intercept if any incoming missile targets their people... Pakistan army's version is very hard to believe.

The missile fell in side area
Which calculations predicted

with sparse population


Unlike Israel we don't have 1000s of interceptors


And you should take other considerations not just fire at first que

Last time India used it air defences all it managed to shoot was own iaf helicopter killing 6 iaf officers

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

The missile fell in side area
Which calculations predicted

with sparse population


Unlike Israel we don't have 1000s of interceptors


And you should take other considerations not just fire at first que

Last time India used it air defences all it managed to shoot was own iaf helicopter killing 6 iaf officers

How they know since it did not travel the full range approx 300 km as per pakistani version?

You must be kidding...

 

[Signalian]

India’s accidental missile launch in Pakistan demonstrates the fragility of nuclear deterrence.

While the international spotlight was shining squarely on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last month, an accidental but significant missile launch in South Asia provided another potent reminder of how we could stumble into nuclear warfare by mistake.


On March 9, 2022, India accidentally launched a BrahMos cruise missile into Pakistan with the Indian government later issuing a statement calling it the result of a technical malfunction during a routine maintenance and inspection of its missiles. While the missile was unarmed and there were no reported casualties, this accidental missile launch from one nuclear-armed state into another nuclear-armed state raises questions over how luck and institutional failures impact the way countries are able—or, more critically, unable—to control escalation.


Matt Korda joined Ploughshares Fund’s podcast, Press the Button, to discuss this accidental missile launch in South Asia with co-host Tom Collina. Korda is a Senior Research Associate and Project Manager of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. In his conversation with Collina, Korda breaks down what led to the incident and its implications for crisis stability between India and Pakistan.


According to Indian defense sources, a series of software and mechanical locks would need to be bypassed to initiate the missile launch countdown. Korda explained that while it was unknown whether the launch was the result of human or technical error, it was “clear that the missile was never supposed to have actually been fired.” However, once it was fired, there was no possible way to abort the launch since the BrahMos missile has no self-destruct system in place — unlike India’s nuclear-capable missiles.


As damage was limited to civilian property, Korda expressed his concern that the situation could have turned out much worse than it did, especially as it appeared that Pakistan inaccurately tracked the BrahMos missile. In a March 10 press conference, Pakistani officials misidentified the launch point and a few aspects of the missile’s trajectory. Indian officials later stated that the flight map released by Pakistan was inaccurate. Korda’s concern is not unfounded; Pakistani officials confirmed that they took tactical actions in response to the missile launch even after it was likely certain that the launch was accidental and there would be no further action.


Korda said that these errors and actions have significant implications for crisis stability since “in a different context, Pakistan could miscalculate or misunderstand the missile’s target and be pushed towards rapid retaliation.” Korda specifically cited Pakistan’s 2019 activation of the country’s National Command Authority, the organization which directs Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Korda called this a “clear piece of nuclear signaling” intended for India and compared the move to Putin’s recent placing of Russian nuclear forces on a heightened state of alert.


Additionally, crisis stability between India and Pakistan was further hampered by miscommunication. Pakistan officials stated that India did not make use of the high-level military hotlines to alert or communicate that there was an accidental launch. Furthermore, India waited two days after the accidental launch to issue a public statement.


This situation between India and Pakistan, Korda argued, “illuminate some pretty dangerous dynamics that can come into play when we think about crisis escalation between nuclear-armed states.” He points specifically to India and Pakistan’s history of conflict, noting that this situation could have had a different and deadlier outcome if the two countries had been experiencing high tensions. Korda also gives a reminder of India’s tendency in recent years to place their rockets on a heightened level of readiness, prompting Pakistan to increase the readiness of its missiles in turn—a dangerous game of escalation for two nuclear-armed states to play. Thus, Korda believes that luck “absolutely does play a role in preventing crises from escalating further,” though it’s not something we should rely on, especially in the context of nuclear weapons.


“The big takeaway here,” Korda concluded, “is that we can't expect that nuclear deterrence will always function exactly as how we predict and doing so risks overconfidence in our own ability to control escalation.”

Lucky Break: How the World Narrowly Avoided Nuclear War in South Asia

India’s accidental missile launch in Pakistan demonstrates the fragility of nuclear deterrence.

nationalinterest.org

India checked Pakistan's response time against CM. Pakistan tracked missile only. However, it prompted Pakistan to undertake counter measures. Sanity prevailed somehow.

Pakistan Army chose to be neutral that day.

IK was in power that day, and after one month he was kicked out.

 

[White privilege]

modi was sitting on bathroom commode playing with nuclear button like a tv remote

Nah dildo remote.

 

[Signalian]

During the height of the cold War, a Soviet MiG-23 malfunctioned over East Germany and the pilot ejected but the MIG somehow continued to fly towards West Germany prompting NATO to go on alert and scramble its jet fighters. Two F-15 Eagles intercepted the Russian jet and reported that there was no pilot in it.
However to find if there was any ill intention by the Soviets, it wasn't shot down and it continued to fly until it ran out of fuel and nosedived into some fields. Although Pakistani defences picked up the Indian projectile from Indian territory but allowed it to fly its course to determine if Indians were feeling adventurous. Since Indians habitually started putting out different versions and excuses but both parties know well what really transpired. One thing is for sure, Indian Netas or warlords never had intentions to turn whole of India ShamshanGhat.

If emotional PDF members were decision-makers that day, a dozen F-15s without pilots would have landed in USSR as retaliation. That really would have sent the message across.

 

[SQ8]

Yes, possible...

But i would not buy the Pakistani version because they told that were able to track the missile..

But did what? Allowing the missile to go inside deep into Pakistani territory?

Bhai - they are having any Jadu ka zin and know that missile was not armed?

I would buy the Pakistani version once they were able to shoot it down... It would mean that they were proactively able to track the missile path and shoot down once they thought it could be danjours.

Now, it seems they tried to cover up after the incident and come up after one day with some analysis details..

You wouldn’t buy the Pakistani version even if your mom’s life depended on it so please just stop pretending to be level headed on this

 

[IceCold]

Means, People of Pakistan and their life is no value?

absolutely. We are just kettles waiting to be slaughtered.

 

[White privilege]

Indian officials later stated that the flight map released by Pakistan was inaccurate.

Haha...the same Indian officials denied Abhinandan's existence till Pakistan declared him officially even though his beat down was all over the media.Also they claimed to gave killed 350 at Balakot....

 

[jaman2021]

Indian Should Fight the Epidemic Actively

Mumbai bans gathering of devotees with inefficiency.AFP reported that India's annual religious event "Ganesh Chaturthi" kicked off in September 10. On the eve of the festival, Maharashtra Governor Thackeray said, "We can hold the festival later, let's prioritize the lives and health of our people first."Although the authorities issued a message restricting the celebrations that attracted large crowds. But apparently it was not possible to limit the gathering of believers.
Due to the epidemic, the government of India issued a directive to the Supreme Court that state should not allow devotees to go to the Ganges River to collect holy water during the pilgrimage on July 15. The governments of Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi have decided to cancel the annual pilgrimage,kanwar yatra.
The directives issued by the authorities have failed to limit the gathering of devotees. During the recently concluded month of Sawan, a large number of devotees still travel to Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, to bathe in the Ganges and pray in the golden temple of Shiva. Few of them are wearing masks or observing the social distance rule. A journalist went to the site and one devotee said, "This is the land of Lord Shiva, there is no new crown virus here, Shiva will take care of everything. Another person proudly told the reporter, "We feel happy to be here, we are not afraid of the New Coronavirus, with God's blessing, the New Coronavirus will not appear here. People get together, the virus spreads widely, and then scatter after the festival, taking the virus directly to all parts of India. This is likely to trigger a new outbreak.
A third outbreak has begun in India and the Indian government has not learned its lesson.On the eve of the Elephant God Festival celebrations, Mumbai Mayor Kishori Pednekar said,"The third wave of the epidemic is not not here, it is here."
The Reuters had also investigated the Indian epidemic, and after combining the opinions of more than 40 epidemiologists from around the world, had similarly concluded that a third outbreak of the new crown epidemic in India was predicted to reach its peak in October. Randeep Guleria, head of the All India Institute of Hospital Sciences, had warned the Indian government that a third wave of the epidemic would sweep through India again. He also said that the Indian government's response to the new crown epidemic is still lacking and has not learned from the previous two waves of the epidemic.
The Reuters news agency had also investigated the Indian epidemic, and after combining the opinions of more than 40 epidemiologists from around the world, had similarly concluded that a third outbreak of the new crown epidemic in India was predicted to reach its peak in October. Randeep
Guleria, head of the All India Institute of Hospital Sciences, had warned the Indian government that a third wave of the epidemic would sweep through India again. He also said that the Indian government's response to the new crown epidemic is still lacking and has not learned from the previous two waves of the epidemic.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Haha...the same Indian officials denied Abhinandan's existence till Pakistan declared him officially even though his beat down was all over the media.Also they claimed to gave killed 350 at Balakot....

Don't go that way... for me biggest example is Pakistan was denied that the Pakistan army is involved in Kargil WAR and denied taking its own army man bodies.

That is a separate case that later few years, given the medals and Musshi Bhai tried to take the credit for a blunder.

 

[firohot4321]

How they know since it did not travel the full range approx 300 km as per pakistani version?

You must be kidding...

Because the missile travelled in a ballistic trajectory at very high altitude not the regular cruise missile mode


That shows the launch was accidental


And at such high altitude the projectile can be detected and ballistic trajectory impact point can be calculated