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Kabul denied route for India trade

This discussion has gone longer then it needed, but simply put in business the main saying goes "if there is a need there is a way". If all routes failed, then Indian companies have other options like openning sister plants in Afganistan. So simply by Pakistan saying No will not stop the trade, but the loser will be Pakistan in this senario.
 
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^^ Jeypore can you please shed some light on the IPI project. Is there anyway India can circumvent Pakistan?
 
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Yeah Sino my friend, didn't I see you on some thread lecturing the benefits of Asians sticking togather and helping each other and so on? Or did you write that when you were not feeling too well?

Cooperation & unity does NOT mean you become naive & stupid. :) Just because your my neighbor doesn't mean I leave my door wide open. I'll invite you for tea or dinner, but I'll still leave my door locked. Comprende? :agree:
 
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^^ Jeypore can you please shed some light on the IPI project. Is there anyway India can circumvent Pakistan?


My opinion only:

It is never going to happen. There are several reason for this:

Pakistan

There is a problem with cost of the transit route with Pakistan. One is India wants to pay .20 per mBtu, while Pakistan wants to charge .493 mBtu. That is more then 100% of what India is expecting. In my experience in buisness there'll never be a middle ground based on give and take on this senario.

Iran

Since the Global barrel of Oil has gone down, Iran has changed the pricing to 12% JCC (Japanese crued cocktail) increase. That is going to be one stickler, but workable.

The main problem with Iran is they want a take-or-pay system, which is India pay's first then oil is released going thru Pakistan. Not real favorable position for India. While India is looking for supply-or-pay, where Iran is responsible for bringing the oil thru Pakistan India border for Payment.

All in all there is no other favorable route for this pipe line, and while Pakistan's have said that this pipe line in not dead because they would eventually include China in the picture, but the stickler point will be payment system set by Iran.

So for now the old shipping line is the best senario. There are other things on the works like the running the pipe line thru the ocean, Iran to India, but we will see if that ever naturalizes.
 
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My opinion only:

It is never going to happen. There are several reason for this:

Pakistan

There is a problem with cost of the transit route with Pakistan. One is India wants to pay .20 per mBtu, while Pakistan wants to charge .493 mBtu. That is more then 100% of what India is expecting. In my experience in buisness there'll never be a middle ground based on give and take on this senario.

Iran

Since the Global barrel of Oil has gone down, Iran has changed the pricing to 12% JCC (Japanese crued cocktail) increase. That is going to be one stickler, but workable.

The main problem with Iran is they want a take-or-pay system, which is India pay's first then oil is released going thru Pakistan. Not real favorable position for India. While India is looking for supply-or-pay, where Iran is responsible for bringing the oil thru Pakistan India border for Payment.

All in all there is no other favorable route for this pipe line, and while Pakistan's have said that this pipe line in not dead because they would eventually include China in the picture, but the stickler point will be payment system set by Iran.

So for now the old shipping line is the best senario. There are other things on the works like the running the pipe line thru the ocean, Iran to India, but we will see if that ever naturalizes.

Building a subsea pipeline is massively more difficult (and expensive). Not to mention Iran nor India has the expertise or will to undertake such risky venture. Even these subsea pipelines are open to sabotage. The "other" option is to balkanize Pak by splitting off Balochistan, then the pipe can run through Balochistan. However, I caution all Asian nations in engaging in weakening/balkanizing each other. :disagree: We need to work together peacefully to negotiate our common welfare. :agree:
 
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No, both Pakistan and Afghanistan lose big. A picture is worth a thousand words..
The red line passes thru Baluchistan..coincidence? May be...:azn:
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e575ca3add766e658d2ee6b2938dd4ba.jpg


Source 1

Source 2

Well then Afghanistan should not deny Pakistan access to the CAR's out of spite then.

Pakistan is not denying Afghanistan access to the entire world, merely refusing to allow transit trade with ONE country that happens to be a hostile entity at the moment to Pakistan, and in the past few months has contemplated bombing Pakistan.

Does Afghanistan have any such legitimate reason to deny trade with the CAR's to Pakistan?
 
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I agree.
Pakistan has done superbly well in the military arena and we are rightly proud of our military scientists.

But, unlike India, we have completely neglected soft power and diplomacy as tools to serve Pakistan's interests. Good neighborly relations are always welcome.

We need to improve relations with Afghanistan and Iran. Eventually India (after Kashmir).

I don't think many are arguing that Pakistan isolate Afghanistan internationally - that line of argument only arose as a response to the argument that Afghanistan woudl deny all access to the CAR's because of Pakistan's reluctance to grant transit trade rights with India.

On the contrary, Afghanistan would be able to trade with the entire world save one nation - India, for reasons that are obvious. If we are talking about being 'good neighbors', then it would behoove the Afghans to not cross the line of 'good neighborly conduct' and force Pakistan to overlook her concerns over a hostile and aggressive nation, with which she has fought three wars and continues to have multiple unresolved disputes.
 
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I say we let them use our trade routes.. Bump up security to check what goods are being transferred and Heavily tax it :)

At last one optimist. As it is, Pakistan stands to earn a lot by way of Transit duties as the volume of trade is expected to be quite heavy.
My understanding is that the whole point of transit trade is that so long as the goods being traded were not going to be sold in Pakistan, they will not be taxed, whether imports into Afghanistan from XYZ nation or exports from Afghanistan to XYZ nation.

That is where historically Pakistan and Pakistani businesses have had a lot of issues with Afghan transit trade - goods are shipped to Afghanistan (under transit trade) to avoid paying Pakistani taxes and duties, and then smuggled back into Pakistan and sold illegally, undercutting local businesses that have to pay taxes and duties.

I am unaware of any suggestions under which Pakistan would tax these goods at the border before allowing shipment to Afghanistan. I doubt Pakistan would have too many issues if that were the case, since the GoP has been perfectly willing to allow the trade of natural gas and oil from Iran and the CAR's to India, since that would earn Pakistan a transit fee.
 
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India has always tried to work with every government in Afghanistan(except Taliban), just as it has tried to work with every tinpot dictator of Pakistan:
India’s interests in Afghanistan are clear—
  1. Containment of conflict with Pakistan
  2. Access to trade routes from Central Asia
  3. Access to energy routes from Central Asia
Afghanistan stands to gain from all three.
And Pakistan has tried to work with every government in Afghanistan - when the Afghan governments were not busy refusing to accept Pakistan as a nation, trying to initiate and support separatist movements in Pakistan, and carrying out terrorism in Pakistan, and I think even then we had a working relationship with the Afghans, just like we have had a working relationship with all perfidious Indian governments and leaders, whether the lying J Nehru or the terrorism supporting Indira Gandhi.

The three 'interests' you listed above, were in fact exactly the interests of Pakistan (with #1 changing to 'containment of conflict with India) that led to support for the Taliban regime in the hope that it might unite Afghanistan and bring about peace and stability that would allow trade with the CAR's. Both Ahmed Rashid and Steven Coll's books on the Taliban detail this fact.

With a long term view towards achieving those objectives, India is building up Afghanistan's infrastructure:
India is building schools, hospitals, roads, power grids.
India is training a new generation of Afghanistan workforce in carpentry, masonry to empower them to rebuild their own country.
India empowers Afghan women by training them in vegetable farming, food processing and entrepreneurship.

Excellent, and I believe Pakistan has pumped in about 300 million USD to India's 1 Billion USD in support to Afghanistan, along with being a major trading partner and source of many basic goods imported by Afghanistan.

On the other hand, Pakistan is doing everything in it's power to convert Afghanistan into a wasteland, all in the name of "strategic depth".

On the other hand you should not talk out of your *** since Pakistan is not doing any such thing, and as pointed out above, has not acted any differently then India nor with interests different than those you postulated as India's, if that truly is the case.

'Strategic depth' is one overblown fairy tale, that continues to be perpetuated by those who are incapable (or just refuse to) of understanding that Pakistan's interests in Afghanistan are far more complex and diverse than basing a few missile systems.

My opinion is that so many so called 'analysts' continue to perpetuate it because it sounds good and clever, and allows them to avoid dealing with a complex issue.

Its far easier to demonize and entity if one reduces that entity's aims and goals into a simplistic and moronic caricature
 
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"Does Afghanistan have any such legitimate reason to deny trade with the CAR's to Pakistan?"

You can't be serious?
 
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-The US invasion of Afghanistan has cost Pakistan dearly. I think the implications of such an attack were not lost on the Pakistani establishment. Nevertheless, Pakistan decided to play along and even allowed for NATO supply lines to pass through its territory unabated. Thus, implying that Pakistan had little choice but to do so. Therefore, Pakistan cannot starve coalition troops in Afghanistan. It just isn't possible.
The environment immediately post 911 is completely different from the environment today.

What characterized the thinking immediately post 911 was, to put it simply, that military force could be used to accomplish complex goals. Afghanistan and then Iraq invaded - what has been learned in the aftermath of that is pretty clear.

Pakistan refusing to cooperate in the immediate aftermath of 911 would have possibly invited military retaliation and perhaps even invasion. But today it is pretty clear that any attempt to do destabilize Pakistan, through a military invasion, sanctions etc. would only destabilize the regional situation further.

Think about it - why do NATO supplies even have to pass through Pakistan? Ostensibly to support the mission in Afghanistan, correct?

And what is the mission in Afghanistan? Stability? Lasting peace? End to insurgency?

If Pakistan refuses to cooperate with the NATO mission in Afghanistan, what exactly can NATO do that will not further destabilize that mission?

-Maybe denying the transit route isn't isolating Afghanistan, but the decision makes no economic sense. It was probably a political move to save face, given Pakistan's current predicament any government that cooperates with India would be setting itself up for disaster.

Also, AFAIK, the gas pipelines are economically viable only if India is in the loop.
There have been very real concerns and costs historically from smuggling related to transit trade to Afghanistan, so the reluctance to grant transit trade to India is not entirely due of political reasons.

I am also unaware of any of the original pipeline deals (TAP for example) having connections to India, though that would not be something Pakistan would oppose. The pipeline deals know proposed initially were for Pakistani consumption and export out of Gwadar. There has been talk of a TAP(I) pipeline, but given India's reluctance to join the far more feasible and advanced (in terms of planning and negotiations) IPI pipeline, arguments of export to India carry little weight. Going by India's past behavior, its not happening any time soon.

Then there is also the question of safe passage through Pakistan and the possibility of economic blackmail over disputed territories.

India seems to have worked its way around Pakistan through Iran for now, but these ongoing disputes are helping no one. Both countries could have adopted a pragmatic approach instead of holding our economic interests hostage over Kashmir. Economic cooperation would give us a stake in each others development, reduce mutual distrust hence minimizing interference from outside powers and give us a real chance of reconciling our differences, but it seems we are more comfortable calling an outsider a brother.

Here you seem to be arguing against Pakistan being used for transit trade with Afghanistan, so I am not sure what your point is since my impression was that you started off arguing in favor of such trade.

In any case, India is obviously welcome to go through Iran. India is not Afghanistan's only trading partner, and Afghanistan and especially the Pakhtun transporters and truckers have beaten a path for trade with the rest of the world through Pakistan for centuries. So long as those shipping and transportation routes remain viable, trade with India or not, the Afghans will continue to use Pakistan for trade IMO.
 
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"Does Afghanistan have any such legitimate reason to deny trade with the CAR's to Pakistan?"

You can't be serious?

Which CAR does Afghanistan have issues with that compare to the hostile relationship between India and Pakistan?

Surely Afghanistan is not presuming to dictate Pakistan's foreign policy with India.
 
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"I believe Pakistan has pumped in about 300 million USD to India's 1 Billion USD in support to Afghanistan, along with being a major trading partner and source of many basic goods imported by Afghanistan."

Love to see a link or two substantiating that $300m USD please. Not that I doubt you but...I doubt you. Last I saw was below $200m.

India has already spent or pledged at least $1.2B-

India Pledges Aid to Afghanistan-Al Jazerra Aug. 5, 2008

I look forward to something similar from you.
 
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"I believe Pakistan has pumped in about 300 million USD to India's 1 Billion USD in support to Afghanistan, along with being a major trading partner and source of many basic goods imported by Afghanistan."

Love to see a link or two substantiating that $300m USD please. Not that I doubt you but...I doubt you. Last I saw was below $200m.

India has already spent or pledged at least $1.2B-

India Pledges Aid to Afghanistan-Al Jazerra Aug. 5, 2008

I look forward to something similar from you.

Simple googling is not turning up the link I read it on, so lets leave it at the 200 million USD for now, until I find the link.

Not bad for people obsessed with 'strategic depth' eh...:cheers:
 
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The CARs will have to appreciate Afghanistan's tenuous relationship with Pakistan and understand the immense difficulty transiting such goods south to Pakistan might play in such.

As to the reverse, it'll be difficult for Afghans to assure that goods traveling north to CAR aren't used as cover to resupply taliban operations within Afghanistan.

Until the Pakistani government ceases it's acts of war against the Afghan people, I doubt that there'll be substantive changes to this contentious trade relationship.

All will benefit by opening trade routes and putting down the guns. Pakistan will need to understand that requires an immense display of diplomatic acumen as a stark change-of-direction from harboring proxy armies.

I don't know that it's possible for you to do so. It means accepting the status quo in Afghanistan and then working to change matters through persuasion and demonstratable good-will and not via targeted bombings and attacks upon school-girls.

Try it for a notably refreshing change of pace.:agree:
 
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