Iranian Chill Thread
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Iran exports around 2-2.3m bpd of oil, about 1.2m of this to China and India, the rest to Turkey/South Korea/Japan/EU.
Trump has promised to destroy Iran's oil exports down to 0. Most 'experts' are predicting that the oil sanctions will reduce Iran's oil exports by about half, down to 1m bdp. Iran's oil exports have not gone below 1m bpd for 36 years.
Iran needs to keep oil exports as close to 1.5m as possible. Oil price is around $70 pb now and predicted to reach $80-90 when Iran supplies less, which will slightly offset the reduction (although Iran will have to offer discounts and incentives so this won't help that much).
- China said it will not reduce oil imports which is very good and important, but also it said it won't increase imports, which could be very bad because Iran hopes for China to offset reductions by other countries... China imports approx 600-700k bdp.
- India imported record level last month (750k bdp), but it is very likely that India will reduce oil imports from 20-50% to get a waiver like in 2012. So at least 400k bdp should continue from India.
- South Korea imports around 300k bdp and is negotiating to get a waiver, but looks like SK is not very committed because it is already increasing imports from Kazakhstan and now only 5% of their oil imports are from Iran. SK got a waiver in 2012 but I don't think they will fight that hard if they can't get a waiver this time, so Iran has to prepare for big drop in SK imports of oil (maybe to 0).
- Turkey imports around 150k bdp of oil and Trump helped Iran by sanctioning Turkey lately, Erdogan already said they will not follow the sanctions so it looks like 150k bdp from Turkey is safe (and Turkey is very reliant on Iranian gas as well, but has pledged to continue importing both oil and gas from Iran).
- Then around 450k bdp to the EU (Italy/Spain/France/Greece), which the EU seems very committed to protecting. The problem is whether they can work out a finance mechanism because the EIB is not keen on dealing with Iran.
On the whole, even on the worst case scenario, China, India and Turkey alone will suffice to keep Iran's oil exports comfortably above 1m bdp. If the EU can resolve the payment mechanism (they seem determined which is good and oil imports is the best way for them to keep JCPOA) then Iran can reach 1.5m bpd. This will be with a higher price of oil as well. In a best case scenario, China will import more Iranian oil (they seem to have no problem defying the U.S. these days which is good sign), India will reduce its imports by only 20%, and the EU will protect its imports - but Iran must prepare for the worst...
So, Trump's dream/pledge to reduce Iran's oil exports to 0 looks very unlikely. Any other thoughts?
Trump has promised to destroy Iran's oil exports down to 0. Most 'experts' are predicting that the oil sanctions will reduce Iran's oil exports by about half, down to 1m bdp. Iran's oil exports have not gone below 1m bpd for 36 years.
Iran needs to keep oil exports as close to 1.5m as possible. Oil price is around $70 pb now and predicted to reach $80-90 when Iran supplies less, which will slightly offset the reduction (although Iran will have to offer discounts and incentives so this won't help that much).
- China said it will not reduce oil imports which is very good and important, but also it said it won't increase imports, which could be very bad because Iran hopes for China to offset reductions by other countries... China imports approx 600-700k bdp.
- India imported record level last month (750k bdp), but it is very likely that India will reduce oil imports from 20-50% to get a waiver like in 2012. So at least 400k bdp should continue from India.
- South Korea imports around 300k bdp and is negotiating to get a waiver, but looks like SK is not very committed because it is already increasing imports from Kazakhstan and now only 5% of their oil imports are from Iran. SK got a waiver in 2012 but I don't think they will fight that hard if they can't get a waiver this time, so Iran has to prepare for big drop in SK imports of oil (maybe to 0).
- Turkey imports around 150k bdp of oil and Trump helped Iran by sanctioning Turkey lately, Erdogan already said they will not follow the sanctions so it looks like 150k bdp from Turkey is safe (and Turkey is very reliant on Iranian gas as well, but has pledged to continue importing both oil and gas from Iran).
- Then around 450k bdp to the EU (Italy/Spain/France/Greece), which the EU seems very committed to protecting. The problem is whether they can work out a finance mechanism because the EIB is not keen on dealing with Iran.
On the whole, even on the worst case scenario, China, India and Turkey alone will suffice to keep Iran's oil exports comfortably above 1m bdp. If the EU can resolve the payment mechanism (they seem determined which is good and oil imports is the best way for them to keep JCPOA) then Iran can reach 1.5m bpd. This will be with a higher price of oil as well. In a best case scenario, China will import more Iranian oil (they seem to have no problem defying the U.S. these days which is good sign), India will reduce its imports by only 20%, and the EU will protect its imports - but Iran must prepare for the worst...
So, Trump's dream/pledge to reduce Iran's oil exports to 0 looks very unlikely. Any other thoughts?
Parsipride
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One of the topics that this newsman hits on " The working class Iranians are angry, worried , and their is an enormous amount of anxiety here". What do expect? Charlatans with AK47S aka representatives of god on earth in charge of our country are raping and pillaging our wealth and resources. The economy was a disaster before the sanctions, and it is in a free fall.
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https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/...errorist-cell-in-nw-iran-killing-10-militants
IRGC Smashes Terrorist Cell in NW Iran, Killing 10 Militants
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Force managed to disband a terrorist cell in Oshnavieh in Iran’s northwestern province of West Azarbaijan, killing at least 10 militants.
August, 11, 2018 - 13:45
“Last night, a well-equipped terrorist cell affiliated with the global arrogance (the US) and foreign intelligence services that intended to infiltrate into the country from the border area of Oshnavieh to create insecurity and take acts of sabotage was ambushed by the brave warriors of the IRGC Ground Force’s Hamzeh Seyed al-Shohada Base,” the IRGC Ground Force said in a statement on Saturday.
In the clash between the armed group and the IRGC forces, at least 10 terrorists were killed and a number of others were injured, it added.
In the operation, the IRGC forces captured a huge amount of ammunition, weapons, and communication equipment, according to the statement.
On July 20, anti-revolutionary terrorists attacked a border post of the IRGC Ground Force’s Hamzeh Seyed al-Shohada Base in Iran’s western province of Kurdistan, killing 11 forces of the base.
In the clash with the terrorists, a number of terrorists were killed and a number of others suffered injuries and escaped the scene.
At the time, the IRGC said “a deadly and crushing revenge” awaits the terrorist and anti-revolutionary groups and their supporters for committing this crime.
The IRGC is tasked with protecting the country’s northwestern and southeastern borders.
Now we see what the US is doing to Turkey just because Turkey wants to be an independent, sovereign nation & make its own decisions.
10 years ago 1 USD = 1.2 LIRA
Now 1 USD = 6.4 LIRA
2 days ago 1 USD = 5.2 LIRA
The US is waging economic war against any country that does fall into line & take orders from the US & their Zionist masters from Tel Aviv.
Iran's currency has already recovered 20% since a few days ago. There was an initial shock, but the economy will adjust. Multinationals have been forced out of Iran but the void their departure has created will be filled by Chinese, Russian, foreign companies that will take their place. A devalued currency will lead to a surge in Iranian exports. In the long run, Trumps actions will backfire & turn the entire world against America. The US is big but the world is bigger. That is why Trumps sanctions are doomed to fail.
Remember Iran was fully abiding by the terms of the nuclear deal. It was Trump who backed out. Ironically, despite backing out, Trump is still demanding that Iran still abide by the terms of the nuclear deal. Trump is basically following orders from Tel Aviv & what he is asking for is Iran to abandon it's missile program, abandon its allies (remember Iran saved Baghdad & Damascus from ISIS) & allow inspections on military sites ? That would be tantamount to Iran surrendering, submitting to the USA without a fight and effectively becoming a vassal state. In the 80's the US supported Saddam in attacking Iran. Saddam bombarded Iranian cities, civilian centers with missiles & Iran had no way of responding. No one would sell Iran missiles.
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Parsipride
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Before 1979 70 Rial or 7 toman= $1
Today 120,000 Rial or 12,000 toman= $1
Big difference between Turkish Lira (7 to 1 loss of purchasing power) and Iranian Rial( 12,000 to 1 loss of purchasing power against the dollar).
The Turks are fu..kng idiots and Erdogan is leading them straight to disaster. Turkey is very vulnerable economy owing a trillion dollars to Rothchilds banks. They will have him begging like a dog sooner than later.
This is just one of the golden achievements of the revolution. There is no doubt that the fake joos run JUSA. We have the so called representatives of god on earth peddling a savage, barbaric culture of illeterates bedouins with AKS whiles living the country starved.
Just like the rest of their horse shit propaganda , now they are peddling fear with their fantasy videos of busted operations of terrorists against Iran. It is funny how we never see dead bodies of the so called terrorists only the table full of confiscated ammunition. Just like the so called sham arrests of the disrupters of the economy, these propaganda videos posted by yavar are worthless.
I would like to see the names of manipulators of the current currency crisis( buying dollars at 42,000 official rates, and selling them on the black market for 112,000) or the importers of phones and autos. We will never see them because they are all in cohots with each other and they are all anti-iranian regime insiders .
By the way, that is good photo the asshole Trump. You should adjust to full size.
The Cunning English Enabler of the Mullas are turning against them. Maybe Mullas will not get to board next to other English pet project ( the so called Syrian white helmets) after all.
US ambassador says UK should join Trump and put pressure on Iran
Woody Johnson urges Britain to rethink its position after recent criticism of US policy
The US ambassador, Woody Johnson, said danger from Iran had grown thanks to the easing of sanctions. Photograph: Reuters
The US ambassador to London has said the UK should join Donald Trump in adopting a hardline attitude towards Iran.
Britain and its European allies responded with dismay to the US president’s decision in May to pull out of the 2015 deal which relieved sanctions on Iranin return for an end to Tehran’s military nuclear ambitions.
The foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, joined with his French and German counterparts last week to voice their “deep regret” at Washington’s withdrawal from the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA) and vow to protect European companies from US reprisals if they continue to trade with Iran.
London has made it clear it is committed to the JCPOA, but is open to talking to the US about ways to address shared concerns about Iran’s regional activities.
On Tuesday, the Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt said that the US had “not got this right” and Britain was ready to stand up to Trump, telling the BBC: “Sometimes you need to take a stand against friends.”
But the US ambassador, Woody Johnson, urged the UK to rethink its position.
In an article in the Sunday Telegraph, he said: “It is time to move on from the flawed 2015 deal.
Timeline
Trump's rhetoric on Iran
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“We are asking global Britain to use its considerable diplomatic power and influence and join us as we lead a concerted global effort towards a genuinely comprehensive agreement.”
Johnson said the Tehran regime had used the flow of money coming in to the country since the easing of sanctions not to improve the lives of ordinary Iranians but to beef up spending on the military and networks of proxy forces and terrorists.
He accused Iran of launching cyber-attacks against western democracies, sponsoring Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon, arming militants in Yemen and publicly threatening to destroy Israel.
“It is clear that the danger from Iran did not diminish in the wake of the deal,” he said. “It grew. Far from becoming a more responsible member of the international community, as we had all hoped, Iran grew bolder.”
He called for unity among western nations to force Tehran into a change of course.
“Only by presenting a united front can we exert the maximum possible pressure on the Iranian regime, and get it to finally change course and put an end to its malign and reckless activities both at home and abroad,” said the ambassador.
“If the regime does make tangible and sustained changes to behave like a normal country, America is prepared to resume full commercial and diplomatic relations. Iran will be free to develop advanced technologies and play a full role in the global economy.
“Until then, America is turning up the pressure and we want the UK by our side.”
Parsipride
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Football fans chanting " Marg Bar Dictator"
Aramagedon
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دوازده ۱۲ حمله ی بیو تروریستی آمریکا به ایران :
Hack-Hook
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تو را به خدا ازاین حرفای رایفی پور نگذار . این یارو سنتی و صنعتی را با هم میزنه . برو نگاه کن جه جرندیاتی در مورد بیمارستان نمازی شیراز گفته
Aramagedon
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اسکل این قضیه ژلاتین خوکی رو من دو ساله میدونم
دو مورد از سرطان زا بودن چیزایی که به ایران وارد میشه:
https://www.hidoctor.ir/212803_آیا-محصولات-تراریخته-سرطان-زا-هستند؟.html
https://www.khabaronline.ir/detail/710620/society/health
فلوراید که کاملا سمی و سرطان زا هست:
https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/135003/پشت-پرده-استفاده-وسیع-آمریکا-از-ماده-سمی-فلوراید-تصاویر
از این موارد خیلی زیاده من هم زیاد شنیدم اما حوصله ی گشتنش رو ندارم
گاگول هایی مثل تو باید برن آمریکاشون رو بپرستن
بعدم از پست من ناراحت میشی میتونی بری گمشی یه جای دیگه نگاه نکنی
لحنمم ببخشید تند بود به تناسب همون کامنتی که گذاشتی جواب دادم
Cthulhu
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اقتصاد مملکت رو هوائه اینا دارن جوش ژلاتین خوکی می زنن
Aramagedon
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Hack-Hook
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let me help you all the gelatin in drugs and cosmetic products have pigs as their origin .
and who says fluoride in normal amount is cancerous ? go and read your article , the article is all about adding fluoride to water not about fluoride being bad. if you use it as you should its good for you , just as your article even admit to that.
then we come to your article about Genetically modified food , that was even more hilarious . the article itself state there is no evidence of adverse effect of such foods on human , it state that Health ministry said that these products are not cancerous. then go and interview Tehran University professor and he state why there is no chance such product have adverse effect on human genome .
but what at the beginning of the article , it state Alzheimer , Autism an Diabetes Mellitus are result of such products without any evidence , let me tell you what is the reason behind those disease . for Alzheimer , its because human interaction with each other have become sort of fucked up , we never read books anymore , we accept anything that media tell us without thinking about it , we stay awake till in the morning ,the schedule is so disastrous that we hardly sleep hours at night , we don't exercise.
for Diabetes Mellitus its not genetically modified that made problem , its how we prepare them , and how we become lethargic and don't do exercise , how we have no time for our child so we give them a cookie to silent them , how the child and grown up become fat and lazy . in short how much energy we get from our food but don't expend.
در ضمن من که قبلا گفتم فحش دادن فقط تربیت خانوادگی را نشان میده یک مورد دیگه اینه که من مقلاتی را که لینک میکنم اول میخونم شما هم اگه این مقالات را اول خونده بوده این پست را نمیگذاشتی . اون رایفی پور هم اگه خیلی نگران جامعه و سرطان و آسیب ژنتیک هستش بره در مورد کاربرد بی رویه سموم در کشاورزی کلیپ بده که ضررها و سرطان زا بودن اون و آسیبی که به ژنوم انسان میزنه همه جا ثابت شده هست
تو میدونی چه کسایی مخالفن بزرگ محصولات تراریخته هستند ؟ اونها صاحبان شرکتهای بزرگ تولید کننده آفت کشهای کشاورزی هستند که سود خودشان را در خطر میبینند
Aramagedon
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Go educate firstly then we can talk
برو یه ذره سوادتو ببر بالا بعدا بیا صحبت کنیم
Hack-Hook
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Please these sensational instagram video don't show anything but lack of understanding.
all chemical poisonous ,all foods are poisonous it's important how much you consume .
https://www.webmd.com/vitamins/ai/ingredientmono-1068/fluoride
a 2016 Study
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4851520/
another 2016 Study that compare Children IQ at the age of 10-12
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5285601/
It show Mean IQ in areas with Middle Fluoride concentration in water is higher than area with lower fluoride concentration and that's higher than area with higher fluoride concentration
participant
Boys
Girls
Boys and Girls
Distribution of IQ Grade based on fluoride concentration
you see you guys have one problem , you see only black and white , you think its like flipping a coin , while in reality medicine is not like that at all. on each matter medicine is like a book and each page of the book it say a different story .
fluoride in high doses is toxic as Iron as Zinc as Vitamin D as Vitamin A as vitamin C , but in appropriate doses it is beneficial for your health .
and honestly you can't educate yourself by sensational video on Instagram or click bait article on various blog over net or article written by some third grade reporter that from reporting only learned how to translate others work and publish them without even understand what he/she is talking about.
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