Is India really growing faster than China?

[el che]

English is what tie the people of India together. Indian constitution is written in English. This only say that without English, India will not be a country at all. It's historical past is a lie created by Indian government. This is like an European government telling Europeans that Europe has always been one country because of their shared Christian belief and that they are divided all these time because internal civil wars and WWI and WWII were just civil wars.They would point to Roman Empire that Europe has always been one country. Do you hear how rediculous that sound? But Indian government pulled that off with people of India with the assistance of British colonialism. India need to look pass this lies and reject India as a nation in order to start progressing. It's time for each India state to start their own version of Brexit.

Fortunately many Indians are practical and subcontinent is not Europe. With hostile neighbours instead of being Europe India will turn into Afghanistan. So it is not ridiculous. That's why in a country of 1.3 billion of there is no separatist tendency at the moment. May be after India has a per capita income more than 10,000 USD we will see some like Soviets. India will stitch together with its English language and grow in her own way at her own pace. Not like any other country.

 

[randomradio]

I'm quoting an article from 1997, it's not wise to quote today's number, on which both countries have witnessed progress.

I know, but the differences are much closer than before. A 80+ years life expectancy and 95+% literacy rate are about 10-15 years away.

There would be no difference if Indian farmers come to the city but cannot enjoy the social welfare and education of the city, bring how many relatives is irrelevant. In China, migrant workers come to China and their kids enjoy the same high-level public education. The urbanization rate speaks everything. And China's village and county-owned corporations are very prosperous. The countryside of China enjoys a much higher level of development than India's relatively developed urban regions.

But how was it in say, 1990? You can't compare China in the last 5-10 years to India today, the economies are entirely different and so is the govt structure. Nor are the conditions the same, India is growing as a population much faster than China. Over the next 30 years we could add 500 million more people while China could shrink.

In 1990, China's population was 1.13 billion, India's was 890 million. Today it's 1.35B for China and 1.25B for India.

So India is not managed like China at all. India's most successful corporations are in the private sector, China's private sector is very weak compared to the size of China's economy. Even your largest private sector corporations run only one or a max of two sectors while Indian companies are massive conglomerates running in almost every sector. In 15-20 years we will have companies that will have revenues the size of countries like today's Europe. So village and county owned corporations will never survive in such an environment. What may have taken over 20 years for your govt to develop in China, the private sector in India will just do it in 5. So what is village and county corporations for you will be our startups in small and medium scale businesses.

 

[AndrewJin]

I know, but the differences are much closer than before. A 80+ years life expectancy and 95+% literacy rate are about 10-15 years away.



But how was it in say, 1990? You can't compare China in the last 5-10 years to India today, the economies are entirely different and so is the govt structure. Nor are the conditions the same, India is growing as a population much faster than China. Over the next 30 years we could add 500 million more people while China could shrink.

In 1990, China's population was 1.13 billion, India's was 890 million. Today it's 1.35B for China and 1.25B for India.

So India is not managed like China at all. India's most successful corporations are in the private sector, China's private sector is very weak compared to the size of China's economy. Even your largest private sector corporations run only one or a max of two sectors while Indian companies are massive conglomerates running in almost every sector. In 15-20 years we will have companies that will have revenues the size of countries like today's Europe. So village and county owned corporations will never survive in such an environment. What may have taken over 20 years for your govt to develop in China, the private sector in India will just do it in 5. So what is village and county corporations for you will be our startups in small and medium scale businesses.

500 million more people is bad news for your nation.
In the era of the ongoing technological revolution, there is no such term as demographic dividend.
China's private sector overall is way stronger than India's, Huawei, Alibaba, Baidu, Lenovo, BYD, DJI, BBK, Midea, Sany, Wanda(the one which is buying cinemas around the world), etc, are all private.

btw, you have no idea what is county-level economy....
China's most developed provinces succeed because of booming private sector.
And the foundation is county-level economy based on private companies.
You assemble phones in india, high-profit components are all from these places where life expectancy is over 80 year old.

Two random counties in Zhejiang Province, will be a one trillion dollar economy in 2020.

 

[sweetgrape]

I know, but the differences are much closer than before. A 80+ years life expectancy and 95+% literacy rate are about 10-15 years away.



But how was it in say, 1990? You can't compare China in the last 5-10 years to India today, the economies are entirely different and so is the govt structure. Nor are the conditions the same, India is growing as a population much faster than China. Over the next 30 years we could add 500 million more people while China could shrink.

In 1990, China's population was 1.13 billion, India's was 890 million. Today it's 1.35B for China and 1.25B for India.

So India is not managed like China at all. India's most successful corporations are in the private sector, China's private sector is very weak compared to the size of China's economy. Even your largest private sector corporations run only one or a max of two sectors while Indian companies are massive conglomerates running in almost every sector. In 15-20 years we will have companies that will have revenues the size of countries like today's Europe. So village and county owned corporations will never survive in such an environment. What may have taken over 20 years for your govt to develop in China, the private sector in India will just do it in 5. So what is village and county corporations for you will be our startups in small and medium scale businesses.

You comment is filled with speculation, it is very indian wishful dream, if it worked as you said, you indian should be much better than China, as least in economy.

 

[AndrewJin]

India in my opinion needs a very strong govt or a benevolent dictator. Vote politics is problem here. Politicians take the advantage of the religious, caste, ethnic, linguistic differences. The result is absence of strong reforms which may seem to be harsh for some people but is necessary for long term development. Especially in a country like India with limited land. But things are improving though slowly and we will see change in future.

Governments should adopt meritocracy in my opinion.
All officials are chosen based on their capability not by how fancy their promises are.

How Social Darwinism Made Modern China: A thousand years of meritocracy shaped the Middle Kingdom.
The resume of the governor or Wuhan City and Chinese president

 

[randomradio]

500 million more people is bad news for your nation. In the era of the ongoing technological revolution, there is no such term as demographic dividend.

It depends. At worst liabilities, at best consumers. So it depends on how quickly they become middle class citizens over the next 10-15 years.

India does not have a production background, but India's middle class has grown riding on the services industry and most of the GDP comes from domestic consumption. India's current objective is to push the entire population into middle class before 2030. If the population enters middle class, then it comes down to how well educated they become.

So an additional 500 million middle class population is going to be a huge boost to the economy, not a drain.

In India, GDP growth is not the state's responsibility, delivering reforms and creating platforms for growth is. So their biggest goal will be to rein in inflation and provide liquidity in the market, apart from developing infrastructure. You see, even if we get China level FDI into manufacturing, it still won't be at 25% of the GDP after 2025 because our services will continue growing faster than the industry.

China's private sector overall is way stronger than India's, Huawei, Alibaba, Baidu, Lenovo, BYD, DJI, BBK, Midea, Sany, Wanda(the one which is buying cinemas around the world), etc, are all private.

btw, you have no idea what is county-level economy....
China's most developed provinces succeed because of booming private sector.
And the foundation is county-level economy based on private companies.
You assemble phones in india, high-profit components are all from these places where life expectancy is over 80 year old.

Two random counties in Zhejiang Province, will be a one trillion dollar economy in 2020.

I never said your private sector is weak in anyway, I said it is not as big as it should have actually been. For example, in the next 10 years, our private sector will be rivaling today's Walmart and Apple in revenues, whereas your private sector companies are still very small in comparison. In 20 years, you can say the Tata Group will be as big as today's UK.

I mean, your largest private sector company makes a revenue of $45B, while Tata already exceeds $100B. That's from a $11.5T economy versus a $2T economy. Pretty big difference there.

As for county level, my bad I didn't get what you said earlier, I though you were referring to local govt measures, but my explanation has not changed, ours will be led by small and medium scale industries. But our conglomerates are pan-India.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_and_medium-sized_enterprises

In fact, the govt is working to completely erode state level businesses and make them all pan-India through the GST.

 

[Echo_419]

Governments should adopt meritocracy in my opinion.
All officials are chosen based on their capability not by how fancy their promises are.

How Social Darwinism Made Modern China: A thousand years of meritocracy shaped the Middle Kingdom.
The resume of the governor or Wuhan City and Chinese president

That's the problem you see, in every country there is a good portion of the population which wants to enjoy the pleasures of life on someone's expense. The problem with Democracy is that even the most powerful politicians become Spineless. You must understand that we are the 1st big country in the world trying to become a developed country by using the Democratic setup.

 

[randomradio]

You comment is filled with speculation, it is very indian wishful dream, if it worked as you said, you indian should be much better than China, as least in economy.

How did you infer this from my post?

What you say doesn't make sense considering per capita differences are large.

 

[AndrewJin]

That's the problem you see, in every country there is a good portion of the population which wants to enjoy the pleasures of life on someone's expense. The problem with Democracy is that even the most powerful politicians become Spineless. You must understand that we are the 1st big country in the world trying to become a developed country by using the Democratic setup.

Good luck
All those so-called developed countries were not so democratic when they built railways and found industries decades ago.
You are really trying to create an unprecedented way!

 

[Echo_419]

Good luck
All those so-called developed countries were not so democratic when they built railways and found industries decades ago.
You are really trying to create an unprecedented way!

It's the only way, there is no other way for us. But I think we have a good chance in bagging the developed country tag by sometime around 2050, if the current trajectory is maintained.
Not everyone is as lucky as the Chinese who just happen to get a very good government

 

[AndrewJin]

It's the only way, there is no other way for us. But I think we have a good chance in bagging the developed country tag by sometime around 2050, if the current trajectory is maintained.
Not everyone is as lucky as the Chinese who just happen to get a very good government

Hope you get more Modi!
How long can he be the PM of India?
Any limit? Like in China, 2 terms (10 years) is the rule for any level governors.

 

[Echo_419]

Hope you get more Modi!
How long can he be the PM of India?
Any limit? Like in China, 2 terms (10 years) are the rules for any level governors.

No limit on the number of terms he can get, most probably he will rule till 2024 and then one of his trusted comrade will replace him, that is if they win all the coming Elections.

 

[randomradio]

Hope you get more Modi!
How long can he be the PM of India?
Any limit? Like in China, 2 terms (10 years) is the rule for any level governors.

No such restriction for Indian PMs. Modi has had four terms as Gujarat's CM, in his first term he resigned in just 1 year. Hopefully he gets three or four terms as the PM. But even two terms will do wonders.

 

[UKBengali]

It's the only way, there is no other way for us. But I think we have a good chance in bagging the developed country tag by sometime around 2050, if the current trajectory is maintained.
Not everyone is as lucky as the Chinese who just happen to get a very good government

Developed is far too far away to think about.
Have you any idea of the technogical breakthroughs that you will have to keep making
to develop 1.5 billion people when there is such a limit on the natural resources on the planet?

Try to become middle income around 2035 for a start.

 

[AndrewJin]

No limit on the number of terms he can get, most probably he will rule till 2024 and then one of his trusted comrade will replace him, that is if they win all the coming Elections.

How old is he?
I think if his health is OK, he can handle more terms....Though in China, there is compulsory retirement age for different levels of governors.

You know, policies in India are not really consistent over different leaders.
His substitute must really understand his ideology, otherwise, he himself should work longer!

Developed is far too far away to think about.
Have you any idea of the technogical breakthroughs that you will have to keep making
to develop 1.5 billion people when there is such a limit on the natural resources on the planet?

Try to become middle income around 2035 for a start.

Indeed, China is working very very hard and investing huge money on transforming our industries.
There is no way back!

Sydney metro's TBM, from China!