Iranian Chill Thread

[HGV]

Have you been watching the same war as me? Russia has been pulverizing Ukraine.

It’s been nearly 2 years. Russia has fired hundreds of BMs/CMs into Ukraine and over 1000+ S-131/136. All these use interceptor missile.

The Kiyv attack alone they fired 30+ of Iskander/Kinzhal and CMs alone.

Iskander is the only ballistic missile they use in numbers and even then they have not been launched in large numbers compared to cruise missiles or drones

They mostly fired CMs as BM is harder to procure and manufacture.

Not true:

"The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said on Sunday the Iran-aligned Houthi group had fired 430 ballistic missiles and 851 armed drones at Saudi Arabia since the war started in 2015, killing 59 Saudi civilians."

Houthis have fired 430 missiles, 851 drones at Saudi Arabia since 2015 - Saudi-led coalition

The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said on Sunday the Iran-aligned Houthi group had fired 430 ballistic missiles and 851 armed drones at Saudi Arabia since the war started in 2015, killing 59 Saudi civilians.

www.reuters.com

For what exactly? Let’s say their air defenses (non-Iron dome) are weakened. Hamas cannot take advantage of this.

Weakening air defenses if HZ or Iran don’t join, won’t serve to stop Israeli occupation of Gaza.

It costs them a lot of money, they have to deploy significant air force resources to constantly monitor south Israel to intercept drones and cruise missiles, and this creates a lot of opportunity costs. It also leaves them more vulnerable to Hezbollah/Iranian missile attacks, and thus less likely to escalate against Hezbollah or Iran.

First learn the seeker on Abu Mahdi before you throw random numbers out.

1000km is the official claimed range of the Abu Mahdi ASCM, it's not a "random number".

Anything beyond short range is GLNSS/GPS guidance. Which means Houthi’s need the exact real time coordinates of the Israeli ship. Hence why Abu Mahdi is referred to as a LACM, it’s more suitable to attack an already known fixed land target rather than a moving object which requires constant ISR.

Iran has spy ships in the region as well as 3 of its own satellites in orbit to assist with that.

Abu Mahdi missile is referred to by Iranian generals as an anti-ship missile.

Popeye missile with 200KM range and Popeye-LR with reported 1200KM range.

They can also do aerial bombardment using stand off munitions like they do in Syria. I’m sure the US would be glad to refuel their F-16’s in the air.

We can forget about the 200km range missile (they would have to go within 50-100km of Yemen unless they want to strike random Yemeni beaches). How many Israeli ships carry the Popeye-LR missile and in what quantities?

You don’t need “dozens” of ships to respond. It’s not like Houthi’s leveled Tel Aviv they fired one missile that did zero damage. By your logic Israel should have leveled all of Lebanon due to HZ attacks.

We are discussing Israel's practical ability to respond. I am not suggesting they should launch massive attacks. I am suggesting it is not practical for them to do so, and even if they are able to do so, it will have very limited effect.

“All across the world”, Sir go look at a map. Israel -> Red Sea via Panama Canal. Literally their backyard.

You act like they have to strike Cuba.

I checked the map and the map said those ships would have to travel >2000km to get close to Yemen. That takes time and my point is Israel doesn't have a blue water navy. Its ships are mainly designed for anti-ship and air defence roles, I am curious to find out which of their ships are known to carry the Popeye-LR missile, I hope you can tell me

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719418505550868599

Confirmed what we always knew, Arab leaders don’t care about Palestine.

Iran thought it could galvanize them and pressure them into creating an islamic unity to attack Israel (or at least cut ties and support the Axis) but they should realize the last time These Arab leaders wanted to fight Israel was Yom Kippur war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719464063518855666

Like I said goal is occupation.

 

[jauk]

Strategic assessment of missile/drone fire from Yemen to Israel

1) Iranian ballistic missiles fired by Yemen - bleeds Israeli ABM interceptors (which are extremely expensive and in limited numbers) and forces Israel to devote ABM systems and radars facing south rather than north to Lebanon or east to Iran

2) Iranian cruise missiles and drones fired by Yemen - forces Israel to devote significant air force resources to patrol airspace and intercept these targets, removing these resources from the Gaza conflict

While Palestinian groups bleed Israeli Iron Dome stocks, Houthis bleed Israeli ABM stocks. Each Arrow missile costs $3 million. Compared to $10,000-$20,000 for each Iron Dome "Tamir" missile, a huge difference (1 Arrow missile = 300 Iron Dome missiles in terms of cost).

We should also talk about missile inventories. We know that Israel had to beg USA for replacement Tamir missiles after 1-2 days of war with Gaza, and have received multiple top-ups since then as well. They have now withdrawn Iron Dome batteries from settlements (such as Sderot) to preserve inventories.

As we know from Ukraine, stocks of modern AD systems are very limited. Israeli stocks of ABM missiles (such as Arrow-2/3) are also much lower than some may think. The USA jointly funds the Arrow project but does not operate any Arrow systems itself, so this time it cannot simply reach into its reserves to resupply Israel.

And we know that Israel has very limited options to respond to Yemen. The Houthis possess a variant of the advanced Iranian Third Khordad SAM system )(as well as long-range ASCMs) and are too far away for Israel to do any meaningful damage to them (indeed, the Saudis in 8 years of brutal war against Yemen could not degrade the Houthis' military capabilities from next door let alone 1700km away).

Correct!

 

[tsunset]

Iskander is the only ballistic missile they use in numbers and even then they have not been launched in large numbers compared to cruise missiles or drones

Not true:

"The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said on Sunday the Iran-aligned Houthi group had fired 430 ballistic missiles and 851 armed drones at Saudi Arabia since the war started in 2015, killing 59 Saudi civilians."

Houthis have fired 430 missiles, 851 drones at Saudi Arabia since 2015 - Saudi-led coalition

The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said on Sunday the Iran-aligned Houthi group had fired 430 ballistic missiles and 851 armed drones at Saudi Arabia since the war started in 2015, killing 59 Saudi civilians.

www.reuters.com

It costs them a lot of money, they have to deploy significant air force resources to constantly monitor south Israel to intercept drones and cruise missiles, and this creates a lot of opportunity costs. It also leaves them more vulnerable to Hezbollah/Iranian missile attacks, and thus less likely to escalate against Hezbollah or Iran.

1000km is the official claimed range of the Abu Mahdi ASCM, it's not a "random number".

Iran has spy ships in the region as well as 3 of its own satellites in orbit to assist with that.

Abu Mahdi missile is referred to by Iranian generals as an anti-ship missile.

We can forget about the 200km range missile (they would have to go within 50-100km of Yemen unless they want to strike random Yemeni beaches). How many Israeli ships carry the Popeye-LR missile and in what quantities?

We are discussing Israel's practical ability to respond. I am not suggesting they should launch massive attacks. I am suggesting it is not practical for them to do so, and even if they are able to do so, it will have very limited effect.

I checked the map and the map said those ships would have to travel >2000km to get close to Yemen. That takes time and my point is Israel doesn't have a blue water navy. Its ships are mainly designed for anti-ship and air defence roles, I am curious to find out which of their ships are known to carry the Popeye-LR missile, I hope you can tell me

"The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said on Sunday the Iran-aligned Houthi group had fired 430 ballistic missiles and 851 armed drones at Saudi Arabia since the war started in 2015, killing 59 Saudi civilians."

Unless i read something badly in that article, this is false, missile strikes didn't "killed 59 Saudi civilians" only
Houthis were making monster kills using Tochkas in 2015, accumulating more than 250 deaths of soldiers using a bunch of Tochka BMs

September 2015 Marib Tochka missile attack - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

December 2015 Taiz missile attack - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719471427118641645

 

[Hormuz]

What anyone should expect from UAE?

90% of its population consists of Indians, Filipinos/other Asian countries

UAE thus doesn't risks anything from the population

there r even rumors that uae f 16s r in israel and helping them to bomb gaza

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717495833661161903

 

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719480863061164259

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719449143653912761

 

[jauk]

Poor Zionists:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719436439748853885

 

[tsunset]

Does someone know the number of people that left Israel since the 7th?

 

[HGV]

Unless i read something badly in that article, this is false, missile strikes didn't "killed 59 Saudi civilians" only
Houthis were making monster kills using Tochkas in 2015, accumulating more than 250 deaths of soldiers using a bunch of Tochka BMs

September 2015 Marib Tochka missile attack - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

December 2015 Taiz missile attack - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The statement talked about civilian casualties not military deaths. Regardless, I don't care about their claimed casualty numbers, the point was just the number of ballistic missiles fired by Houthis.

 

[Mehdipersian]

 

[HGV]

FOURTH TIME LUCKY?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719486989655851289

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719488199695753430

IDF statement: "A short time ago, the air defense fighters intercepted an aerial threat detected in the Red Sea area, south of Eilat. No danger to civilians was perceived and no intrusion into Israeli territory was detected."

The missile looks pretty close to "Israeli territory" in the video to me

Houthi missile strikes are getting closer and closer, they are learning and improving. Operation deplete ABM inventory continues - I wonder what was used to intercept it this time

 

[HGV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719495140060893592

 

[jauk]

In Cyberattacks, Iran Shows Signs of Improved Hacking Capabilities

A monthslong hacking campaign targeted the governments of regional rivals, including Israel, and marked a turn, a new report says, as the attacks were used to collect intelligence, not just disrupt services.

www.nytimes.com

 

[PakistaniandProud]

A lot of weird news spreading:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719439086895652964