Iranian Chill Thread

[thesaint]

Dimona is 1700-1750km away from north Yemen, theoretically they can do it. But in practice the quality and capabilities of the missile (effectively a glorified SCUD derivative with low manufacturing / quality standards) will struggle to penetrate Israel's dense ABM/AD network. But no harm in trying and forcing them to worry about it and bleed Arrow-2/3 interceptor missiles

When Haj Qasem was unveiled (1400km range) they talked about increasing its range to 1800km, would be a good time for Iran to try to transfer slightly more advanced MRBMs to Yemen beyond the usual SCUD derivatives, although this is obviously not easy


It's not laughable at all, they launched hundreds of attacks. Of those 120 casualties it's probably 10-20 killed

yes that crack pseudo nutcase is more laughable than his laughable arguments...

 

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719434894672052374

 

[Mehdipersian]

Jordan has claimed to have intercepted a Yemeni missile

 

[HGV]

Good analysis of the Houthi Qods-3 LACM that crashed in Jordan and attacks generally

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719437671356092592

In summary:
- Qods-3 LACM crashed in Jordan on its way to Israel (not intercepted)
- The journey from Yemen to Eilat (in Israel) is approximately 1600km
- After the US intercepted missiles over the Red Sea, the Houthis have decided to fire missiles into Israel over land (Saudi Arabia and Jordan). This makes the missiles harder to detect/intercept
- The missile travelled approximately 1500km and lost control 100km before reaching its target

Jordan has claimed to have intercepted a Yemeni missile

They didn't claim to intercept it, it crashed in Jordan 100km away from reaching Eilat

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719440661902966838

 

[HGV]

Strategic assessment of missile/drone fire from Yemen to Israel

1) Iranian ballistic missiles fired by Yemen - bleeds Israeli ABM interceptors (which are extremely expensive and in limited numbers) and forces Israel to devote ABM systems and radars facing south rather than north to Lebanon or east to Iran

2) Iranian cruise missiles and drones fired by Yemen - forces Israel to devote significant air force resources to patrol airspace and intercept these targets, removing these resources from the Gaza conflict

While Palestinian groups bleed Israeli Iron Dome stocks, Houthis bleed Israeli ABM stocks. Each Arrow missile costs $3 million. Compared to $10,000-$20,000 for each Iron Dome "Tamir" missile, a huge difference (1 Arrow missile = 300 Iron Dome missiles in terms of cost).

We should also talk about missile inventories. We know that Israel had to beg USA for replacement Tamir missiles after 1-2 days of war with Gaza, and have received multiple top-ups since then as well. They have now withdrawn Iron Dome batteries from settlements (such as Sderot) to preserve inventories.

As we know from Ukraine, stocks of modern AD systems are very limited. Israeli stocks of ABM missiles (such as Arrow-2/3) are also much lower than some may think. The USA jointly funds the Arrow project but does not operate any Arrow systems itself, so this time it cannot simply reach into its reserves to resupply Israel.

And we know that Israel has very limited options to respond to Yemen. The Houthis possess a variant of the advanced Iranian Third Khordad SAM system )(as well as long-range ASCMs) and are too far away for Israel to do any meaningful damage to them (indeed, the Saudis in 8 years of brutal war against Yemen could not degrade the Houthis' military capabilities from next door let alone 1700km away).

 

[Blue In Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719443191311843446

 

[tsunset]

Bolivia severs diplomatic ties with Israel, citing 'crimes against humanity'

Bolivia's government is breaking diplomatic ties with Israel, the Bolivian foreign ministry said on Tuesday, accusing Israel of committing crimes against humanity in its attacks on the Gaza Strip.

www.reuters.com

 

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719447726750908551

 

[Blue In Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719453326931046810

 

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719456260481851507

 

[TheImmortal]

It's not laughable at all, they launched hundreds of attacks. Of those 120 casualties it's probably 10-20 killed

Hundreds? They didnt join the war till 2-3 weeks ago. They been averaging maybe 2-3 attacks mostly against infrastructure and towers.

And 120 casualties and 10 dead makes zero sense from a KIA:WIA ratio

Like I said days ago, at best HZ got a 1:1 ratio of losses:kills so that means 50 IDF killed and wounded. At worst the number is .5 to 1 which means 25 killed and wounded which is what IDF has so far reported.

 

[HGV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719453326931046810

It is now clear Israel intends to cut northern Gaza off from the rest of Gaza, and then likely impose a bloody total siege on north Gaza until all resistance is eliminated in that sector. Support from south Gaza and tunnel networks to enable circumventing the siege will be crucial - unless that is substantial, it will unfortunately only be a matter of time until the siege succeeds and armed resistance is eliminated from north Gaza, along with massive civilian massacres.

Their best hope is to put up stiff armed resistance for as long as possible (aided by tunnels and assistance from fighters in southern Gaza) and hope for a diplomatic breakthrough.

Hundreds? They didnt join the war till 2-3 weeks ago. They been averaging maybe 2-3 attacks mostly against infrastructure and towers.

And 120 casualties and 10 dead makes zero sense from a KIA:WIA ratio

Like I said days ago, at best HZ got a 1:1 ratio of losses:kills so that means 50 IDF killed and wounded. At worst the number is .5 to 1 which means 25 killed and wounded which is what IDF has so far reported.

2-4 attacks per day, each one fires 2-6 ATGMs.

I said 10-20 dead, but it's purely speculation as Israel does not admit its casualties.

You are equating Israeli casualties with Hezbollah dead.

 

[TheImmortal]

Russia fired hundreds of CMs and BMs at Ukraine. Ukraine still hasn’t exhausted it’s ABM/ACM supply.

Let’s say Israel hypothetically has only 250 Patriot missiles and 250 Arrow-2/3 missiles.

That means resistance needs to fire at least 100 BMs and CMs to trigger them to waste their interceptors that’s assuming that 2 interceptors fired for every target.

And we know that Israel has very limited options to respond to Yemen. and are too far away for Israel to do any meaningful damage to them (indeed, the Saudis in 8 years of brutal war against Yemen could not degrade the Houthis' military capabilities from next door let alone 1700km away).

Israel has Dolphin subs and frigates that can target assets in Yemen. Although it would be largely symbolic unless they can strike Missile storage depots.

Jordan has claimed to have intercepted a Yemeni missile
View attachment 967042
View attachment 967044

It crashed, didn’t get intercepted. CMs have a decent % of failing. That applies to US CMs (t20-25%) to Russian CMs (up to 40%).

Does anyone remember the Russian kalibr CM that crashed in Iran?

 

[thesaint]

casualty != dead

casualty = dead + wounded