Is the moment of truth upon us?

[Vapnope]

Our incumbent govt seems clueless to about Afghanistan and the potential outcomes and i am not sure what is army's contingency plan. DG ISPR said they have secured the western border (Probably from a conventional standpoint) however we continue to see subconvential threat from Afghanistan and our usual response is to duck and wait.
I really hope (Overly optimistic here) that Taliban hand over TTP terrorists to us and do not bring ideological connection in between.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

U have to keep them relying on u to secure ur national interests? If that's true, then ur national interests are childish and pathetic. Countries dont rely on a single port or single country. Pakistan itself has larger population than Afghanistan and whole central asian countries combined, so why so insecure? A chabahar port threatens u? Afghanistan link with india and iran threatens u? Thats the typical gangu mentality that we have in Pakistan too. Please dont talk about topics u have no idea about and stick to playing with toy planes.

What threatens me is the indifference of TTA towards Pakistani demands vis a vis TTP in Afghanistan once we lose leverage over Afghanistan as a transit state as it explores new avenues to access the sea shipping routes. It is best if we conduct this exchange within the ambit of civility and humility. This is a discussion forum where Pakistanis could discuss ideas. Let us allow the discussions to continue in a cordial environment and hear each other with patience.

 

[Sifar zero]

It hurts to say this, but realpolitik is not a slave to human ethics and morality. I wish it were, but it isn't. If your enemy plays dirty, you play dirtier; that's how you establish deterrence.

But the leaders we have that is not possible.
Both Bajwa and Imran fear a outspoken and annoying community that actually does know anything about real life.
In summary Bajwa and Imran both fear Patwaris,Jiyalas and Surkhas not to forget the stone age PTM.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Secured the Western border when

Our incumbent govt seems clueless to about Afghanistan and the potential outcomes and i am not sure what is army's contingency plan. DG ISPR said they have secured the western border (Probably from a conventional standpoint) however we continue to see subconvential threat from Afghanistan and our usual response is to duck and wait.
I really hope (Overly optimistic here) that Taliban hand over TTP terrorists to us and do not bring ideological connection in between.

3-4 fire raids have taken place within the past 3 days from Afghanistan? perhaps the definition of "security" has become highly subjective. The security establishment's view on it appears to be quite Laissez-faire in the face of morale-sapping high attrition rates. I am deeply troubled by the latest statements made by Zabeeh Ullah Mujahid.




.

But the leaders we have that is not possible.
Both Bajwa and Imran fear a outspoken and annoying community that actually does know anything about real life.
In summary Bajwa and Imran both fear Patwaris,Jiyalas and Surkhas not to forget the stone age PTM.

I meant retribution for our external foes.

 

[Protest_again]

I think TTA would not take sides between India and Pakistan. Taliban do realise that if India provides its acceptance of the regime, it carries more legitimacy in the world than any Pakistan can provide them. And If Indians loosen their purse a bit, it could turn if not all, a part of Afghan administration in its favor. However if Pakistan thinks China would counter India in Afghanistan, then they are living in fools paradise. As any investment in Afghanistan by China would be far more safer with more and more economies investing in Afghanistan than otherwise. So China would in fact welcome such investment. Pakistan should realise that there are no friends in geopolitics just interests. And absolutely nobody will fight for you at their expense.

 

[TNT]

What threatens me is the indifference of TTA towards Pakistani demands vis a vis TTP in Afghanistan once we lose leverage over Afghanistan as a transit state as it explores new avenues to access the sea shipping routes. It is best if we conduct this exchange within the ambit of civility and humility. This is a discussion forum where Pakistanis could discuss ideas. Let us allow the discussions to continue in a cordial environment and hear each other with patience.

I guess one should have the ability to see things rationally and not act like a jealous ex. TTA are not in a position to address demands at the moment. As a country they will have relations with all and woukd not want to exist as a puppet of Pakistan. Infact ur own generals and politicians are dying to have good relations with india, short of begging, they have tried everything to befriend india, including abandoning kashmir freedom movement support. Also no country would want to rely on a single country. Afghanistan would not want to fully rely on Pakistan for sea access, neither would they want to fully rely on iran. Stop thinking everything is a zero sum game.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

I think TTA would not take sides between India and Pakistan. Taliban do realise that if India provides its acceptance of the regime, it carries more legitimacy in the world than any Pakistan can provide them. And If Indians loosen their purse a bit, it could turn if not all, a part of Afghan administration in its favor. However if Pakistan thinks China would counter India in Afghanistan, then they are living in fools paradise. As any investment in Afghanistan by China would be far more safer with more and more economies investing in Afghanistan than otherwise. So China would in fact welcome such investment. Pakistan should realise that there are no friends in geopolitics just interests. And absolutely nobody will fight for you at their expense.

Incorrect premise. Nobody expects the talis to fight on our behalf with India. We can handle our Eastern neighbor. We just expect them to not allow TTP to use the Afghan territory as a launching pad for mischief across our Western border. We can focus on the Eastern front once the Western border is pacified. You missed the plot altogether. Indians have the habit of believing in their own lies, the biggest one going around these days is Pakistani grand design where talis are to fight for Pakistan in Kashmir. Furthest from the truth.

I guess one should have the ability to see things rationally and not act like a jealous ex. TTA are not in a position to address demands at the moment. As a country they will have relations with all and woukd not want to exist as a puppet of Pakistan. Infact ur own generals and politicians are dying to have good relations with india, short of begging, they have tried everything to befriend india, including abandoning kashmir freedom movement support. Also no country would want to rely on a single country. Afghanistan would not want to fully rely on Pakistan for sea access, neither would they want to fully rely on iran. Stop thinking everything is a zero sum game.

When would they be in the position to meet our demands? Secondly, do you believe expecting that a neighbor's soil not be used against you and using your influence towards that end is equivalent to making the regime there your puppet? Is it not a just demand? If it is, how come you reach the conclusion that we are trying to convert the talis into our puppets? I hope you have cogent responses to these questions since you carry the torch of rationality here.
A clarification:

When I talk about leverage over TTA/Afghanistan, that is only in the context of not allowing TTP to operate from Afghan territory. I must not be mistaken as someone who believes in interfering in the affairs/internal politics or power struggles in neighboring countries.

 

[H!TchHiker]

I think TTA would not take sides between India and Pakistan. Taliban do realise that if India provides its acceptance of the regime, it carries more legitimacy in the world than any Pakistan can provide them. And If Indians loosen their purse a bit, it could turn if not all, a part of Afghan administration in its favor. However if Pakistan thinks China would counter India in Afghanistan, then they are living in fools paradise. As any investment in Afghanistan by China would be far more safer with more and more economies investing in Afghanistan than otherwise. So China would in fact welcome such investment. Pakistan should realise that there are no friends in geopolitics just interests. And absolutely nobody will fight for you at their expense.

Many will not agree ...but what you are saying is right ..there are no friends it's just geopolitics interest ...IEA really serious about indian recognition.all there statements are indian friendly ..it's only some living in fool paradise thinks that Taliban somehow care about kahsmir or something like this .what Pakistan needs to make sure is there soil not used by TTP....I am afraid our relation with them will not be much friendly as we perceived if we really goes after our interest ..though we hold more relevance only because of our geography..should we really serious about ttp , taliban will listen since Pakistan have many options too..the only reason Pakistan prefers them is previous regime were openly hostile and creating unrest here

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

they are not dumb..what will they do if USA invades Iran tomorrow or Iran gets itself a new revolution that abhors Talban or Iran - Afghanistan relations break down. They will never rely on a single transit.

What threatens me is the indifference of TTA towards Pakistani demands vis a vis TTP in Afghanistan once we lose leverage over Afghanistan as a transit state as it explores new avenues to access the sea shipping routes. It is best if we conduct this exchange within the ambit of civility and humility. This is a discussion forum where Pakistanis could discuss ideas. Let us allow the discussions to continue in a cordial environment and hear each other with patience.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Many will not agree ...but what you are saying is right ..there are no friends it's just geopolitics interest ...IEA really serious about indian recognition.all there statements are indian friendly ..it's only some living in fool paradise thinks that Taliban somehow care about kahsmir or something like this .what Pakistan needs to make sure is there soil not used by TTP....I am afraid our relation with them will not be much friendly as we perceived if we really goes after our interest ..though we hold more relevance only because of our geography..should we really serious about ttp , taliban will listen since Pakistan have many options too..the only reason Pakistan prefers them is previous regime were openly hostile and creating unrest here

No sane person expects TTA to be our mercenary force fighting our wars in Kashmir. The only thing we expect is that the territory they control should not be used against Pakistan. Expecting that is a just demand/expectation.

they are not dumb..what will they do if USA invades Iran tomorrow or Iran gets its new revolution or Iran - Afghanistan relations break down. They will never rely on a single transit.

Let me rephrase the scenario. In the event TTA does not take action against TTP that continues using Afghan territory against us, what should the Pakistani response be? Should we graduate our response to creating hurdles in Afghan trade until we receive compliance? Would TTA be inclined to giving in in the face of such arm twisting if it has other options? This is what I am getting at. All these scenarios should be thought about as these are very much within the realm of possibility and the statements emanating out of Afghanistan are vague at best at the moment with no practical action. Only the promise of some border control mechanism at an undefined point in the future. They even expressed concerns about fencing in Hum Pushto interview recently. Are these signs positive? In these circumstances, we have to think about the extent of our leverage and possible options.

 

[H!TchHiker]

No sane person expects TTA to be our mercenary force fighting our wars in Kashmir. The only thing we expect is that the territory they control should not be used against Pakistan. Expecting that is a just demand/expectation.

That is our weakness too ..we just need to inform them in case things continue like this after they formed a government Pakistan shall close the borders if they don't act ...there spokesperson already said our people against fencing of border ..while there weak response on ttp is quite visible ...it's upto our regime now ...I think we need to wait ..they might uphold there statement of not allowing to be used by anyone otherwise ...our soldiers will continue to die on border by attacks and we will issue statement..policy of appeasement never works ...only thing is no more money for PTM by IEA ...

 

[Protest_again]

No sane person expects TTA to be our mercenary force fighting our wars in Kashmir. The only thing we expect is that the territory they control should not be used against Pakistan. Expecting that is a just demand/expectation.

Pakistan just needs to work at balancing its relationship with tribal areas and eliminate the support for TTP. Even as Taliban came to power, I am not sure they can control all groups within their country. They would have their hands full trying to legitimise their rule than worry about eliminating TTP. India just need to funnel the money to such orgs.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

That is our weakness too ..we just need to inform them and close the borders if they don't act ...there spokesperson already said our people against fencing of border ..while there weak response on ttp is quite visible ...it's upto our regime now ...I think going forward it will continue like this ...our soldiers will continue to die on border by attacks and we will issue statement..policy of appeasement never works ...only thing is no more money for PTM by IEA ...

PTM is not an existential threat. Let us not give it undue attention. TTP is a big law and order challenge. It has the potential to send signals of instability to the world. As I said above, we need FDI to break the shackles. Law and order situation led instability is a poison in these scenarios.

 

[H!TchHiker]

PTM is not an existential threat. Let us not give it undue attention. TTP is a big law and order challenge. It has the potential to send signals of instability to the world. As I said above, we need FDI to break the shackles. Law and order situation led instability is a poison in these scenarios.

We shall wait ..once they establish a government we need to be clear with them and no to recognize them before they uphold there promise ..
We need to give them time after all we faced previous regime for too long also

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Should we graduate our response to creating hurdles in Afghan trade until we receive compliance?

lol why should we shut the trade? why make common people suffer for that.
if Talban dont do anything about TTP on their land(which i doubt will not happen and Talban will assist) then Pakistan Army can go inside Afghanistan and take care of TTP themselves like it has done in past.But Pakistan has to make sure there are no local sleeper cells and its writ stand well locally. Cant blame the other side if our own house is in mess.