Ceylal
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Saudi Arabia has changed the king. But the problems of transmission and distribution of power within the ruling family themselves remain the same. If Salman is the throne on January 23, appointments and dismissals he conducted suggest infighting. Upon taking office, King Khaled Al-discharge Tuwaijri, Grand Vizier of its predecessor, its functions and assigns it to live. He appoints his nephew, Mohammed bin Nayef, Crown Prince and Deputy his own son, Mohammed bin Salman, defense minister and director of the royal cabinet.
Then the king changes the most members of the government and several officials. The objective is to strengthen the king's faction and give it the means to control the process of decision making. But to understand this royal enterprise, we must return to the nature of the distribution and transmission of power in Saud.
Fashion adelphique estate
In Europe, the system of succession is lineal-agnatic, that is to say that the throne is transmitted vertically to the oldest reigning monarch of his descendants or relatives. In Saudi Arabia, the system is adelphique. Since 1953, power is transmitted brother brother. Six of the son of King Abdul Aziz Al Saud, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, have succeeded well since. All descendants of King themselves as potential suitors.
So it is the strongest of them who came to power. This causes more or less violent struggles, especially during generational transitions. After the death of Abdel Aziz, his heirs are engaged in a struggle for power. King Saud trying to marginalize his brothers for the benefit of his descendants. But a coalition of princes, led by his half-brother Faisal managed to drop it in 1964.
To avoid conflicts, the Saudis have established the multidomination system: a horizontal distribution of power among the most influential members of the ruling family. Each prince and size a "stronghold" and trying to raise a maximum of resources to better influence the process of decision making. This leads to the creation of factions.
Every great prince meets and around him family members, officers, clerics etc., for the basis of the broadest possible support. In this system, the King is only the first among equals - primus inter pares . To have influence, it must also have a faction. The main faction is that of Soudayris, from which the present king.
Since the late 1970s, Soudayris trying to monopolize power. But other factions trying to resist somehow to preserve the multidomination system. Abdallah itself as their natural leader. With control over the praetorian guard of the regime, it became crown prince in 1982, regent in 1995 and King in 2005.
Gerontocracy cycle
It strives to hinder the rise of Soudayris, including the creation in 2006 of allegiance Committee and the Vice-heir Prince function in 2012. All these maneuvers have failed because of the power of rivals. The coming to power of Salman and the appointment of Mohammed bin Nayef as heir prince Vice announce the victory of Soudayris. The royal family is actually the gates of a perilous generational transition.
The generation of the son of King Abdul Aziz is being shut down. Grandchildren son now control most of the key positions. But generational transition does not mean the end of gerontocracy. After King Abdullah's disappearance, at the age of 94, he was replaced by Salman, 81. Mouqrin the Crown Prince himself is 72 years old. If the latter two reign long enough, most of the contenders of the third generation could achieve the same age! The gerontocracy cycle could well happen again especially as the mode of inheritance, adelphique should be maintained in the medium term.
Indeed, the Crown Prince Mohammed bin vice Nayef (55) has no male descendant. Unless a surprise, the first king of the third generation will power to one of his cousins, including Mohammed bin Salman (35). This is the primary beneficiary of the recent changes in the country.
Most appointments and dismissals ordered by his father aim to strengthen its positions. In short, Salman longer remain at the head of the state, the more likely his son Mohammed to become king one day rise. But other factions have not said their last death and everything leads to believe that the struggle will be long and hard again!
The problem of succession and remains the Achilles heel of Saud. It could be the breach through which changes will slip. Some of them would facilitate the questioning of multidomination system and the adoption of primogeniture term. It is only at this price that the kingdom could face a shaky regional system and a changing global economy. And above all meet the economic, social and political demands of a society undergoing profound change.
A Riyad, l’arrivée au pouvoir du roi Salman cache un réel danger d’instabilité
