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Japan unlikely to take up nuclear arms, expert says
Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, said Japan will not go down that road for two main reasons.
The first is psychological. Japan is the only country to have suffered a nuclear attack, which Tatsumi said is “something that carries over from generations to generations.”
On top of that, the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster reinforced the perception that nuclear power is unacceptably risky.
The second reason is a practical one. Even if Japan begins to develop nuclear weapons now, it will be very difficult to catch up to what North Korea has already achieved.
It would be wiser, she said, for Japan to invest in strengthening its missile defense systems, work closely with the United States and, hopefully, cooperate more closely with South Korea in sharing intelligence and other areas.
Tatsumi made the remarks during a question-and-answer session at a one-day international forum organized by Taiwan Thinktank, a research institute in Taipei.
She was asked to comment on the proposal made by the former commander of the U.S. Navy in the Pacific, Vice Adm. John Bird, that because Pyongyang is unlikely to give up its nuclear capability, Japan should develop nuclear weapons to prompt China to restrain its neighbor and ally.
Tatsumi said she does not think Japan will increase its activities unless it is provoked by Beijing’s increasing military strength.
She also said pressure from China will not persuade Japan to alter its behavior in the East China Sea, where the two are mired in a dispute over ownership of the Senkaku Islands.
“The Senkaku issue is a sovereignty issue,” she said, and Japan “will not back down.” She said that how Japan responds is being closely watched by the Philippines and Vietnam, which face similar challenges in the South China Sea.
“Japan’s behavior … gives a reassurance to the countries in Southeast Asia that you don’t have to cave and you shouldn’t cave,” she said.
On Taiwan-China relations, Stephen Young, a retired U.S. diplomat, said Chinese President Xi Jinping has been trying to bully Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, which Young said is “short-sighted.”
“I don’t think she’s that kind of person that can be bullied,” Young said. “China is making a mistake not to reach out to Taiwan.”
Young, former director of the American Institute in Taiwan, America’s de facto embassy in Taiwan, said the United States has a strong commitment to Taiwan, and it would be very foolish for China to test that.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...y-take-nuclear-arms-expert-says/#.W3KHpM4zbcs
Does Japan produce mass nuclear weapons? The answer is yes but they can not build an arsenal like China, it's like North Korea
- Japan has in its hands raw materials, technology enough to create more nuclear bombs, nuclear warheads, but the problem of capacity, ability to activate, the ability to put on missiles's Japan, not verified. , because if you do not test the ability to detonate, sometimes just launched explosive, or drop bombs do not explode or explode incompatible with the power of nuclear fission
- To build the nuclear weapons must be public, because it can not hide in the ground, plutonium production plants, nuclear treatment can not be placed in the ground, it requires air on the surface, home Heavy water is the same, and moreover, it can be concealed by special means such as magnetically detecting reconnaissance aircraft, which also know the location of factories hidden in the forest or the earth. The cost of maintenance, high maintenance, installation requirements, construction is extremely complex
Japan is also an earthquake country, a nuclear plant in the ground will cause a greater disaster, as if the Japanese ambition to beat if the mother of nature. Not to mention the case of radioactive leakage, heavy water, the ability to rescue extremely difficult when it is useless, in the end the hot earth (hotter summer), difficult to cool reactors, plants The actual nuclear reactors are always placed near the river and the sea to quickly pump the cooling water. An underground system to cool the reactor is extremely unsuccessful, with only a few construction tests. Incomplete. Do not compare it with the nuclear submarine, it itself has a water pump (also water from the Sub water it took) cooling the inside and the water environment scattered.
Ukraine is a clear demonstration of the difficulties for mass production of nuclear weapons and equipment
International experts also assess that, for nuclear weapons production, Ukraine will face many difficulties, especially technical issues, they are currently a lot of raw materials in the country however to turn They are not nuclear weapons.
Remember, Ukraine is one of the top 10 uranium producers in the world, with about 1,000 tons of output per year. Natural uranium contains 1% U235 - is one of the main components of the atomic bomb.
That means that with the annual output of the above mentioned, Ukraine could have about 10 tons of U235, with this volume they qualify to produce 100 atomic bombs.
Hard
But in addition to creating atomic bombs for Ukraine, the current means of transporting them is relatively small. At present, Ukraine does not have any bomber capable of throwing it to its designated location, except for Soviet-built Tu-16s, which were very buggy. time
Another problem is that with the current situation Ukraine will be very difficult to produce clean uranium or even they will need a lot of time to turn it into plutonium. In addition, two very important details are the electric shocks and neutron detectors they will have to buy somewhere, because to produce them takes a lot of time.
For the uranium mining in the current situation Ukraine is also relatively difficult. Remember that to operate them requires high-speed centrifuges, which are expensive to manufacture and difficult to override international monitoring organizations.
Ukraine can produce plutonium in the reactors of nuclear power plants. But to clean them need a factory with a large capacity but the current Ukraine has not yet. In addition, along with the chemical process, they will have to invest a lot of money in building the infrastructure.
So in the current situation Ukraine is difficult to meet this requirement. This means that Ukraine will not be able to think of developing its nuclear program
Other problems such as installation into ICBM, MIRV fabrication, load, altitude and range studies, the manufacture of explosive warheads, set on submarine or aircraft equipment should also be carefully studied.
Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, said Japan will not go down that road for two main reasons.
The first is psychological. Japan is the only country to have suffered a nuclear attack, which Tatsumi said is “something that carries over from generations to generations.”
On top of that, the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster reinforced the perception that nuclear power is unacceptably risky.
The second reason is a practical one. Even if Japan begins to develop nuclear weapons now, it will be very difficult to catch up to what North Korea has already achieved.
It would be wiser, she said, for Japan to invest in strengthening its missile defense systems, work closely with the United States and, hopefully, cooperate more closely with South Korea in sharing intelligence and other areas.
Tatsumi made the remarks during a question-and-answer session at a one-day international forum organized by Taiwan Thinktank, a research institute in Taipei.
She was asked to comment on the proposal made by the former commander of the U.S. Navy in the Pacific, Vice Adm. John Bird, that because Pyongyang is unlikely to give up its nuclear capability, Japan should develop nuclear weapons to prompt China to restrain its neighbor and ally.
Tatsumi said she does not think Japan will increase its activities unless it is provoked by Beijing’s increasing military strength.
She also said pressure from China will not persuade Japan to alter its behavior in the East China Sea, where the two are mired in a dispute over ownership of the Senkaku Islands.
“The Senkaku issue is a sovereignty issue,” she said, and Japan “will not back down.” She said that how Japan responds is being closely watched by the Philippines and Vietnam, which face similar challenges in the South China Sea.
“Japan’s behavior … gives a reassurance to the countries in Southeast Asia that you don’t have to cave and you shouldn’t cave,” she said.
On Taiwan-China relations, Stephen Young, a retired U.S. diplomat, said Chinese President Xi Jinping has been trying to bully Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, which Young said is “short-sighted.”
“I don’t think she’s that kind of person that can be bullied,” Young said. “China is making a mistake not to reach out to Taiwan.”
Young, former director of the American Institute in Taiwan, America’s de facto embassy in Taiwan, said the United States has a strong commitment to Taiwan, and it would be very foolish for China to test that.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...y-take-nuclear-arms-expert-says/#.W3KHpM4zbcs
Does Japan produce mass nuclear weapons? The answer is yes but they can not build an arsenal like China, it's like North Korea
- Japan has in its hands raw materials, technology enough to create more nuclear bombs, nuclear warheads, but the problem of capacity, ability to activate, the ability to put on missiles's Japan, not verified. , because if you do not test the ability to detonate, sometimes just launched explosive, or drop bombs do not explode or explode incompatible with the power of nuclear fission
- To build the nuclear weapons must be public, because it can not hide in the ground, plutonium production plants, nuclear treatment can not be placed in the ground, it requires air on the surface, home Heavy water is the same, and moreover, it can be concealed by special means such as magnetically detecting reconnaissance aircraft, which also know the location of factories hidden in the forest or the earth. The cost of maintenance, high maintenance, installation requirements, construction is extremely complex
Japan is also an earthquake country, a nuclear plant in the ground will cause a greater disaster, as if the Japanese ambition to beat if the mother of nature. Not to mention the case of radioactive leakage, heavy water, the ability to rescue extremely difficult when it is useless, in the end the hot earth (hotter summer), difficult to cool reactors, plants The actual nuclear reactors are always placed near the river and the sea to quickly pump the cooling water. An underground system to cool the reactor is extremely unsuccessful, with only a few construction tests. Incomplete. Do not compare it with the nuclear submarine, it itself has a water pump (also water from the Sub water it took) cooling the inside and the water environment scattered.
Ukraine is a clear demonstration of the difficulties for mass production of nuclear weapons and equipment
International experts also assess that, for nuclear weapons production, Ukraine will face many difficulties, especially technical issues, they are currently a lot of raw materials in the country however to turn They are not nuclear weapons.
Remember, Ukraine is one of the top 10 uranium producers in the world, with about 1,000 tons of output per year. Natural uranium contains 1% U235 - is one of the main components of the atomic bomb.
That means that with the annual output of the above mentioned, Ukraine could have about 10 tons of U235, with this volume they qualify to produce 100 atomic bombs.
Hard
But in addition to creating atomic bombs for Ukraine, the current means of transporting them is relatively small. At present, Ukraine does not have any bomber capable of throwing it to its designated location, except for Soviet-built Tu-16s, which were very buggy. time
Another problem is that with the current situation Ukraine will be very difficult to produce clean uranium or even they will need a lot of time to turn it into plutonium. In addition, two very important details are the electric shocks and neutron detectors they will have to buy somewhere, because to produce them takes a lot of time.
For the uranium mining in the current situation Ukraine is also relatively difficult. Remember that to operate them requires high-speed centrifuges, which are expensive to manufacture and difficult to override international monitoring organizations.
Ukraine can produce plutonium in the reactors of nuclear power plants. But to clean them need a factory with a large capacity but the current Ukraine has not yet. In addition, along with the chemical process, they will have to invest a lot of money in building the infrastructure.
So in the current situation Ukraine is difficult to meet this requirement. This means that Ukraine will not be able to think of developing its nuclear program
Other problems such as installation into ICBM, MIRV fabrication, load, altitude and range studies, the manufacture of explosive warheads, set on submarine or aircraft equipment should also be carefully studied.
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