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http://the-press-news.com/ap international/2012/08/31/jihadist-shift-seen-in-pakistan-__-fewer-arabs
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) -- In the
Pakistani tribal regions that harbor al-Qaida and a cauldron of other jihadist groups, militants from Central Asia, China, Turkey and even Germany are growing in number, eclipsing Arabs and possibly raising new challenges not just for the U.S. but for Europe, Russia and China, say intelligence
officials, analysts and residents of the area.
Al-Qaida, the organization that plotted the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks from Afghanistan, consisted largely of Arabs, who were led by Osama bin Laden, a Saudi. But stepped-up U.S. drone strikes, Pakistani military offensives and dwindling cash
reserves have driven out many of the Arabic-speakers in recent years, says Mahmood Shah, a retired brigadier and former security official in the tribal regions.
While there are no exact numbers,
Shah said intelligence sources in the
tribal regions put the number of Arab and African jihadists at about 1,500, compared with 3,500 to 4,000
ranging from Chinese Uighurs and Uzbeks to recruits from Turkey, the
Russian republics of Chechnya and
Dagestan as well as native and
immigrant Germans.
Two senior U.S. officials said the drone war was affecting al-Qaida numbers and morale. The deaths of high-profile al-Qaida figures such as Abu Yahya al-Libi, killed in a drone strike in June, have made others skittish, prompting some to leave Pakistan for other battlefields in Syria, Yemen, Iraq or their home countries, the officials said. In separate interviews, both Americans cited the case of a Saudi named Najam, who lost his legs to a drone at about the same time as al-Libi died. They said Najam, who came from an affluent family, was able to reach an agreement with the Saudi government to return to his wife and children.
Intelligence suggests that Najam's
treatment has encouraged other
militants to seek similar deals, switch
to other battlefields or seek leniency
from their governments, both U.S.
officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity
because they are not authorized to
discuss information gleaned from on-the-ground intelligence.
None of the Central Asian groups
figuring in the apparent demographic change are new to the tribal regions.
Some were welcomed to Afghanistan decades ago during the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Others arrived during the Taliban's rule of Afghanistan that lasted from 1996 to the American-led invasion of 2001.
The breakaway Chechen government even had an embassy in Kabul.
The Sept. 11 attacks focused global
attention on the Arab militants, but the changing demographics could have implications for Europe as well as Russia and China, analysts say.
The arrest in Madrid a month ago of
three men who allegedly had
explosives and reportedly trained in
Pakistan's tribal areas seems to
highlight the changing reality. Two of them, Eldar Magomedov and
Mohamed Ankari Adamov, were said
to be Russians of Chechen descent
while the third, Cengiz Yalcin, is
Turkish.
Spanish officials allege they were planning an attack in Spain or
elsewhere in Europe. There was no
identification of the target.
Analysts and officials who track
militant movements say they believe
al-Qaida's leadership, including
Egyptian Ayman Al Zawahri, remains in Pakistan, where its redoubts have
shrunk further under Pakistani military assaults, according to Shah, the ex- brigadier, who was interviewed in the northwest Pakistani city of Peshawar near the tribal regions.
But jihadists from outside the Arab
world have been getting more
attention.
A report on extremist trends released
last month by Germany's domestic
intelligence said the Islamic Jihad
Union, headquartered in Pakistan's
tribal area, is "widening its sphere in
the sense of global jihad to include Europe." Once dominated by ethnic
Uzbeks, the IJU has sought to recruit
German converts who have embraced
a radical form of Islam as well as
Germans of Turkish origin, say
analysts familiar with the organization.
In 2007, German intelligence foiled a terrorist plot planned by ethnic
German converts to Islam who
belonged to the Islamic Jihad Union
(IJU). "They (IJU) want to recruit Turkish-origin people but maybe born in Germany, established here and with a German passport ... they train them and build them up and send them to Germany as well as to other European countries to commit acts of terrorism,"
said Rolf Tophoven, director of the
German Based Institute for Terrorism Research and Security Policy.
According to the SITE Intelligence
Group, which tracks Islamist extremist
messages, the IJU is known as the
European affiliate to al Qaida. SITE
described the IJU's rise in prominence
as a significant development within the global jihadist movement. The IJU, like other ****** groups, seeks
the installation, if necessary by force, of Islamic governments and revenge for Western attacks. In 2005 the U.S.
State Department designated the IJU a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
For the past 30 years, Bruce Hoffman,
director of the Center for Peace and
Security Studies at Washington's
Georgetown University, has been
tracking terrorist groups and studying
insurgencies. He said that European governments as well as China and
Russia have good reason to keep a
close eye on the tribal regions of
Pakistan. "The IJU was also strengthened by
their access to German converts," he
said, as well as to disaffected members
of China's Muslim Uighur minority,
concentrated in Xinjiang, western
China, whose radicalization "the Chinese are very concerned about." Russia too has strong interests in the Muslim-dominated republics that were part of the Soviet Union, and in Chechnya and Dagestan, Hoffman said.
The threat from the changing jihadist
demographics is "more in the future
than immediately. The main threat is
that the existing nucleus will attract
more and as time goes on the threat
will increase. It exists now, but at a lower level," he said in an interview. Ivan Safranchuk, an associate
professor at the Moscow State Institute
of International Relations, told The AP
that the governments of the Central
Asian republics also fear instability
from neighboring Afghanistan once NATO and U.S. troops leave in 2014 Safranchuk, who edits the Great Game,
a magazine focused on Central Asia,
said training camps in Pakistan have
attracted mostly Uighurs and recruits
from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan. "If a new battle front opens in
Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan, say, these
militants will naturally be dispatched
there," he said. Stephen Sestanovich, an expert on
Russian and Eurasian affairs at the U.S.-
based Council on Foreign Relations,
agreed that Russia and the Central
Asian republics have a stake in what
happens after the 2014 withdrawal. "It's a reminder to the Russians that
the U.S, departure from Afghanistan is going to be a very mixed blessing.
That's why (Russian President
Vladimir) Putin has actually been
talking up Russia's stake in American success there. ... Putin and Russian
intelligence doubtless worry that
Central Asia will be destabilized." While the demographics may be
changing, the militant presence in the
tribal regions remains strong, despite the drone attacks and the local public's growing expectation of a Pakistani military sweep, according to Safdar Hayat Khan, head of the Tribal
Journalists Union, in an interview in
Peshawar. "There are still so many foreigners there," he said. "They keep coming
and going."
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) -- In the
Pakistani tribal regions that harbor al-Qaida and a cauldron of other jihadist groups, militants from Central Asia, China, Turkey and even Germany are growing in number, eclipsing Arabs and possibly raising new challenges not just for the U.S. but for Europe, Russia and China, say intelligence
officials, analysts and residents of the area.
Al-Qaida, the organization that plotted the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks from Afghanistan, consisted largely of Arabs, who were led by Osama bin Laden, a Saudi. But stepped-up U.S. drone strikes, Pakistani military offensives and dwindling cash
reserves have driven out many of the Arabic-speakers in recent years, says Mahmood Shah, a retired brigadier and former security official in the tribal regions.
While there are no exact numbers,
Shah said intelligence sources in the
tribal regions put the number of Arab and African jihadists at about 1,500, compared with 3,500 to 4,000
ranging from Chinese Uighurs and Uzbeks to recruits from Turkey, the
Russian republics of Chechnya and
Dagestan as well as native and
immigrant Germans.
Two senior U.S. officials said the drone war was affecting al-Qaida numbers and morale. The deaths of high-profile al-Qaida figures such as Abu Yahya al-Libi, killed in a drone strike in June, have made others skittish, prompting some to leave Pakistan for other battlefields in Syria, Yemen, Iraq or their home countries, the officials said. In separate interviews, both Americans cited the case of a Saudi named Najam, who lost his legs to a drone at about the same time as al-Libi died. They said Najam, who came from an affluent family, was able to reach an agreement with the Saudi government to return to his wife and children.
Intelligence suggests that Najam's
treatment has encouraged other
militants to seek similar deals, switch
to other battlefields or seek leniency
from their governments, both U.S.
officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity
because they are not authorized to
discuss information gleaned from on-the-ground intelligence.
None of the Central Asian groups
figuring in the apparent demographic change are new to the tribal regions.
Some were welcomed to Afghanistan decades ago during the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Others arrived during the Taliban's rule of Afghanistan that lasted from 1996 to the American-led invasion of 2001.
The breakaway Chechen government even had an embassy in Kabul.
The Sept. 11 attacks focused global
attention on the Arab militants, but the changing demographics could have implications for Europe as well as Russia and China, analysts say.
The arrest in Madrid a month ago of
three men who allegedly had
explosives and reportedly trained in
Pakistan's tribal areas seems to
highlight the changing reality. Two of them, Eldar Magomedov and
Mohamed Ankari Adamov, were said
to be Russians of Chechen descent
while the third, Cengiz Yalcin, is
Turkish.
Spanish officials allege they were planning an attack in Spain or
elsewhere in Europe. There was no
identification of the target.
Analysts and officials who track
militant movements say they believe
al-Qaida's leadership, including
Egyptian Ayman Al Zawahri, remains in Pakistan, where its redoubts have
shrunk further under Pakistani military assaults, according to Shah, the ex- brigadier, who was interviewed in the northwest Pakistani city of Peshawar near the tribal regions.
But jihadists from outside the Arab
world have been getting more
attention.
A report on extremist trends released
last month by Germany's domestic
intelligence said the Islamic Jihad
Union, headquartered in Pakistan's
tribal area, is "widening its sphere in
the sense of global jihad to include Europe." Once dominated by ethnic
Uzbeks, the IJU has sought to recruit
German converts who have embraced
a radical form of Islam as well as
Germans of Turkish origin, say
analysts familiar with the organization.
In 2007, German intelligence foiled a terrorist plot planned by ethnic
German converts to Islam who
belonged to the Islamic Jihad Union
(IJU). "They (IJU) want to recruit Turkish-origin people but maybe born in Germany, established here and with a German passport ... they train them and build them up and send them to Germany as well as to other European countries to commit acts of terrorism,"
said Rolf Tophoven, director of the
German Based Institute for Terrorism Research and Security Policy.
According to the SITE Intelligence
Group, which tracks Islamist extremist
messages, the IJU is known as the
European affiliate to al Qaida. SITE
described the IJU's rise in prominence
as a significant development within the global jihadist movement. The IJU, like other ****** groups, seeks
the installation, if necessary by force, of Islamic governments and revenge for Western attacks. In 2005 the U.S.
State Department designated the IJU a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
For the past 30 years, Bruce Hoffman,
director of the Center for Peace and
Security Studies at Washington's
Georgetown University, has been
tracking terrorist groups and studying
insurgencies. He said that European governments as well as China and
Russia have good reason to keep a
close eye on the tribal regions of
Pakistan. "The IJU was also strengthened by
their access to German converts," he
said, as well as to disaffected members
of China's Muslim Uighur minority,
concentrated in Xinjiang, western
China, whose radicalization "the Chinese are very concerned about." Russia too has strong interests in the Muslim-dominated republics that were part of the Soviet Union, and in Chechnya and Dagestan, Hoffman said.
The threat from the changing jihadist
demographics is "more in the future
than immediately. The main threat is
that the existing nucleus will attract
more and as time goes on the threat
will increase. It exists now, but at a lower level," he said in an interview. Ivan Safranchuk, an associate
professor at the Moscow State Institute
of International Relations, told The AP
that the governments of the Central
Asian republics also fear instability
from neighboring Afghanistan once NATO and U.S. troops leave in 2014 Safranchuk, who edits the Great Game,
a magazine focused on Central Asia,
said training camps in Pakistan have
attracted mostly Uighurs and recruits
from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan. "If a new battle front opens in
Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan, say, these
militants will naturally be dispatched
there," he said. Stephen Sestanovich, an expert on
Russian and Eurasian affairs at the U.S.-
based Council on Foreign Relations,
agreed that Russia and the Central
Asian republics have a stake in what
happens after the 2014 withdrawal. "It's a reminder to the Russians that
the U.S, departure from Afghanistan is going to be a very mixed blessing.
That's why (Russian President
Vladimir) Putin has actually been
talking up Russia's stake in American success there. ... Putin and Russian
intelligence doubtless worry that
Central Asia will be destabilized." While the demographics may be
changing, the militant presence in the
tribal regions remains strong, despite the drone attacks and the local public's growing expectation of a Pakistani military sweep, according to Safdar Hayat Khan, head of the Tribal
Journalists Union, in an interview in
Peshawar. "There are still so many foreigners there," he said. "They keep coming
and going."
