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Jul-Oct trade deficit swells 104% Year on Year

muhammadhafeezmalik

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The country’s trade deficit has swelled by 104 percent to $15.525 billion during the first four months (July-October) 2021-22 from $ 7.617 billion in the corresponding period of financial year 2020-21.

According to the Commerce Ministry imports have posted growth of 64.5 per cent touching $ 25 billion ($ 24.994) during the first four months (July-October) of 2021-22, against 15.193 billion during the same period of 2020-21showing a difference of $ 9.801 billion during this period.

The country’s imports registered $ 6.247 billion in October 2021 as compared to $ 3.907 billion in the same month of 2020, posting a growth of 60 per cent. Trade deficit remained at 109.4 per cent to $ 3.775 billion in October as compared to $ 1.803 billion in October 2020.

An official statement issued by the Commerce Ministry says that Pakistan’s exports in October 2021 grew by 17.5% to $2.471 billion as compared to $2.104 billion in Oct 2020 which is the highest ever export in any month of October. Ministry has also claimed that export target for October 2021 was $2.6 billion.

It further said that for the period Jul-Oct 2021, exports grew by 25% to $ 9.468 billion as compared to $ 7.576 billion during July-Oct 2020, slightly behind the target of $ 9.6 billion.

The Commerce Ministry maintained that during July-Oct 2021-22, imports increased by 64% to $24.99 billion compared to $15.19 billion during Jul-Oct 2020-21, claiming that about 40% of this increase is investment-driven (capital goods, raw material & intermediates) which indicates expansion of industry and enhanced activity by industry.

The remaining 60% of imports comprise petroleum, coal and gas 34%, vaccines 11%, food (8%), consumer goods (2%) and all others (5%). Most of this is inelastic in nature.

The Ministry has also claimed that in absolute terms, the net increase in imports over this period is $ 9.801 billion. Of this, the consumer goods are $ 239 million, food $ 823 million, capital goods $ 1.620 billion, raw material and intermediates $ 2.209 billion, petroleum, coal and gas $ 3.364 billion, vaccines $ 1.068 billion and all others $ 478 million.


 
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The country’s trade deficit has swelled by 104 percent to $15.525 billion during the first four months (July-October) 2021-22 from $ 7.617 billion in the corresponding period of financial year 2020-21.

According to the Commerce Ministry imports have posted growth of 64.5 per cent touching $ 25 billion ($ 24.994) during the first four months (July-October) of 2021-22, against 15.193 billion during the same period of 2020-21showing a difference of $ 9.801 billion during this period.

The country’s imports registered $ 6.247 billion in October 2021 as compared to $ 3.907 billion in the same month of 2020, posting a growth of 60 per cent. Trade deficit remained at 109.4 per cent to $ 3.775 billion in October as compared to $ 1.803 billion in October 2020.

An official statement issued by the Commerce Ministry says that Pakistan’s exports in October 2021 grew by 17.5% to $2.471 billion as compared to $2.104 billion in Oct 2020 which is the highest ever export in any month of October. Ministry has also claimed that export target for October 2021 was $2.6 billion.

It further said that for the period Jul-Oct 2021, exports grew by 25% to $ 9.468 billion as compared to $ 7.576 billion during July-Oct 2020, slightly behind the target of $ 9.6 billion.

The Commerce Ministry maintained that during July-Oct 2021-22, imports increased by 64% to $24.99 billion compared to $15.19 billion during Jul-Oct 2020-21, claiming that about 40% of this increase is investment-driven (capital goods, raw material & intermediates) which indicates expansion of industry and enhanced activity by industry.

The remaining 60% of imports comprise petroleum, coal and gas 34%, vaccines 11%, food (8%), consumer goods (2%) and all others (5%). Most of this is inelastic in nature.

The Ministry has also claimed that in absolute terms, the net increase in imports over this period is $ 9.801 billion. Of this, the consumer goods are $ 239 million, food $ 823 million, capital goods $ 1.620 billion, raw material and intermediates $ 2.209 billion, petroleum, coal and gas $ 3.364 billion, vaccines $ 1.068 billion and all others $ 478 million.


Last moths remittances were 2.7 billion. If it marginally increases to 2.8 then we are looking at a CAD of less than 1 billion - which is good (despite high import bill due to soaring energy costs and inflation in international markets).
 
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Last moths remittances were 2.7 billion. If it marginally increases to 2.8 then we are looking at a CAD of less than 1 billion - which is good (despite high import bill due to soaring energy costs and inflation in international markets).
Bs bhai, andhi support ki bhi koi had hoti Hai.... Imran or uski cartoon company se kch nahi sambhal raha... Or aap jaisy log hain keh jinka wah wah hi khatam nahi horaha.
 
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Last moths remittances were 2.7 billion. If it marginally increases to 2.8 then we are looking at a CAD of less than 1 billion - which is good (despite high import bill due to soaring energy costs and inflation in international markets).

October 2021 posted a trade deficit of $3.88bn, showing an increase of 117pc it will be no-way less $1b. $1b per month means $12b per year deficit, how will we bridge this deficit??
 
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Don’t import oil and gas and you will be in surplus.

In fact import of petroleum products was decreased significantly during last reported month over previous month:

1635923418270.png
 
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October 2021 posted a trade deficit of $3.88bn, showing an increase of 117pc it will be no-way less $1b. $1b per month means $12b per year deficit, how will we bridge this deficit??
I am talking about Current Account Deficit being leas than a billion. With our FDI figures not that great, it will need to be financed.
 
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In fact import of petroleum products was decreased significantly during last reported month over previous month:

View attachment 789801

Month on month variation is common, on the other hand our consumption data suggests no difference in consumption for motor spirits and diesel. Just oil companies adjusting inventory.

This will simplify things for you.

The breakdown sector wise of increase in imports for 4 months FY 2022 (July-Oct).as compared to the same period in FY2021.


1635969773769.png
 
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I am talking about Current Account Deficit being leas than a billion. With our FDI figures not that great, it will need to be financed.

With the flexible exchange rate it does not need to be financed dollar for dollar, currency is taking the brunt of it.
 
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