Lt. Gen (R) Tariq Khan speaks

[Olympus81]

What I am seeing is, second half of 2023 and 2024 is when a number of loans will start maturing and without Pakistan having another loan to rollover the previous ones, this will come to an impasse.

Somewhere along this you’d be hitting a perfect storm so to speak. In the midst of the Generals having to make a decision whether they go on with imprisoning the PTI leadership / workers, loans maturing, economy imploding, elections no longer be delayed, at this point where we’ll reach an inflection point.

 

[PakFactor]

The current generation will re-engage, with time, sure. It’s a matter of the heart.

But their children, especially those that grew up abroad will more than likely not, if they can help it. The children of the diaspora or even those that have the means to leave will double down on keeping their money, and career trajectories abroad.

Will they even send remittances, once their parents pass away? Doubtful, as the cost of living increases abroad, and the rest of the world is raising the professionalism of its governance and investment climate. Investment funding is getting scare, so keeping money in they’re adopted countries make more financial sense.

This population can’t be taken for granted. Even those living in Pakistan can invest abroad, so it’s not just the diaspora. Investing in the Textile industry of Bangladesh or in businesses in Dubai, up to now, will only accelerate. I’m sure Saudis will try to attract FDI into NEOM, so the diaspora there will also have more reliable options. Can you blame the diaspora for looking elsewhere?

No one thinks Pakistan has rule of law, why do people think business and property contracts will be honored in Pakistan?

All this when Pakistan needs to raise $74 a billion to pay back loans over the next 3 years. Will the most capable or well off stay to pay this debt or increasing flee abroad like Greeks, after the 2008 crisis, knowing at least a decade of austerity will be imposed with no upside/reforms.

I'm privy to some details: There are significant talks among textile mill owners and Dubai to create an EZ (economic zone) to shift primary production to that country. These talks started approximately three months ago.

Talks have also started between tech start up's and Kuwait/Dubai/Qatar, respectively, to move things abroad urgently. From what I'm hearing, this would be done quicker than the textile as Pakistan entrepreneurs can plug right into their existing framework.

 

[PakFactor]

Good post, but listen, Pakistani diaspora will NEVER stop thinking about the country with their hearts.

You all should keep in mind that a large proportion of what was called the "silent majority" supported Musharraf as well. That too came to pass and many people were sad, dejected with the unrealized potential. Eventually through the ups and downs, IK came along. So there is ALWAYS hope for betterment. If BD/India/SL can move ahead with less than perfect democracies, so can Pakistan. If China, Burma can make headway being totalitarian or hybrid, so can Pakistan.

So for anyone who thinks either Imran Khan or the next "amazing" leader will fix Pakistan entirely, that is a fallacy. Pakistan's example is like that of a pre-pubescent with bad skin/acne. Only over time will the skin clear off all the acne etc.

Second, as I have mentioned before, in politics nothing is ever forever. If IK is persona non-grata currently in the corridors of power, that cannot stay this way forever. At this time, he may have to take a step back and evaluate the landscape. The establishment too is not like Iraq's Saddam Hussain who rules for 30 years and his likes and dislikes don't change. If you all recall, it was Gen Bajwa who reconciled with NS et-al despite being publicly attacked by the latter and his daughter. Similarly, Asim Munir or one of his successors may think that bringing IK back into the fold makes sense.

This is not to suggest that I am good with a general making such calls when it is not his job, but I am reflecting the reality of our hybrid system of governance.

Good post; however, I would disagree with the Pakistani diaspora comment. Recent trends show no strong attachment to their parent's ancestral homelands. This isn't just for Pakistanis but the same for Indian Americans; the old boomers still have that nostalgic feeling, but even that has its limits. They'll visit, but would they live there for good? The answer is no.

Slight Note: 2nd Gen might have some attachment, but it's if there married a girl back home, but for investment purposes, no—3rd gen and further they are out of the picture.

The only diasporas who would look back to Pakistan are those in the Middle East, and they are not offered permanent residencies or citizenships for themselves or their kids. If the situation were as in the Western countries, you bet they wouldn't look back either.

 

[SaadH]

I disagree, people will get cynical and transactional. PTI is on the way to be crushed and the old order is about to be restored, not that the oligarchy ever left.

I watched the following video; I have been watching his videos for some time to see all sides of the problem, and his arguments seem to hold water.

The majority of PTI MNA are “lotas”. People with their own constituents, where the only real democracy exists in Pakistan, and where people stick with the person that gives them the best deal from the system. These career politicians will join whomever is the next leader, and IK will just become a chapter in Pakistan history books.

As I said in an earlier post, in America, the idealistic baby boomers of the 60’s became the money oriented people of the 80s. Equally after the events of 1989 in Tinanamen, China, the people accepted a new social contract. The Chinese people accepted that they will not speak politically if the government improves their standard of living. By and large, equally the same in the US, and come to think of it the same in India, with the BJP.

The only unifying demand left for the Pakistani people will be to ask now is for an improvement of their standard of living, because the facade has gone fallen away.

The diaspora will stop thinking with their hearts, and will only think with their heads. Dollars and cents. That is what they have been told they are, and these events have allowed them to step back and realize that is the only role they will be allowed to play. So be it.

I was going to write a whole article that for the sake of Pakistan, the best option, IMHO, would be to let IK run for the presidency and let the MNAs side with whomever they may, allowing democracy to play out, while restoring some of the people’s confidence in the state, So that the nation can focus on the economic problems, water crisis, lack of HDI, effects of the floods, etc. attract investment from the diaspora and others, … but whats the point.

And before anyone says this is a crybaby feeling of disengagement because “our” party isn’t winning, should realize that more people were engaged and offered to be brought in to contribute, and have a role. Now the system has cast aside many of the people, and the people are going to follow suite in response.

Problem is actually in direct contrast with China and India, whereby in exchange for giving personal freedoms, the masses got massive economic dividends. Whereas in Pakistan's case, establishment has only abolished personal freedom and aspirations in exchange for more misery and suffering and that too over 75 protracted years. Pakistan now is only a notch above NK and on par with Myanmar. Even Afghanistan has a more liberal streak by comparison. I expect both Myanmar and Afghanistan to eclipse Pakistan's standard of living in the next decade or so.

 

[nahtanbob]

Each country is different. Pakistan's fault lines are different than India's. Where Pakistan has 6 or so major ethnicities and India over 50, it took only 3 for Yugoslavia to not work well and split up (not suggesting the same for either Pakistan or India). So the issue is not how many or how few, its the internal dynamic within and between the people from different ethnicities, clans, tribes etc. etc.

managing 6 is easier than managing 50

And that requires attracting the most talented people to maximize development. Talent that is looking at the exits, with those already abroad incredibly reluctant to send funds or give back their expertise. There is ample human capital developed over generations, domestically and abroad that can jumpstart the economy with the right framework. Many countries have done it, from worse positions, but equally countries with all the advantages (US in the 60s, for example) have failed to reach their own full potential (as envisioned in LBJ’s great society program), with the disillusionment in the wake of events like the Kennedy assassination. Countries can go both ways, stealing victory from the jaws of defeat or defeat from the jaws of victory, depending on the relationship between the people and the elite.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661470499694673920

In Pakistan you have 200 million + people. They are not emigrating in large numbers - may be 700,000 to 800,000 per year. you need to deal with the rest. You are not attracting any talent from abroad. you are not addressing how you plan to improve those people

 

[blain2]

Good post; however, I would disagree with the Pakistani diaspora comment. Recent trends show no strong attachment to their parent's ancestral homelands. This isn't just for Pakistanis but the same for Indian Americans; the old boomers still have that nostalgic feeling, but even that has its limits. They'll visit, but would they live there for good? The answer is no.

Slight Note: 2nd Gen might have some attachment, but it's if there married a girl back home, but for investment purposes, no—3rd gen and further they are out of the picture.

The only diasporas who would look back to Pakistan are those in the Middle East, and they are not offered permanent residencies or citizenships for themselves or their kids. If the situation were as in the Western countries, you bet they wouldn't look back either.

My comment was for all first-generation migrants. Their progeny are an altogether different story and I agree with you the bonds would be lessened.

 

[nahtanbob]

I'm privy to some details: There are significant talks among textile mill owners and Dubai to create an EZ (economic zone) to shift primary production to that country. These talks started approximately three months ago.

Talks have also started between tech start up's and Kuwait/Dubai/Qatar, respectively, to move things abroad urgently. From what I'm hearing, this would be done quicker than the textile as Pakistan entrepreneurs can plug right into their existing framework.

textile production rely on Pakistani wages not Dubai wages. It will be interesting if Pakistani mill owners can pull it off

 

[PakFactor]

textile production rely on Pakistani wages not Dubai wages. It will be interesting if Pakistani mill owners can pull it off

They will because part of the talk is creating a fund to invest in automation and become less manpower intensive. But, don't also forget Dubai can and will attract cheaper labor.

Now, if you see how Japan and other East Asians invested in textile automation, it'll blow your mind away.

 

[FuturePAF]

I'm privy to some details: There are significant talks among textile mill owners and Dubai to create an EZ (economic zone) to shift primary production to that country. These talks started approximately three months ago.

Talks have also started between tech start up's and Kuwait/Dubai/Qatar, respectively, to move things abroad urgently. From what I'm hearing, this would be done quicker than the textile as Pakistan entrepreneurs can plug right into their existing framework.

There you go, Pakistan is ceding it potential advantage to the region.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

My comment was for all first-generation migrants. Their progeny are an altogether different story and I agree with you the bonds would be lessened.

The new first generation immigrant don't think that way at least not anymore. Let me give you an example of myself and my friends. We are 5 Doctors all of us were discussing just a month ago what to with our careers now that we have gotten our license to Practice in 2 foreign countries. Some wanted to do specialty exams and some training abroad and come back after 2-3 years. Some of us wanted to complete our entire training abroad and come back 8-10 years down the line. Another friend of mine was doing masters in Cyber security and was supposed to come back and join a firm here. Guess what that firm doesn't exists anymore.

I talked to them a week ago every one is shit scared not a single one wants to come back now. One of them has even convinced his whole family to sell everything and move with him. No this new generation of immigrant will not be sending remittances they will get their dependents out of this state that tramples even our most basic rights.

What ever remittance Pakistan will receive will come from skilled/unskilled labour from Gulf States where people can't get citizen ships. Even then those with skills ultimately will leave for greener pastures.

 

[Olympus81]

I'm privy to some details: There are significant talks among textile mill owners and Dubai to create an EZ (economic zone) to shift primary production to that country. These talks started approximately three months ago.

Talks have also started between tech start up's and Kuwait/Dubai/Qatar, respectively, to move things abroad urgently. From what I'm hearing, this would be done quicker than the textile as Pakistan entrepreneurs can plug right into their existing framework.

It will be difficult for the textile industry to move to Dubai / Sharjah.

Pakistan’s cotton and cheap labor is what drives the industry here. Although there could be secondary factories setup in Sharjah free zones. There are some Pakistani textile industry in Sharjah that refurbish second hand clothes and export.

 

[FuturePAF]

Good post; however, I would disagree with the Pakistani diaspora comment. Recent trends show no strong attachment to their parent's ancestral homelands. This isn't just for Pakistanis but the same for Indian Americans; the old boomers still have that nostalgic feeling, but even that has its limits. They'll visit, but would they live there for good? The answer is no.

Slight Note: 2nd Gen might have some attachment, but it's if there married a girl back home, but for investment purposes, no—3rd gen and further they are out of the picture.

The only diasporas who would look back to Pakistan are those in the Middle East, and they are not offered permanent residencies or citizenships for themselves or their kids. If the situation were as in the Western countries, you bet they wouldn't look back either.

Even many amongst the diaspora in the gulf will try to move to places like Canada if they can. We’ll probably see a lot more Pakistanis on the Mexican border, trying to get into the U.S., soon enough.

Problem is actually in direct contrast with China and India, whereby in exchange for giving personal freedoms, the masses got massive economic dividends. Whereas in Pakistan's case, establishment has only abolished personal freedom and aspirations in exchange for more misery and suffering and that too over 75 protracted years. Pakistan now is only a notch above NK and on par with Myanmar. Even Afghanistan has a more liberal streak by comparison. I expect both Myanmar and Afghanistan to eclipse Pakistan's standard of living in the next decade or so.

It’s not that bad, but it looks bleak. If it were not for family.

 

[blain2]

The new first generation immigrant don't think that way at least not anymore. Let me give you an example of myself and my friends. We are 5 Doctors all of us were discussing just a month ago what to with our careers now that we have gotten our license to Practice in 2 foreign countries. Some wanted to do specialty exams and some training abroad and come back after 2-3 years. Some of us wanted to complete our entire training abroad and come back 8-10 years down the line. Another friend of mine was doing masters in Cyber security and was supposed to come back and join a firm here. Guess what that firm doesn't exists anymore.

I talked to them a week ago every one is shit scared not a single one wants to come back now. One of them has even convinced his whole family to sell everything and move with him. No this new generation of immigrant will not be sending remittances they will get their dependents out of this state that tramples even our most basic rights.

What ever remittance Pakistan will receive will come from skilled/unskilled labour from Gulf States where people can't get citizen ships. Even then those with skills ultimately will leave for greener pastures.

It's quite possible because nothing stays the same forever. However, by the time the transition happens in your last line, one is hopeful things would have stabilized in Pakistan insha'Allah.

 

[Jango]

The new first generation immigrant don't think that way at least not anymore. Let me give you an example of myself and my friends. We are 5 Doctors all of us were discussing just a month ago what to with our careers now that we have gotten our license to Practice in 2 foreign countries. Some wanted to do specialty exams and some training abroad and come back after 2-3 years. Some of us wanted to complete our entire training abroad and come back 8-10 years down the line. Another friend of mine was doing masters in Cyber security and was supposed to come back and join a firm here. Guess what that firm doesn't exists anymore.

I talked to them a week ago every one is shit scared not a single one wants to come back now. One of them has even convinced his whole family to sell everything and move with him. No this new generation of immigrant will not be sending remittances they will get their dependents out of this state that tramples even our most basic rights.

What ever remittance Pakistan will receive will come from skilled/unskilled labour from Gulf States where people can't get citizen ships. Even then those with skills ultimately will leave for greener pastures.

I agree.

All those around me, no one now wants to have to do anything with Pakistan. Perhaps this is anecdotal, but you did not see this before.

People are taking loans in USD to gtfo of Pakistan.

I know people who had done homework for a startup, created a product, got some funding, were about to launch a product in Pakistan but then did not launch it. Now they are focusing on the US.

I know 2 companies which are shifting all of their finances to Dubai. They used to bring in proceeds from sales in the US to Pakistan, USD. Guess where it is going now.

Tum log bas level playing field par lagay raho.

 

[Goenitz]

Tum log bas level playing field par lagay raho.

Just focusing on 'updating software' while Banglore alone earns 200 billion $ from exporting IT solutions. I think it is nearly half of Pak GDP. All happened in 92 when they open market and FDI policy. China did in 70s by Denjong Pao. Singapore earlier Lu Kuan.
In 92, we were creating MQM .