Iranian Chill Thread

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719102979100340241

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719095208132907485

 

[Stryker1982]

Some here chose to attack me personally instead of addressing my remarks with a coherent argument. It’s easy to be calling this a win for the Iranian axis when you’re probably hundreds or thousands of miles away from Gaza, where many have paid the ultimate price in the most heinous of ways.

What I’m arguing is this was a blunder by Hamas and if Iran advised them to do this it was either a strategic miscalculation by them or Iran knew the risks and didn’t care because they simply look at the “bigger picture” of checking a box off in the struggle with Israel.

I’m not saying Iran did tell them to do this but to me it’s the most likely explanation given how vast this operation was.

If the people of Gaza made this decision alone then that is their decision and they must be willing to see this through.

What exactly was achieved by this operation beyond some token political victory?

Everyone already knew that the resistance axis can strike anywhere in Israel and can do damage, this was neither a surprise nor has it achieved any particular deterrence or betterment of the situation in Gaza.

If it was to free the Palestinian hostages then surely the 10k Palestinians dead and thousands severely wounded so far isnt remotely worth any number of prisoners in Israeli jails. Let alone the almost complete destruction of Gaza infrastructure.

You’re not the mothers or fathers holding the skulls of their babies right now in Gaza.

so please anyone willing to educate me I’ll reconsider my position. To end my point I’ll say that Iran agrees with what I’m saying above because they themselves have done the math and see a direct conflict with the west as too costly for them despite the fact that they can also cause damage to their enemies.

Even Nasrallah in 2006 admitted that had he known their operation would lead to war he would not have done it. And the destruction Lebanon saw in 2006 pales in comparison to the destruction we are witnessing in Gaza.

So someone explain this to me.

No one has a better personal feeling of being under airstrikes than the people who live in Gaza, and particularly Hamas.

So whether or not an outside hand TOLD them to attack, or not. They would know the retaliation from what would happen from such a grand attack. No one can force them into this operation, so even if Iran tells Hamas one thing, or tells Hezbollah one thing. They can reject the idea due to the high risk to their population and themselves.

The operation Nasrallah green lighted wasn't something Iran told him to do, so this operation Hamas and PIJ did, which was unprecedented is on their shoulder regardless if Iran benefits from it or not.

They took it upon themselves to spends months training, devising, gathering the equipment and planning an attack. They had objectives to storm IDF bases and settlements swiftly and professionally, they knew what they were doing, and they wanted to break out of the prison they are in for once. No one can force them to do it.

Unless it's some grand plan going on behind the scenes that we don't know about, that will be clearer with time. The simplest explanation is the Palestinians were going to be abandoned and forgotten and they took it upon themselves to break out of the camp in an extraordinary operation and to remind everyone they are still here.

 

[jauk]

They are trying to divide and operate. if Hamas is done for, Israel officially turn their guns to Iran and hizbullah.

Lemme tell you today and tomorrow Iran and hizbullah will be attacked..if hamas fall, gaza will fall, west bank will fall, entire mid east will fall.

why sisi and arab leaders are still alive..? those munafiqs should be beheaded by now...there is no single arab country ran by muslims..but kuffars and munafiqs..

most of the arabs i find are kind of cowerd and some of them are becoming murtad.

Let’s not fall into clear war propaganda. Gazans are going nowhere.

…and let’s not propagate propaganda.

If you know anything of war this should be as clear as the sky for you.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719132444522057965

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719146536569901509

 

[HGV]

No casualties in earlier strike on IRGC related bases in Syria and Iraq by USA —seems like Biden gave a warning shot.

So the mighty USA absorbed 25+ casualties and did not inflict even 1 in return ...

Israel announces deaths of 3 IDF fighters in Gaza Strip

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719026536517357762

note how they are just now announcing deaths from October 7th, October 10th and October 25th!

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719024624170566001

 

[HGV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719056141097869804

Balls in Hezbollah and Iran’s court.

They will most likely stay and eventually annex Northern Gaza.

they are largely in small pockets in north gaza, they are sitting ducks to fpv drones, mortars, ATGMs and even rockets, not sure why they are not being targeted more effectively

They are trying to divide and operate. if Hamas is done for, Israel officially turn their guns to Iran and hizbullah.

Lemme tell you today and tomorrow Iran and hizbullah will be attacked..if hamas fall, gaza will fall, west bank will fall, entire mid east will fall.

I disagree

This war was started by Hamas and this is their response to Hamas, this doesn't change their plans vis-a-vis Hezbollah or Iran, their deterrence was not based in Gaza to begin with

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1718921462566830516

 

[HGV]

(insert feckless Persian Gulf Arab nation here)

I fixed it

 

[Blue In Green]

I fixed it

Appreciate it; I say Gulf Arabs with the assumption most know it means Persian Gulf Countries (PGC), but I use both interchangeably.

No one has a better personal feeling of being under airstrikes than the people who live in Gaza, and particularly Hamas.

So whether or not an outside hand TOLD them to attack, or not. They would know the retaliation from what would happen from such a grand attack. No one can force them into this operation, so even if Iran tells Hamas one thing, or tells Hezbollah one thing. They can reject the idea due to the high risk to their population and themselves.

The operation Nasrallah green lighted wasn't something Iran told him to do, so this operation Hamas and PIJ did, which was unprecedented is on their shoulder regardless if Iran benefits from it or not.

They took it upon themselves to spends months training, devising, gathering the equipment and planning an attack. They had objectives to storm IDF bases and settlements swiftly and professionally, they knew what they were doing, and they wanted to break out of the prison they are in for once. No one can force them to do it.

Unless it's some grand plan going on behind the scenes that we don't know about, that will be clearer with time. The simplest explanation is the Palestinians were going to be abandoned and forgotten and they took it upon themselves to break out of the camp in an extraordinary operation and to remind everyone they are still here.

Well said Stryker; your last point might be an actual reason as to why Hamas did what they did to begin with.

The region was more or less moving towards general peace with Israel and that most likely meant Palestinians were going to be forgotten.

 

[Blue In Green]

they are largely in small pockets in north gaza, they are sitting ducks to fpv drones, mortars, ATGMs and even rockets, not sure why they are not being targeted more effectively


I disagree

This war was started by Hamas and this is their response to Hamas, this doesn't change their plans vis-a-vis Hezbollah or Iran, their deterrence was not based in Gaza to begin with

Easier said than done.

IDF and US armed Forces have 24/7 surveillance of nearly every square inch of Gaza currently, especially Northern Gaza.

All manners of drones are being used alongside advanced optics on various Israeli armored vehicles to spot targets in buildings/rubble. This leaves little practical room for Hamas fighters to inflict damage outside of waiting for convoys to get really close, then open fire on them from manholes, tunnels and ruins of buildings.

Hamas wants to fight IDF in close range combat.

 

[Blue In Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719166720647037013

Expanding operations against Hezbollah.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719160268456960265

 

[HGV]

Easier said than done.

IDF and US armed Forces have 24/7 surveillance of nearly every square inch of Gaza currently, especially Northern Gaza.

All manners of drones are being used alongside advanced optics on various Israeli armored vehicles to spot targets in buildings/rubble. This leaves little practical room for Hamas fighters to inflict damage outside of waiting for convoys to get really close, then open fire on them from manholes, tunnels and ruins of buildings.

Hamas wants to fight IDF in close range combat.

they are still able to launch hundreds of rockets per day so I don't understand why they can't launch small drones or ATGMs from as far as 5km away

 

[Blue In Green]

they are still able to launch hundreds of rockets per day so I don't understand why they can't launch small drones or ATGMs from as far as 5km away

Gaza is small enough to where IDF forces can adequately have eyes on most places where an ATGM team would potentially fire from.

The second a team sets up, even in the rubble. Advanced optics will pick up on their position and fire a round.

Maybe they can get a lucky hit at 5km if a tank crew was careless enough to let themselves be exposed but they’ve built Earthen mounds around the entire perimeter fence and are moving under the cover of heavy fire.

Hamas has the best chance to inflict damage at literal point blank ranges.

I will say this; due to the probable military censor put in place by the IDF. We just don’t know what HAMAS is using and just how many casualties IDF is taking currently. Not accurately at least.

Hamas can say whatever, Israel can say whatever but we just don’t know.

FPV drones are probably being used as we speak. ATGMS have been used thus far to my knowledge.