Iran's New Oil Discovery May Be In Azerbaijan's Waters

[Surenas]

Iran recently announced that it has discovered a substantial oil deposit -- about 10 billion barrels -- in the Caspian Sea. That would be about seven percent of Iran's total reserves, and the country's first discovery in the Caspian in over a century. That in itself is pretty remarkable; Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said it will "change the energy and political balance of the region."

But the situation could get a lot more complicated, according to regional analyst Alex Jackson. In a recent presentation, which he provided to The Bug Pit, Jackson noted that the discovery appears to actually be in waters claimed by Azerbaijan. Iran hasn't provided a precise location, but has said it is 188km north of Roudsar in Gilan province and 250 km northwest of Neka. See the map here, from Jackson's presentation, where the white dotted line is what Azerbaijan considers to be the southern boundary of its waters, while the brown dotted line represents what Iran considers to be the northen extent of its waters. And right in the middle of that is this new discovery (actually two separate, though connected, fields, called Sardar Jangal and Sardar Milli). In addition to the 10 billion barrels of oil, it also holds 50 trillion cubic feet of gas, according to Iran.

The rig that discovered the oil, the Alborz, happens to be the same one that figured into a standoff between Azerbaijan and Iran in 2009. In that incident, recall, Azerbaijani officials reported that the Alborz was prospecting for oil in waters that they considered theirs. The Wikileaks cables that reported on the incident didn't specify the precise location, but given this recently announced discovery was apparently made in early 2010, it seems reasonable to believe that it is the same thing.

Jackson notes that there are reasons for skepticism on Iran's claims, that there has been little evidence provided of the discovery and that it could be an "attempt to maintain international interest and project an air of confidence." Still, if it is true, it could have several significant effects, he says:

-- If the claim is true, it could cause a political crisis with Azerbaijan over the border
-- Maritime tensions are likely to rise in light of increased militarisation and other points of stress in the relationship
-- The issue may provoke a broader push (led by Russia) to force Iran into accepting the common position on the Caspian
-- Other options: a demand for joint sharing of resources; a call for a moratorium on developing disputed fields.

So far Azerbaijan hasn't publicly said anything about this new discovery. This could be because Azerbaijan's government, prone to overheated military bluster directed towards Armenia, is worried that it will be exposed as a paper tiger if it tries that with Iran.The cables describing the 2009 tension reported that one Azerbaijani official said the country "lacked the ability to mount a significant military response. 'You know our military capacity on our borders. We do not have enough capacity.'" Another added that "'sometimes we prefer to close our eyes,' because possible courses of action appear difficult or unpalatable." That may still be the case today

Iran's New Oil Discovery May Be In Azerbaijan's Waters | EurasiaNet.org

 

[kollang]

مرتيكه اشغال تو دست از خيانت به كشورت نميخواي برداري؟

 

[IranZamin]

Wtf is wrong with this guy, posting whole time anti Iran articles. get a life dude

مرتيكه اشغال تو دست از خيانت به كشورت نميخواي برداري؟

agha, man migam choobe seft to oonjash konim ?

 

[Surenas]

Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[kollang]

Wtf is wrong with this guy, posting whole time anti Iran articles. get a life dude

agha, man migam choobe seft to oonjash konim ?

فقط چوب سفت؟؟؟؟؟؟؟

 

[IranZamin]

Don't shoot the messenger.

we dont shoot. we ''rid'' in messenger mouth

فقط چوب سفت؟؟؟؟؟؟؟

LOL. batom ham khobe

 

[Surenas]

we dont shoot. we ''rid'' in messenger mouth

Yes, I know you have weird fetishes.

Back ontopic now.

 

[kollang]

we dont shoot. we ''rid'' in messenger mouth

LOL. batom ham khobe

فقط باتوم؟؟؟؟

 

[longbrained]

If this is true then it is very unfortunate. In early 1990's Iran had done the same. Iranians then had discovered the world's largest natural gas field in Persian Gulf which also contains the world's largest helium reserves and they announced it to the world immediately. At first no one believed Iran but Qatar got curious and hired some western companies to investigate and they found out that a portion of that field actually extends into Qatari waters. The game was up. Within months US imposed further sanctions on Iran so they could not develop their gas fields while Qatar was provided all the technologies and western companies came in and started sucking out the gas.

Within a few years Qatar had become the world's largest exporter of LNG. Though the field was shared between Iran and Qatar and Iran had originally discovered it, Iran lost alot since Qatar was depleting the field while Iran could only watch as years passed. Still Iran is struggling to develop the field with its own resources while Qatar became the world's richest country upon the Iranian discovery and Iran still has no LNG or any substantial gas exports. That was very unfortunate.

One major portion of gas and oil field development is the investment required for discovering the fields. It was very unfortunate for Iran to throw such a discovery done by Iranian investment right into the lap of Qatar. It would be very unfortunate if this is true in this case as well. You can be sure now Azerbaijan will bring in western companies to investigate. Maybe Iranians officials should from time to time shut their mouths and let matters rest until they are absolutely sure and confident that they can take the maximum advantage of a situation they are creating.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Azerbaijan can claim about that water , we believe anything south of brown lines .and in fact right now we have control over it and one time that Azerbaijan wanted to drill in that area we stopped them .

by the way it's Alievestan wet dream that USSR push Iran over this matter with Azerbaijan ,in fact they get all they wanted from Caspian sea and well if they want European and American companies get their hand on this oil field then they will pressure Iran on this matter.