It stands to reason that Hamas will certainly lose, and should HezbAllah overplay its hands, it will certainly stand to lose a lot as well. Reports are indicating the numbers of rockets launched by Hamas have significantly decreased and there are mounting casualties, specifically of commanders. The Lie-DF is indeed losing a more than expected amount of material and men, but they have half a million men mobilized, three hundred thousand surrounding Gaza alone, and have the unending protection of the U.S.
This does not mean the Palestinians won't exact a high price in blood for the Lie-DF's victory. They will. But people must be realistic. In every war between the Isra"el"is and the Palestinians, Isra"el" lost far fewer in men and materiel than the Palestinians, for the following reasons:
- Isra"el" has a highly technologically advanced military. This allows for life-saving technology, preventative measures, stand-off strikes, air strikes, precision artillery and small arms and armaments that have surpassed traditional problems presented in warfare.
- The Lie-DF numerically superior.
- The Lie-DF is logistically solid, given the small area of land that composes Isra"el" and the supreme importance they place on supply and movement.
- Isra"el" has the unending backing of the preeminent global hegemon. This is like playing a game on tool-assisted speedplay or with an invincibility code.
- Given that the events of 10/7 were propagandized and sold as an "Isra'el'i 9/11" and the people of Isra"el" being descendants (supposedly; there's a lot of brainwashing as well) of a people who had been expelled or massacred in over 160 countries to date, the propaganda flipped the "existential threat" switch and the Isra"el"i military and public are fully prepared to sacrifice as long as it takes to ensure said threat is neutralized.
- Hamas has a few tens of thousands of fighters.
- Hamas weaponry is older and more limited in its capacities.
- Hamas tactics are asymmetrical; part of asymmetrical war takes heavy casualties on the side of the guerrillas as a given.
- Hamas has lost all public goodwill outside of Palestine, Iran and the streets (not governments) of the Arab world. The public opinion of Iran, ordinary Arabs in West Asia, and Muslims does not mean shit. Public opinion matters when there are levers said public can pull to sway decision making. Hence, the public opinion of white Westerners in America, Canada, Europe, and of people in China matter. Public opinion turning on Isra"el" for genocide at best translates to public opinion in favor of Palestinians, but not Hamas. Hamas has effectively put itself in the position where the misery inflicted on Palestinians by Isra"el" will lead to many blaming Hamas. Of course this is just what being oppressed and abused entails; when those that seek to protect them fight, it's natural that the magnified misery the victimized people will endure will lead them to see fighting as useless and adopt a fatalistic attitude, and then blame those fighting for them for making their lot worse. Few people understand this unless they've lived in such conditions.
- Hamas has all of its eggs in one basket- tunnels. Should these tunnels get detonated, napalmed, or fumigated, that's it for them. This is a weakness, not a strength.
- Armies that lack recent combat experience tend to start off taking lots of casualties and making big mistakes. This was evident in the 2022 military operation in Ukraine. Eventually, the realities of war prune out the rough edges of the military. Six months from the start date and an army can look completely different. Isra"el" has planned for a "long war".
These reasons above entail not only why Hamas and Palestinians in general will face a very lopsided situation in terms of losses, but why they also are certain to lose. The absolute best thing that can happen in this situation is the obtainment of time for as many Palestinians to get out (so long as there is a global effort to help them resettle) and that the Palestinians will be known historically for having put up a brave fight in the face of extinction. Not many groups can attest to that, the Jews themselves did not put up a fight like this until way later in the war.
As much as it pains me to say this, this is how history rolls. Power knows no such thing as morality. Power is the lifeblood of all things historical and all things human. International law is meaningful only if there is a powerful force to enforce said laws. Otherwise it's a bunch of useless naggers waving their fingers at each other. This is something the Netanyahoo government understands.
The Holocaust taught Jews several things. Some Jews became humanists and globalists, dedicated to idealistic causes like bettering humanity, to speak out against injustices, and to levy their financial resources toward preventing further human catastrophes. For these, "never again" means for anybody, And then, some more cynical types had their belief in morality, justice, and humanity shattered completely, never to return. Many also lost their faith in god, or adopted a schema of an ethnocentric god. These are the "never again for us" people. These people learned that in order to prevent their genocide, they must be genocidal themselves. People like Netanyahoo, and all in the Isra"el"i right are of this kind. They lost their faith in anything that transcends the Darwinian struggle. They have decided to kill first rather than be killed. And it's working for them. Once Gaza is done, there will be the West Bank. Then Lebanon. Then Syria. Then the Sinai. They are here, expressly committing genocide and the world's sole superpower is not only green lighting it, but sending in its own special forces and money to help them do it more completely. Politics is about power and strength, not idealism or justice. Never let anyone tell you otherwise, and if someone does, write them off as an imbecile and disregard their opinion on anything other than movies and food.
I really wish some people here would read the works of John J. Mearsheimer and other political realists. His books are highly readible, his speeches on YouTube are very engaging, and they are right 100% of the time (in fact, it was the globalists like Freidman who tried to tear down political realism only to have their proverbial arses handed to them in the past few years). History is written in blood and a matter of strength. Truth is then established by the powerful. How many people remember even the names of the tribes that were wiped out in North America? How many people remember the battles? How many people remember the Trail of Tears?
Settler colonialism is certainly evil, but the times in which it was stopped in the modern era are rare. Perhaps Nazi Germany is an example of this. And yet it's crucial to realize the Nazis weren't stopped because they were committing genocide. Once the situation started approaching genocide, every major power closed their doors on the Jews. The Soviets looked the other way. The U.S. looked the other way. The British didn't care. Eventually, when the Soviets broke the Third Reich's back in 1941-1942, that's when Allied governments began putting Germany on blast; to hasten its defeat and corner it in diplomacy, they attacked the very legitimacy of their government and society. They weren't stopped because of their genocide; they were stopped because Russia was existentially threatened, the UK was on the verge of losing everything, and the U.S. did not want to politically or economically compete with a unified Europe.
Throughout history, settler colonialism happened, albeit in less "modern" ways. This is history. Conquest, the vanquishing of entire people, war. The Yamnaya culture that Iranians descended from killed, mass murdered, raped, and cannibalized their way throughout Eurasia in the Bronze Age. Peace is an aberration. If you were a political realist, you'd know that. Not even global integration and financialization can stop base human nature and the struggle for resources. People in Washington's highest echelons know this, as do people in Tel Aviv, and yes, in the Islamic Republic as well. This is probably also the biggest reason why Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, UAE, and the other Arab countries were seeking normalization. They realized there was nothing they could do that wouldn't spell their own end.
I'll go back and reiterate, from a realist standpoint. Iran needs to double-time to fill the vacuum left in a post-Hamas Levant. They need to engage in Egypt, Jordan, and bolster their power in Lebanon. They need to stop this from spreading to Syria. And they need that nuclear deterrent. If the Islamic Republic cannot nuclearize in the face of all this, they have lost their legitimacy simply from their abject failure to protect Iranian people from external aggression.
