Russian Hypersonic Glider Weapons Would Easily Penetrate U.S. Defenses, Says Expert
Bruce DormineyContributor
I cover over-the-horizon technology, aerospace and astronomy.
Today, the U.S., Russia and China are developing a new class of hypersonic ballistic glider weapons, which within a decade, may render most of the world’s nuclear arsenals vulnerable to lightning-fast penetration and attack.
Although boost-glide [or hyperglide vehicles (HGVs)] weapons would be launched by ballistic missiles and reach hypersonic speeds of at least Mach 5 or more, they would remain maneuverable and largely untrackable after the initial boost phase of their flight. And unlike an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), an HGV’s aerodynamics enables it to generate enough “lift” to potentially glide over distances approaching ten thousand kilometers. All before hitting their targets with accuracies down to a few meters.
“In theory, gliders can either “skip” along the atmosphere like a stone skimming the surface of a pond, or they can glide on a smooth “equilibrium” trajectory,” James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace in
Washington, D.C., told me. But the latter smooth trajectory is technically less challenging. Thus, Acton says it appears that’s the one that all three countries are currently developing.
The idea of using such hypersonic glider weapons dates to the 1930s, with the current U.S. program stretching back to 2003. Yet at the moment, American efforts are focused on the estimated $2.4 billion Advanced Hypersonic Weapon (AHW), which would have a range of about 8,000 kilometers.
Artist’s impression of a Chinese Boost Glide vehicle. Credit: Wikipedia
The AHW program is primarily an in-house effort involving Sandia National Labs and the Army Space and Missile command, says Acton, who emphasizes that current U.S. glider efforts are still very much in the research and development phase. However, he notes that, in theory, land- or sea-launched gliders could be used for the delivery of nuclear or nonnuclear warheads. However, thus far, Acton says, the U.S. is currently focused exclusively on non-nuclear HGVs. But both China and Russia, says Acton, appear to also be developing the gliders for delivery of nuclear warheads.
As for who is actually ahead in this glider horse race?
Although Russia’s glider program — known as Project 4202 — and China, with its own DF-ZF hypersonic glider vehicle — are testing more frequently, Acton maintains that current evidence strongly suggests that the U.S. still has a clear lead.
But the Pentagon has yet to call for deployment of such weapons, much less outline how they would actually be used.
However, as Acton told Congress’ House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces (HASC) last December, U.S. boost gliders could be potentially used to prevent what he termed new proliferators, such as North Korea or even Iran, from using a nuclear arsenal. Or to counter or disable China’s anti-satellite capability. Or even for taking out high-value terrorists.
As for the latter, gliders would seemingly be ideal for quickly taking out terrorist targets, since they could strike almost anywhere on the globe within an hour of launch. The gliders’ untrackability stems from the fact that they travel at much lower altitudes than ballistic missiles and are generally invisible to ground-based radar. So,
they would also be able to arrive at their targets without warning.
Russia’s primary goal with the glider technology is almost certainly to ensure that it can continue to deliver nuclear warheads through existing U.S. missile defenses, Acton told Congress. But he noted that Russia itself may also seek to develop conventional boost-glide weapons.
For decades, all three nuclear superpowers — the U.S., Russia and China — have relied on what is loosely termed the nuclear triad. That is, submarine-launched ballistic missiles; strategic bombers and conventional ICBMs as a mainstay of their defense strategies.
However, post Cold War anti-ballistic missile defense systems — both in the U.S. and in Europe — have already ruffled Chinese and Russian feathers. Thus, how would Russia and China react if the U.S. is able to deploy a functional boost glide weapon system years in advance of their own?
“Russia and China both worry that gliders could compromise the survivability of their nuclear forces,” said Acton.
Although Acton thinks such Russian and Chinese fears are exaggerated, over the last decade, he says Russian president
Vladimir Putin has long made a point to rail against U.S. plans to develop even conventional, long-range hypersonic weapons. As Acton notes, Putin has warned that the combination of new boost glide technology and new U.S. ballistic missile defense measures could disrupt the “strategic balance of power.”
Acton says that although long-range gliders are at least a decade from deployment, he does think there’s a new trilateral arms race in the offing, making mutual restraint next to impossible.
Sputnik, an online English-language news outlet funded by the Russian government, recently reported that Russia’s Yu-74 hypersonic gliders would not only evade NATO’s missile defense systems but will be also capable of penetrating through the U.S. THAAD shield. “The analysts argue that while the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is effective in intercepting outdated R-17 Elbrus tactical ballistic missiles,” notes Sputnik, “it is potentially vulnerable to the threat posed by advanced missile systems.”
THAAD, a system designed to defend against attacks from short range and intermediate ballistic missiles, says Acton, likely wouldn’t be used to fend off ICBMs fired onto the American continent. That said, Acton contends that existing Russian ICBMs could already penetrate so-called midcourse defenses, designed to intercept ballistic missiles in space.
“So, I don’t think Moscow is developing gliders to deal with THAAD,” said Acton. “[But] I suspect that [Russian] gliders would be extremely effective at penetrating existing defenses like the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) System — used to defend the continental U.S.”