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HOW significant would the death of Baitullah Mehsud, the supreme leader of the Pakistani Taliban, be to the fortunes of Pakistan? According to American and Pakistani officials, Mr Mehsud was probably killed in South Waziristan tribal area on Wednesday August 5th by an American missile fired from an unmanned aircraft. It is thought that he died in the attack along with his wife and bodyguards. Pakistans foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, suggests that to be 100% sure, we are going for ground verification. However, even with the use of DNA sampling, it may be impossible to be confirm that he has been killed.
Mr Mehsud, who in 2007 declared himself to be the leader of the Pakistan Taliban, a group of around 13 factions in the northwest, was a formidable opponent and a serious threat. He was chiefly responsible for the suicide-blasts that have ripped through the countrys main cities in recent years, terrorising Pakistanis and banishing foreign investors. The Americans placed a $5m dollar bounty on him, but his position appeared relatively secure, as he was backed by a bellicose tribe in remote terrain. The CIA and Pakistans former military ruler, Pervez Musharraf, accused him of being behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, in December 2007, but he denied it.
Over the years he proved to be a formidable opponent of the Pakistani army. A former gym instructor, he was one of the last tribal militant commanders with whom the armed forces parleyed and even earned the title of good Taliban from one general. But he also led his militants in a guerrilla war that pushed much of the army out of South Waziristan, at one time capturing more than 200 soldiers captive on a single day, holding them hostage for several months. Mr Mehsud did not send soldiers to fight coalition forces inside Afghanistan (his territory was not contiguous with the Afghan border) preferring to attack Pakistani forces. The Pakistani army accused India of providing him with support.
In 2008 he survived an attack by Pakistani forces, who had corralled him in his fief and appeared poised to capture or kill him. Instead, it appears that the army high-command struck a deal for him to escape. Over the years, by keeping ever more dubious company, he generated a lengthening list of enemies. American intelligence officers accused him of hosting al-Qaedas operational headquarters in his stronghold. He was also associated with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a Punjabi sectarian group that has provided al-Qaeda's recruits in Pakistan, along with Uzbeks and other Central Asian fighters. One of his lieutenants, Qari Hussain, a particularly barbarous individual, became adept at turning young Pakistanis into suicide bombers.
His death would be a cause for great celebration within the Pakistan, demonstrating that the Talibans leaders are vulnerable to the combined efforts of Pakistani and American forces. The army had been blockading his area with at least six brigades of infantry. These may continue to try to strangle his network, rather than carry out a big ground offensive in difficult terrain.
For the past three months the army has waged a campaign against militants in Swat Valley (farther north), but had failed to kill or capture any important leaders. For the United States, the death of Mr Mehsud would not directly influence the conflict within Afghanistan but matters given his role in spreading instability within Pakistan.
Among militants within Pakistan operating in the tribal areas, the death of Mr Mehsud would open the field for machinations. Senior militants from his umbrella group Tehreek-e-Taliban were said by locals to be gathering in his South Waziristan after his reported death. It is unclear what influence the Taliban in Afghanistan might have. Some analysts suggest that he had fallen foul of the Taliban leader in Afghanistan, Mullah Omar. Mr Mehsud became the most iconic Pakistani Taliban leader but like his predecessor, Nek Mohammed, who was killed by a missile strike, he will be replaced by another tribal militant pursuing jihad, loot or renown.
Pakistan and the Taliban: Is he dead? | The Economist
Mr Mehsud, who in 2007 declared himself to be the leader of the Pakistan Taliban, a group of around 13 factions in the northwest, was a formidable opponent and a serious threat. He was chiefly responsible for the suicide-blasts that have ripped through the countrys main cities in recent years, terrorising Pakistanis and banishing foreign investors. The Americans placed a $5m dollar bounty on him, but his position appeared relatively secure, as he was backed by a bellicose tribe in remote terrain. The CIA and Pakistans former military ruler, Pervez Musharraf, accused him of being behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, in December 2007, but he denied it.
Over the years he proved to be a formidable opponent of the Pakistani army. A former gym instructor, he was one of the last tribal militant commanders with whom the armed forces parleyed and even earned the title of good Taliban from one general. But he also led his militants in a guerrilla war that pushed much of the army out of South Waziristan, at one time capturing more than 200 soldiers captive on a single day, holding them hostage for several months. Mr Mehsud did not send soldiers to fight coalition forces inside Afghanistan (his territory was not contiguous with the Afghan border) preferring to attack Pakistani forces. The Pakistani army accused India of providing him with support.
In 2008 he survived an attack by Pakistani forces, who had corralled him in his fief and appeared poised to capture or kill him. Instead, it appears that the army high-command struck a deal for him to escape. Over the years, by keeping ever more dubious company, he generated a lengthening list of enemies. American intelligence officers accused him of hosting al-Qaedas operational headquarters in his stronghold. He was also associated with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a Punjabi sectarian group that has provided al-Qaeda's recruits in Pakistan, along with Uzbeks and other Central Asian fighters. One of his lieutenants, Qari Hussain, a particularly barbarous individual, became adept at turning young Pakistanis into suicide bombers.
His death would be a cause for great celebration within the Pakistan, demonstrating that the Talibans leaders are vulnerable to the combined efforts of Pakistani and American forces. The army had been blockading his area with at least six brigades of infantry. These may continue to try to strangle his network, rather than carry out a big ground offensive in difficult terrain.
For the past three months the army has waged a campaign against militants in Swat Valley (farther north), but had failed to kill or capture any important leaders. For the United States, the death of Mr Mehsud would not directly influence the conflict within Afghanistan but matters given his role in spreading instability within Pakistan.
Among militants within Pakistan operating in the tribal areas, the death of Mr Mehsud would open the field for machinations. Senior militants from his umbrella group Tehreek-e-Taliban were said by locals to be gathering in his South Waziristan after his reported death. It is unclear what influence the Taliban in Afghanistan might have. Some analysts suggest that he had fallen foul of the Taliban leader in Afghanistan, Mullah Omar. Mr Mehsud became the most iconic Pakistani Taliban leader but like his predecessor, Nek Mohammed, who was killed by a missile strike, he will be replaced by another tribal militant pursuing jihad, loot or renown.
Pakistan and the Taliban: Is he dead? | The Economist