Japan’s Pivot Away from the West Leads Back to China

[Aepsilons]

ah innovation. What is it do you know?

For example fighter planes. When fighters first came onto the scene, there was no need for stealth, there was no radar, then there needed something to detect the fighters, and in came radars. With radars, came the need for stealth, and here we are.


China for a long time was on the back end of the technological ladder. China is innovative, but lacks certain characteristics.

For example, how is China suppose to invent stealth when we didn't even have a credible fighter in the fourth gen. Did we suddenly grow innovative as we do have the fifth gen fighter?

Hell no, we understand the principles of advanced radars, and we have developed a need for stealth. Hence stealth.

Innovation is not a procedure, it takes genius, but within reason. A caveman can never invent stealth, but the same men given the education and background and need might.


If all Japan has is innovation, then Japan doesn't have anything at all. During the first Korea invasion, Japan was at a military all time high, just after the sengoku Jidai. However, they were badly defeated at Korea. China at that time was facing unprecedented inflation, ironically due to Japan and Spain's silver and gold trade. The first paper money and etc.

China needs to be so weak and so backwards like the Qing dynasty for Japan to be the key nation in Asia.


I am afraid within our foreseeable future that will not happen again.


Japan is strong is like UK is strong, compared to his big brother US, UK is nothing but a distraction. Today Japan is not that helpless, but with current projections. 20 years....


The question becomes, can Japan accept this role peacefully? My money is no, just as we didn't accept Japan as superior until we lost, nor will Japan accept our superiority without a lost. Not a great ending, but it is unfortunately the only ending possible.

I can see no reason why Japan will divert from our non-aggressive policy , which we have held to breast for the past 70 some years.

PS. Thanks for your post on historical dynamic. Good to see that you have some knowledge on Sengoku Jidai.

 

[Genesis]

I can see no reason why Japan will divert from our non-aggressive policy , which we have held to breast for the past 70 some years.

PS. Thanks for your post on historical dynamic. Good to see that you have some knowledge on Sengoku Jidai.

I know Japanese history from the time of it's first mention in the book of Han, to pretty much WW2. Some gaps here and there of course.


But what I will say is this, it's nobody's fault, no one is necessarily wrong, and no one is aggressive. It is just what it is.

Unfortunately the same thing that makes us successful is also the same thing that will spell war between us. We can be good allies, but not before war.

Unfortunately Japan and China's potential is too big. Today's Japan is more or less at it's peak, China is just starting, but even at this stage, China is way stronger than Japan can ever be.


There is a possibility to avoid war, but only between Japan and China. China either way will need to fight. The pathway to greatness is not a road of stuff animals, but bones.

 

[amitkriit]

Asian nations must refuse to be used as cannon fodders against one another by the western hegemonic powers. Asia belongs to the Asians, we will sort out our differences among ourselves. It is time for the western powers to pack their bags and leave.

 

[Developereo]

CN-JP-SK should dominate the entire Asian geopolitical space.

That would be a kickass combination.

As much as I admire the US and believe it will dominate the world for the foreseeable future, if CN-JP-SK formed a group, they would have a good chance to breeze past the US in fifty odd years, in terms of economic, technological and military power.

If I had to place bets between the four contenders
- USA
- EU
- Russia
- CN-JP-SK

I would pick the East Asian combo without a doubt.

Germany is weighed down by the dead-weight in Southern/Eastern Europe, US tends to overstretch itself, and Russia lacks the critical mass in human capital.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

That would be a kickass combination.

As much as I admire the US and believe it will dominate the world for the foreseeable future, if CN-JP-SK formed a group, they would have a good chance to breeze past the US in fifty odd years, in terms of economic, technological and military power.

If I had to place bets between the four contenders
- USA
- EU
- Russia
- CN-JP-SK

I would pick the East Asian combo without a doubt.

Germany is weighed down by the dead-weight in Southern/Eastern Europe, US tends to overstretch itself, and Russia lacks the critical mass in human capital.

Yes, China and Japan being the 2nd and 3rd biggest economies presently, together our nominal GDP is already equal to that of America, and in terms of PPP we together will far surpass them. And we still have SO much more potential, China in particular hasn't even reached 10% of our per capita potential in terms of productivity.

If Japan was an independent and sovereign power, free of American influence, that would be a huge blow to the current unipolar world order.

It may not be a realistic prospect in the near to medium term, but it is surely something to strive for. I don't think Chinese and Koreans in general blame the current generation of young Japanese people for the crimes committed by their ancestors over 70 years ago (it would be illogical to do so), however America still has a big bag of tricks that they can use to play divide and conquer again. And with sensitivities running high, it won't take very much effort at all for America to sow the seeds of discord.

 

[vostok]

That would be a kickass combination.

As much as I admire the US and believe it will dominate the world for the foreseeable future, if CN-JP-SK formed a group, they would have a good chance to breeze past the US in fifty odd years, in terms of economic, technological and military power.

If I had to place bets between the four contenders
- USA
- EU
- Russia
- CN-JP-SK

I would pick the East Asian combo without a doubt.

Germany is weighed down by the dead-weight in Southern/Eastern Europe, US tends to overstretch itself, and Russia lacks the critical mass in human capital.

This hypothetical. In reality, the unions are more likely these
Eurasian Union-China-Iran-India?-Pakistan?
US-EU-Japan-South Korea
Ah, yes - I forgot. North Korea likely act on the side of first block

 

[Aepsilons]

It may not be a realistic prospect in the near to medium term, but it is surely something to strive for. I don't think Chinese and Koreans in general blame the current generation of young Japanese people for the crimes committed by their ancestors over 70 years ago (it would be illogical to do so), however America still has a big bag of tricks that they can use to play divide and conquer again. And with sensitivities running high, it won't take very much effort at all for America to sow the seeds of discord.

Back in 2009, Japanese PM Yukio Hatoyama had talks with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao on a possible East Asian Community , the likes of which would be as similar to that of EU. Its interesting that due to trivial geopolitics and the issue of the Senkakus / Diaoyu Islands led to the cooling of such relations. I think that relations will be improved once we can find a solution / understanding on territoriality.

I say, why not?

 

[Developereo]

This hypothetical. In reality, the unions are more likely these
Eurasian Union-China-Iran-India?-Pakistan?
US-EU-Japan-South Korea
Ah, yes - I forgot. North Korea likely act on the side of first block

I agree that my example was hypothetical, but I don't see your set of unions materializing either.

The first one is essentially anti-US union, and the second one anti-China.

I don't see that anti-anything is strong enough for countries to form a union, unless the threat is imminent and extreme. That was the case with USSR (NATO) and USA (Warsaw Pact), but that kind of urgency is not perceived right now by most countries.

 

[Developereo]

Yes, China and Japan being the 2nd and 3rd biggest economies presently, together our nominal GDP is already equal to that of America, and in terms of PPP we together will far surpass them. And we still have SO much more potential, China in particular hasn't even reached 10% of our per capita potential in terms of productivity.

If Japan was an independent and sovereign power, free of American influence, that would be a huge blow to the current unipolar world order.

It may not be a realistic prospect in the near to medium term, but it is surely something to strive for. I don't think Chinese and Koreans in general blame the current generation of young Japanese people for the crimes committed by their ancestors over 70 years ago (it would be illogical to do so), however America still has a big bag of tricks that they can use to play divide and conquer again. And with sensitivities running high, it won't take very much effort at all for America to sow the seeds of discord.

My comment was not really based on GDP figures but the cultures of these countries.

There are very few countries in the world which have a culture of focused determination: Germany, Japan, USA, China, South Korea, Russia, Israel.

These countries have shown that they have an intelligent population, a culture of discipline and single minded focused determination to achieve their goals.

If any of these countries/cultures sets themselves a goal, by God, they WILL achieve it.

And you can't say that about most other countries in the world.

 

[vostok]

My comment was not really based on GDP figures but the cultures of these countries.

There are very few countries in the world which have a culture of focused determination: Germany, Japan, USA, China, South Korea, Russia, Israel.

These countries have shown that they have an intelligent population, a culture of discipline and single minded focused determination to achieve their goals.

If any of these countries/cultures sets themselves a goal, by God, they WILL achieve it.

And you can't say that about most other countries in the world.

Americans have recently announced that they are going to rule forever - well, or at least the next 100 years. So what will be alliances - the U.S. and its vassals against Russia and China.

 

[cnleio]

Ｍｏｎｅｙ　ｉｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｂｅｓｔ　ｆｒｉｅｎｄ，ｎｏｔ　ｅｎｅｍｙ　！

 

[TaiShang]

Americans have recently announced that they are going to rule forever - well, or at least the next 100 years. So what will be alliances - the U.S. and its vassals against Russia and China.

I am not sure US intention would really match its capabilities for that long.

But I guess every declining hegemon is also a very obstinate one. That's possibly in the very nature of the state.

 

[mike2000]

Asian nations must refuse to be used as cannon fodders against one another by the western hegemonic powers. Asia belongs to the Asians, we will sort out our differences among ourselves. It is time for the western powers to pack their bags and leave.

ahahahah. Are you serious bro? The U.S/west is still regarded more postively by almost all Asian countries bar maybe China, Russia, North Korea and Pakistan. All Asia still loves the U.S/west more than they do with their own asian 'brothers/neighbours'. Just make a simple survey in your country india and ask which country they prefer/like most: China,Japan or the U.S. the answer you will get is the U.S. same with Japan, ask the Japanese who they prefer and almost all will say Uncle sam, and i dont need to talk about filipinos/vietnamese, taiwanese etc...

The problem with Asia in general with Asia is that, they by large still prefer the U.S/west to their own neighbours.

so talk of the U.S/west leaving the region is just a pipe dream. Most Asian countries are instead calling for more U.S involvement in the region, ask vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, singapore, south Korea, philippines etc. So forget about Asia for Asians. Uncle sam is there to stay, short of a revolution(which we all know will not happen).

 

[mike2000]

Back in 2009, Japanese PM Yukio Hatoyama had talks with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao on a possible East Asian Community , the likes of which would be as similar to that of EU. Its interesting that due to trivial geopolitics and the issue of the Senkakus / Diaoyu Islands led to the cooling of such relations. I think that relations will be improved once we can find a solution / understanding on territoriality.

I say, why not?

Huh....as a japanese, are you supporting being partner/ally with China over the U.S?
You should know that Uncle Sam has helped Japan quite alot. From helping rebuilt Japan after the war, to forgiving/not judging Japanese war criminals, who were allowed to even keep their positions(e.g the emperor who was at the head of the japanese war machine), overlooking Japans visits of war criminals yakushini shrine, and sexual slavery denials etc. If anything Japan should be thankful to the U.S , since if the U.S was to have threated Japan like Germany, then believe me even the senkakus islands will have been under China or Taiwans control and the media will have made a big big deal of every of Japans war denials/shrine visits and condemned it severely. Japan is the last person who should be trying to aleniate the U.S. Since the U.S holds all the cards when it comes to Japan. You should know that, if not for the U.S south Korea will have already build/make an official declaration of Japan as a threat to its security on par with North Korea. So you should thank the U.S alot for the stability/cover it has provided to Japan.
Anyway fortunately im sure Majority of Japanese dont think like you, since having been there, they still view the U.S as their undisputable ally/patron, China/south korea are among the most hated.

So any talk of 'east asia community is laughable , Uncle sam will never allow it. its a non issue.

 

[Aepsilons]

Huh....as a japanese, are you supporting being partner/ally with China over the U.S?
You should know that Uncle Sam has helped Japan quite alot. From helping rebuilt Japan after the war, to forgiving/not judging Japanese war criminals, who were allowed to even keep their positions(e.g the emperor who was at the head of the japanese war machine), overlooking Japans visits of war criminals yakushini shrine, and sexual slavery denials etc. If anything Japan should be thankful to the U.S , since if the U.S was to have threated Japan like Germany, then believe me even the senkakus islands will have been under China or Taiwans control and the media will have made a big big deal of every of Japans war denials/shrine visits and condemned it severely. Japan is the last person who should be trying to aleniate the U.S. Since the U.S holds all the cards when it comes to Japan. You should know that, if not for the U.S south Korea will have already build/make an official declaration of Japan as a threat to its security on par with North Korea. So you should thank the U.S alot for the stability/cover it has provided to Japan.
Anyway fortunately im sure Majority of Japanese dont think like you, since having been there, they still view the U.S as their undisputable ally/patron, China/south korea is among the most hated.

So any talk of 'east asia community is laughable , Uncle sam will never allow it. its a non issue.

Why is it so wrong to talk about an East Asian Community? No need to panic, mike.

You're overreacting a bit too extremely.