American strike on Iran is out of turn
February 9, 2012
　　For some time, reports on tit-for-tat confrontations between the US and Iran had flooded the headlines of major international media. However, since February 5 till now, US president Barack Obama has suddenly lowered his voice claiming that a war in the Gulf will be destructive and possibility still exists in solving the crisis through diplomacy. In fact, the US has knocked down several adversaries including the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya by means of war since the end of Cold War. Why does it not want to do the same this time?
　　In terms of time, the US is not yet ready for a war. The financial crisis starting from 2008 has pushed US fiscal deficit and unemployment rate to a new height, a much worse situation than it was before the Iraq war. If the US starts a war against Iran now, the presidential election at the end of the year will be adversely affected once the military operations go wrong, which is a situation that any US administration would take seriously.
　　Considering the strength of the adversary, the US will not act rashly. With over 400,000 regular forces and 130,000 Revolutionary Guards that have relatively strong fighting capacity, Iran has a military power only second to Israel and Turkey in the Middle East. Its medium-range ballistic missiles can cover the whole Israel and attack US troops in the neighboring areas, quite a deterrent as they are.
　　Iran also has a “trump card”: Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, the only channel linking the Gulf and the Indian Ocean, and attack all oil and gas facilities, tankers and oil pipelines in the Middle East. This “lose-lose” situation is the thing the US is not willing to see as a major oil importer.
　　Furthermore, the US and Israel have not yet got accurate and complete information about the location of Iran’s nuclear facilities; therefore, they find it hard to jointly launch “surgical” attacks to Iran’s facilities as they did to Iraq’s in 1981.
　　It is hard for the US to find war allies given the viewpoint from the international community. Currently, Russia, Japan, South Korea and the EU all stand against attacking Iran for their own economic and political interests. As to Israel, its officials claimed recently that Israel will launch military strikes to Iran this spring if Iran is still not willing to give up its nuclear plans, but it is no more than pressing and blustering without US approval.
　　Undoubtedly, to wage a war or not is merely a choice of means for the US, for its purpose remains unchanged. Judging by appearance, the US wants to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but judging by essentials, the US is determined to suppress anti-America forces and safeguard its interests of global hegemony.
