Kabul denied route for India trade

[Durran3]

It's not a question of ego but national security.
Are we going to escort every single truck through the country?
Who is going to pay the exorbitent costs of such an undertaking?
Are we going to assign junior ISI agents to do this task? police?
How do we guard against corruption and double agents?

Did you read my Above post? You don't have to escort every truck, you just have to create a few check posts that will keep things in tact. Just like we have the Motorway police who all get paid from the Motorway taxes we pay when we go on it. Of course the cost of trucks coming in would be much much higher. They would be paying Custom duties, they would be paying toll Taxes and other various taxes.

Though examination at the borders would be done strictly and carefully

It's a vertiable Pandora's box. No need to open it now, especially while the country already has so many other problems.

Your making it seem like we are placing a man on the moon. Why should we in this financial crisis let go of a way to earn a decent amount of income?

I know many people don't believe it but, given India's record in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Tibet, there is no doubt in my mind whatsover that India is involved in Balochistan and elsewhere.

If India wants to infiltrate the country it probably has plenty of ways and means to get in. Its much easier for the so called agents to come via the tribal areas than if they were to come from a heavily guarded and secure trade route used by Cargo trucks which will be checked at different check points.

Its definately not a miniscule economic gain. Like i said you have to add everything. People will be getting employment, small business opportunities like gas stations, kiosks, rest areas, restaurants etc. Security with regards to this situation is something that can be handled easily without much cost.

 

[pmukherjee]

Very realistic and practical. We need more people like you in government/security/defense.

Yeah Sino my friend, didn't I see you on some thread lecturing the benefits of Asians sticking togather and helping each other and so on? Or did you write that when you were not feeling too well?

 

[pmukherjee]

Your making it seem like we are placing a man on the moon. Why should we in this financial crisis let go of a way to earn a decent amount of income?
If India wants to infiltrate the country it probably has plenty of ways and means to get in. Its much easier for the so called agents to come via the tribal areas than if they were to come from a heavily guarded and secure trade route used by Cargo trucks which will be checked at different check points.

Very realistic and practical. We need more people like you in government/security/defense, only then can we have lasting peace on the sub continent

 

[Awesome]

What if some truck stops in the tribal area, loads/unloads some stuff picked up elsewhere? How hard would it be to bribe our security forces?

Can Afghanistan even afford a super high price tag on this? Suppose we put a price tag of a million dollars per truck...?

 

[dbc]

It's not a question of ego but national security.
Are we going to escort every single truck through the country?
Who is going to pay the exorbitent costs of such an undertaking?
Are we going to assign junior ISI agents to do this task? police?
How do we guard against corruption and double agents?

It's a vertiable Pandora's box. No need to open it now, especially while the country already has so many other problems.

I know many people don't believe it but, given India's record in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Tibet, there is no doubt in my mind whatsover that India is involved in Balochistan and elsewhere.

The miniscule economic benefits don't even come close to the potential downside of Indian infiltration.

Ever heard of customs? Every country has it explicitly for the purpose of inspecting and controlling the flow of goods. I understand your fear of Indian mischief, but China trades with India, so does Bangladesh and her other neighbors. Afghanistan is land locked; Iran is the only other viable option for Afghanistan. If I must spell it out, the easiest way of getting to central Asian goodies is via Iran, the second (preferred) choice is Afghanistan - Pakistan. Poor relations with Afghanistan will force US to deal with Iran making Pakistan less relevant – not just for US but Europe as well.

 

[Developereo]

Ever heard of customs? Every country has it explicitly for the purpose of inspecting and controlling the flow of goods.

The situation with India is not like a normal country. We have every reason to believe that India is involved in subversive activities within Pakistan. Indians and Americans may try to belittle the claim but this is a matter of our national security. India's involvement in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Tibet is well documented.

Poor relations with Afghanistan will force US to deal with Iran making Pakistan less relevant – not just for US but Europe as well.

We want good relations with Afghanistan, but not at the expense of our national security. And the US is far more likely to arm-twist Afghanistan to allow Gwadar <-> CAR traffic than to deal with Iran.

 

[Developereo]

Why should we in this financial crisis let go of a way to earn a decent amount of income?

First rule of business: sometimes you have to turn down a deal if the hidden downsides outweight the ostensible benefits.

We could make a billion dollars/year by allowing a US military base in Pakistan, but we don't.

This Kabul deal is a Trojan horse for us. Make no mistake about it.

 

[Developereo]

Rule no 1 . Pakistan will never get Kashmir, either militarily or diplomatically. India will never give up an inch of kashmiri soil right to the day of eternity.

[rant snipped]

This thread is about Kabul, not Kashmir.
Do try to keep up.

 

[trickey]

First rule of business: sometimes you have to turn down a deal if the hidden downsides outweight the ostensible benefits.

We could make a billion dollars/year by allowing a US military base in Pakistan, but we don't.

This Kabul deal is a Trojan horse for us. Make no mistake about it.

Paranoia has it's uses. But this line of thinking is obviously detrimental to Pakistani interests.

 

[A1Kaid]

This business/transit trade route proposal is indeed very interesting and has many pros and cons, complex dynamics, and more that ought to be examined.


Now as of yet my position is neutral to this trade proposal.


There are several things we must keep in mind, clearly there are security risks with large loads of products and goods and the traffic of Indian delivery trucks traveling and snaking their way through Pakistani territory into Kabul.


Cons

1) Indian smuggling of illegal or unapproved products/objects and goods enter Pakistan via proposed transit trade route.

2) Weapons smuggling to militants, supposedly Indian-RAW backed.

3) Worsen relations with current administration of Karzai in Kabul.

4) Possible loss of economic gain

5) Others


Pros

1) Allows Pakistan to regulate and control the economic relationship between Afghanistan-India, through their most important trade corridor.

2) If the situation between Pakistan and India boils again, this trade route provides Pakistan with a key leverage by allowing us to block India's trade with Afghanistan.

3) Financial gain, we can tax the deliveries from India to Afghanistan which may add to several million USD per year for Pakistan depending on the trade volume and traffic. Infrastructure improvement (specifically highway). Business opportunities and jobs.

4) Perhaps improved relations with Afghanistan

5) Increases Pakistan's important to the South-South West Asian economies.

6) And other benefits





Though there is a key provision I would add to this proposal of Pakistan becoming the transit trade route for Indian goods and products to Afghanistan.

My provision is this.


If India wants to trade with Afghanistan via Pakistan. Then this is how it should be done, India should send it's deliveries that are designated for Afghanistan to Gwadar Mega Port, Pakistan. This also would allow India to make less frequent trips and deliver more products to Afghanistan, possibly burn less fuel, and would limit Pakistan's security risks. At Gwadar, we can thoroughly examine the products as necessary to International protocols and standards.

So Indian ships must drop off their delivery and products at Gwadar, and from there Pakistani Trucks with Pakistani drivers will drive the products to Afghanistan through our own highways, this method is actually faster than using Iran's Chabahar port (time is money). From Gwadar, Pakistani trucks can reach Afghanistan much faster than any other country. This way Indian delivery trucks will not have to drive through Pakistan's territory...

In return, India gets it's goods and products delivered, Pakistan's legitimate security fears maybe and possibly mitigated, India-Afghanistan have good trade relations. India would also be legally promised that the deliveries would be guaranteed and their money and earnings would be sent to India by Afghani companies and/ or their Afghani business partners. So India does not have to fear their money being in our hands...




Maybe there are some flaws to this, but this provision must be added to this transit trade route proposal, or else I DO NOT support this business proposal.

 

[The Patriot]

Pakistan and India should first settle things between themselves then a third country could be bring in to the equation. Definitely Pakistan would see what is in its interests as every country does so.

 

[A1Kaid]

Ever heard of customs? Every country has it explicitly for the purpose of inspecting and controlling the flow of goods. I understand your fear of Indian mischief, but China trades with India, so does Bangladesh and her other neighbors. Afghanistan is land locked; Iran is the only other viable option for Afghanistan. If I must spell it out, the easiest way of getting to central Asian goodies is via Iran, the second (preferred) choice is Afghanistan - Pakistan. Poor relations with Afghanistan will force US to deal with Iran making Pakistan less relevant – not just for US but Europe as well.

Dear Madame,

"Poor relations with Afghanistan will force US to deal with Iran making Pakistan less relevant – not just for US but Europe as well."

Less relevant?

This actually maybe a good thing for us. It would limit the responsibility the International community places on Pakistan concerning Afghan affairs. Also, this would place more responsibility on neighboring nations, and in fact allow us to distance ourselves from Afghanistan to a beneficial extent, after all we are less relevant.

 

[Spitfighter]

Why not?

Denying trade with India through Pakistan is not 'isolating Afghanistan'. The argument that Afghanistan would deny Pakistan trade with all the CAR's (which is isolating Pakistan from an entire region), as a response to denial of trade with India through Pakistan, was raised by an Indian poster, to which it was pointed out that Afghanistan stands to lose a lot more than Pakistan through such tit for tat, since Pakistan's trade with the CAR's is negligible.

In addition, the trade being contemplated between the CAR's and Pakistan (gas pipelines and electricity lines) all benefit an impoverished Afghanistan through transit fees and part of the products being used locally in Afghanistan.

Since Iran is not facing gas and electricity shortfalls, these projects are only feasible if they serve Pakistan.

Therefore, for an impoverished nation like Afghanistan to deny access to the CAR's to Pakistan, is an example of Afghans cutting off their nose to spite Pakistan for the sake of trade with India.

hello there, I was afraid you left the site. Good to see you again.

-The US invasion of Afghanistan has cost Pakistan dearly. I think the implications of such an attack were not lost on the Pakistani establishment. Nevertheless, Pakistan decided to play along and even allowed for NATO supply lines to pass through its territory unabated. Thus, implying that Pakistan had little choice but to do so. Therefore, Pakistan cannot starve coalition troops in Afghanistan. It just isn't possible.

-Maybe denying the transit route isn't isolating Afghanistan, but the decision makes no economic sense. It was probably a political move to save face, given Pakistan's current predicament any government that cooperates with India would be setting itself up for disaster.

Also, AFAIK, the gas pipelines are economically viable only if India is in the loop.

Then there is also the question of safe passage through Pakistan and the possibility of economic blackmail over disputed territories.

India seems to have worked its way around Pakistan through Iran for now, but these ongoing disputes are helping no one. Both countries could have adopted a pragmatic approach instead of holding our economic interests hostage over Kashmir. Economic cooperation would give us a stake in each others development, reduce mutual distrust hence minimizing interference from outside powers and give us a real chance of reconciling our differences, but it seems we are more comfortable calling an outsider a brother.

 

[pmukherjee]

I understand your fear of Indian mischief, but China trades with India, so does Bangladesh and her other neighbors.

DBC
Let us be very very frank here, Pakistan is accusing India of now doing what it has been doing to India for the past 60 years. What track record are they talking of? Let me give you the track record, 50,000 tribals from NWFP comprising of all manners of criminals, social misfits, crazies and other forms of low life along with regular Pak Army personnel were sent into Kashmir via Muzaffarabad and Domel in 1948. These guys murdered, looted and raped their way towards Srinagar. They were stopped and sent back to Tithwal only when the Indian Army was air lifted to Srinagar airfield. That was the first instance of Pakistan meddling in affairs not its own. Operation Gibralter was launched in 1965 with widespread infiltration of tribals and regulars into Kashmir with the mandate to carry out sabotage and subversion. This led to the second indo-Pak war. Since then there have been scores of terrorist attacks, fidayeen strikes, bomb blasts all over the country engineered by ISI for which a ready supply of unemployed, disgruntled, illiterate, and maleable youth from under privileged back ground have been found mostly from villages of Punjab province. Out of work mujahideen were diverted into India in large numbers after the departure of the Soviets from Afghanistan. Kargil war was the direct result of this policy of Pakistan. The attack on the Indian Parilament by Jaish-e-Muhammad nearly led to another war as did the 26 November attacks on Mumbai by LET. The ISI and its hench men have been actively engaged for decades in recruiting and subverting Indians who are disgruntled and disaffected. ISI has a very large and well funded network in Nepal and Bangladesh for carrying out anti-Indian activities.
Now I find it very difficult to understand how with a track record like that, Pakistan is suddenly acting acting like a coy and bashful bride and projecting itself like an innocent victim who blames India for all its ills. What goes around must come around some day. No?

 

[Durran3]

What if some truck stops in the tribal area, loads/unloads some stuff picked up elsewhere? How hard would it be to bribe our security forces?

Can Afghanistan even afford a super high price tag on this? Suppose we put a price tag of a million dollars per truck...?

The Trucks don't need to go through the Tribal areas, coming straight from New Delhi all the way to Quetta or Torkham is 100% Pakistan territory. The only Tribal area we would be concerned about is the area between Quetta and Afghanistan.. i still don't see how thats a security problem. Once the Truck leaves Quetta its heading straight for Afghanistan no turning back.. And if the truck is entering Quetta its going be checked inside out before entering deep into Pakistan. The Tribal area argument in my opinion holds no merit