Japan's economy to grind to a halt in 2nd quarter: JPMorgan

[Aepsilons]

LOL!

hey chinese bros, looks like Japan is back on track.

 

[TaiShang]

Long term trends are not questionable. But, short term is also important in terms of shedding light on future trends.

 

[cirr]

Why this news is a 180 degree contrast to this:

In fact, our economy grew 3.9% just on the 1st quarter alone.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/06/07/world/asia/ap-as-japan-economy.html?_r=0

3.9% growth annualised，NOT year-on-year。

This means that if Q1 is followed by a down Q2（which looks just that if April and May figures are anything to go by），the annualised H1 growth rate would look pretty bad。

 

[Economic superpower]

There will come a time in the not too distant future where Guangdong province will have a bigger economy than Japan.

 

[grand]

3.9% growth annualised，NOT year-on-year。

This means that if Q1 is followed by a down Q2（which looks just that if April and May figures are anything to go by），the annualised H1 growth rate would look pretty bad。

comparing to the 20% decline in the value of the yen, that so-called "growth" is meaningless.

 

[Aepsilons]

3.9% growth annualised，NOT year-on-year。

This means that if Q1 is followed by a down Q2（which looks just that if April and May figures are anything to go by），the annualised H1 growth rate would look pretty bad。

Q2 has barely even started, lol. Be optimistic, everything seems to point to that practicality.

 

[Aepsilons]

Well you should considering China is 10 x the size of Japan. But think of it this way, why is Japan, a tenth the size of China, have an economy that is roughly just half of China's? Hmm?

And our economy is growing....3.9%

Addendum: Mind you, as a super developed nation, growing at 3.9% is very very good. LOL!

 

[TaiShang]

Q2 has barely even started, lol. Be optimistic, everything seems to point to that practicality.

But that's despite the fact that you have a very cheap currency and are injecting tons of extra cash. Despite that, Japan's growth is stalled and exports are contracting. That's not a sign of healthy economy (but not necessarily a poor society). In that, I am afraid, Japan is in the same basket with your dear atatwolf. Turkey's exports are contracting while their money is losing value.

@cirr , @Economic superpower

 

[cirr]

Q2 has barely even started, lol. Be optimistic, everything seems to point to that practicality.

Q2 is OVER。You are in Q3 territory。

 

[Spectre]

Well you should considering China is 10 x the size of Japan. But think of it this way, why is Japan, a tenth the size of China, have an economy that is roughly just half of China's? Hmm?

And our economy is growing....3.9%

Addendum: Mind you, as a super developed nation, growing at 3.9% is very very good. LOL!

What Japan is doing right now is extremely smart. It's investing in emerging markets which has potential for high returns. This will be a major factor of Japanese growth in future

It's a given than an advanced economy with a demographic profile of Japan has minimal space to grow internally there is no need to rub their noses on this subject. @Nihonjin 1051 is correct when he says that China achieves the per capita income of Japanese, you would understand that there is simply no space to grow.

China itself does not have a great demographic profile due to its one child policy which would further compound the problem when it reaches Japanese levels of development.

 

[cirr]

But that's despite the fact that you have a very cheap currency and injecting money. Despite that, Japan's growth is stalled and exports are contracting. That's not a sign of healthy economy (but not necessarily a poor society). In that, I am afraid, Japan is in the same basket with your dear atatwolf. Turkey's exports are contracting while their money is losing value.

@cirr , @Economic superpower

Pls spare us the thought of Turkey or the Turks for that matter。The country and its people simply are NOT on our radar。

The Japanese government is highly indebted（the most in the world as a matter of fact）and it has to tread carefully through the mine field of a weak currency（needed for exports）、high inflation（needed to avoid stagnation or even deflation）、high interest rates（needed to check inflation when it does come）、huge interest payments、lless government spending and as a result，weak economic growth。

 

[Aepsilons]

My dear Cirr,

The thing with Japan is that we are indebted to ourselves. LOL.

We borrow none from foreigners because quite frankly Japan is the largest creditor nation in the world.



Japan foreign assets hit record $3.2 trln as top creditor nation| Reuters

LOL!!!

 

[TaiShang]

Pls spare us the thought of Turkey or the Turks for that matter。The country and its people simply are NOT on our radar。

The Japanese government is highly indebted（the most in the world as a matter of fact）and it has to tread carefully through the mine field of a weak currency（needed for exports）、high inflation（needed to avoid stagnation or even deflation）、high interest rates（needed to check inflation when it does come）、huge interest payments、lless government spending and as a result，weak economic growth。

Looks like being between a rock and hard place.

In 2013, Japanese public sector debt rose to one quadrillion yen ($10.28 trillion). In 2013, this was 227% of GDP. This is significantly more than several European countries like Greece (150% of GDP, Italy 112% of GDP, UK 77% of GDP).

In the most recent budget deficit, Japanese government borrowing accounted for 7% of GDP.

My dear Cirr,

The thing with Japan is that we are indebted to ourselves. LOL.

We borrow none from foreigners because quite frankly Japan is the largest creditor nation in the world.



Japan foreign assets hit record $3.2 trln as top creditor nation| Reuters

LOL!!!

China has pretty healthy foreign asset plus national saving. I guess that's export-driven country's feat. Even Taiwan has some 400billion USD reserves.

 

[grand]

Well you should considering China is 10 x the size of Japan. But think of it this way, why is Japan, a tenth the size of China, have an economy that is roughly just half of China's? Hmm?

the answer to your question is simple. japan became a US client state after ww2, and benefited enomously from the cold war, korean war and vietnam war. china spent a lot of energy and resources fighting the US during the cold war, korean war, and vietnam war. apart being a client state of the us, japanese themselves were hardworking intelligent people.

Addendum: Mind you, as a super developed nation, growing at 3.9% is very very good. LOL!

by devalueing the yen by more than 20%, that can hardly be called growth.

 

[Aepsilons]

Looks like being between a rock and hard place.

In 2013, Japanese public sector debt rose to one quadrillion yen ($10.28 trillion). In 2013, this was 227% of GDP. This is significantly more than several European countries like Greece (150% of GDP, Italy 112% of GDP, UK 77% of GDP).

In the most recent budget deficit, Japanese government borrowing accounted for 7% of GDP.

China has pretty healthy foreign asset plus national saving. I guess that's export-driven country's feat. Even Taiwan has some 400billion USD reserves.

My dear @TaiShang ,


Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio looks bad. But as economist Hazel Henderson notes, this is just a matter of accounting practice—a practice that she and other experts contend is misleading. Japan leads globally in most areas of high-tech manufacturing, including aerospace. The debt on the other side of its balance sheet represents the payoffs from all this productivity to the Japanese people.

According to Gary Shilling, writing on Bloomberg in June 2012, more than half of Japanese public spending goes for debt service and social security payments. Debt service is paid as interest to Japanese “savers.” Social security and interest on the national debt are not included in GDP, but these are actually the social safety net and public dividends of a highly productive economy. These, more than the military weapons and “financial products” that compose a major portion of U.S. GDP, are the real fruits of a nation’s industry. For Japan, they represent the enjoyment by the people of the enormous output of their high-tech industrial base.

China has pretty healthy foreign asset plus national saving. I guess that's export-driven country's feat. Even Taiwan has some 400billion USD reserves.

Japan's FOREX + Pension is over $3.5 Trillion (there are academics that would speculate it even higher at over $5 Trillion), @TaiShang . Mind you our economy is but a half of the PRC's.