Iran warns India over Pakistan gas pipeline deal

[Marathaman]

Perhaps, but then it could also be argued that with the 123 agreement, the reliance on the pipeline, if it was constructed, would be minimized and possibly substituted with nuclear energy if the need arose - so it should be a win win deal - unless of course someone is making India say "Uncle"!

The argument of "deficit of trust" is a ridiculous excuse. If trust was the issue, then India should never have joined discussions in the first place. The relationship between the two countries is arguably better currently than it has ever been in the past - so that excuse may have worked back then. Why lead Iran along when you have no intention of ever joining the pipeline? Why damage your relationship with them? Refusing to join now will have only one star spangled reason behind it.

Undoubtedly US is putting pressure on India to stop the deal..its all over the news.

But to say that India is crumbling to the pressure will be premature. Indian bureaucracy's reputation is known to all....it will take its own sweet time to make the decision..all the bribes and kickbacks have to be sorted out rite....

The relationship has improved, but not to the extent of trusting Pakistan to gain control of oil supplies imo. I'm guessing it was iran who proposed the pipeline project.

This relationship is still on the trade-or-not-to-trade and should-we-allow-Indian-movies etc level.

 

[Marathaman]

1.The pipleline is going to pass through Pakistani Province BALOCHISTAN right ?
in that case the only risk to the pipline is miscreants at work in Balochistan and who are these ?
The BLA backed, armed and sponsored by INDIA.
So in that case India would have no other option but to halt activities of BLA atleast in this regard like attack on the gaslines, resultantly gradual end to activities of BLA which indeed India dosnt want.

Why? Is the situation in Balochistan so bad that the regular administration and army cannot enter the region?
The threat is not from militants, but from Pakistan govt. itself.

2. As blain said INDIA Is under immense pressur from US regarding the pipline and saying that it is not important for India would be mistake as pointed out by blain.

Yes it is. The pipeline is important for India, but it is not as important losing leverage over Pakistan.

I'd like to point out though, the US has already agreed to the nuke deal, it will go through with it irrespective of whether the pipeline comes through or not.

3. It is not some love story where two parties go ahead without terms and conditions indeed there are some terms and conditions bounding Pakistan to make sure saftey of the gasline so its realy childish to say that we will blackmail.

Its not about safety or militants, which are unavoidable threats. In a scenario where India and Pakistan decide that dialogue is no longer viable to solve the outstanding issues between the nations, Pakistan will undoubtedly break the agreement and halt the oil supply.

4.India is not in a position to to halt such projects merely on perception of being blackmailed as i said before even if she wants enegry from Central Asian Republics it would be through Pakistan.

Well, I beg to differ. India is not at all dependent on energy from central asian republics.

5. Even India cant not reach CARs without Pakistan and even Can not trade with Afghanistan without Pakistan.

Trade and oil are completely different things...

So it would be more wise to node for it.
Its another matter saving INDO-US nuke deal is more important and for that India can sacrifice the gasline

Again I must repeat, the Nuke deal is not dependent on the pipeline. The only way the nuke deal can fail now is if the present govt. falls, and is not re-elected.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Undoubtedly US is putting pressure on India to stop the deal..its all over the news.

But to say that India is crumbling to the pressure will be premature. Indian bureaucracy's reputation is known to all....it will take its own sweet time to make the decision..all the bribes and kickbacks have to be sorted out rite....

The relationship has improved, but not to the extent of trusting Pakistan to gain control of oil supplies imo. I'm guessing it was iran who proposed the pipeline project.

This relationship is still on the trade-or-not-to-trade and should-we-allow-Indian-movies etc level.

You may have a point about "Indian bureaucracy", but the lukewarm response currently (the bureaucracy should be in the thick of things by participating in the talks and negotiating their kickbacks on the side), means that India is succumbing to the pressure, and it is even more telling that this is happening despite the U.S HOR having already passed the agreement.

With respect to allowing Pakistan to "gain control", if your country is currently importing gas and oil by sea, why wouldn't it be possible to revert to the same means of transport in case of an increase in hostilities? It's not like India is signing away its right to transport oil and gas through sea and handing over its tankers to Pakistan - its just substituting in favor of a less expensive and faster delivery system and should be able to revert to the old system if need be.

 

[Marathaman]

You may have a point about "Indian bureaucracy", but the lukewarm response currently (the bureaucracy should be in the thick of things by participating in the talks and negotiating their kickbacks on the side), means that India is succumbing to the pressure, and it is even more telling that this is happening despite the U.S HOR having already passed the agreement.

Well....lets wait and watch...hopefully the silence from India is either a bureaucratic delay or the politicians are yet to make the decision. Besides, the Indian politicians are too busy fighting over the nuclear deal at the moment, they will probably start fighting over the pipeline after the current round of sparring is over.

With respect to allowing Pakistan to "gain control", if your country is currently importing gas and oil by sea, why wouldn't it be possible to revert to the same means of transport in case of an increase in hostilities? It's not like India is signing away its right to transport oil and gas through sea and handing over its tankers to Pakistan - its just substituting in favor of a less expensive and faster delivery system and should be able to revert to the old system if need be.

It will be possible, but in a war scenario it will not be easy to arrange for supplies at such short notice. Oil prices will definitely rise if Pakistan suddenly decides to halt supplies

Besides, war needs A LOT of oil.

 

[Spring Onion]

Why? Is the situation in Balochistan so bad that the regular administration and army cannot enter the region?
The threat is not from militants, but from Pakistan govt. itself..

That is something we had to look into not you even than the activities had been halted as India is too mucb busy in proxies against Pakistan at our Wester Border.
But lets not go off topic. Open another thread why what is the situation of regular administeration there and i will debate it there.

Yes it is. The pipeline is important for India, but it is not as important losing leverage over Pakistan.

I'd like to point out though, the US has already agreed to the nuke deal, it will go through with it irrespective of whether the pipeline comes through or not.
Again I must repeat, the Nuke deal is not dependent on the pipeline. The only way the nuke deal can fail now is if the present govt. falls, and is not re-elected

lolz leverage phobia so you mean its just an Ego problem well i dont think so the Indian government is thinking so.
As far the nuke deal it has already been cleared so there is no question of being halted by this pipeline.
The only point im trying to say is the same nuke deal is leading to Indian back off (if any in future) from the IPI gasline.
There is no other reason in sight for the moment as to why India should not go ahead with the project.

Its not about safety or militants, which are unavoidable threats. In a scenario where India and Pakistan decide that dialogue is no longer viable to solve the outstanding issues between the nations, Pakistan will undoubtedly break the agreement and halt the oil supply.

Not Pakistan decided only India is saying so.
We had and we are still trying to carry on the dialogue depsite INDIAN cheating on Siachin.
And its always India been saying that we should carry on other traits putting aside the outstanding issue. Now what happend ?
Only that india is under perssure from US.
As far breaking the deal well as i said ealier the deal wont be in the air indeed there must be conditions to bound Pakistan to keep the deal and there must be some heavy penality in case of breach.
Remember its an Internaional agreement not some Laloo Panjoo street deal.

Well, I beg to differ. India is not at all dependent on energy from central asian republics.
Trade and oil are completely different things...

who is saying you are only dependent on CARs
But they have major chunk to supply pluse this IPI.

and you mean we can not halt trade of India with Afghanistan through our land ???

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

It will be possible, but in a war scenario it will not be easy to arrange for supplies at such short notice. Oil prices will definitely rise if Pakistan suddenly decides to halt supplies

Besides, war needs A LOT of oil.

That eventuality can also be catered to by building up a strategic reserve to be tapped into while oil starts coming in by sea again. There are a lot of ways to ensure that a "shutoff" will have a minimal impact. Either way, an "ocean war" will have to be won by India before oil and gas supplies by sea are ensured. It can be argued that at that point, the ability to blockade Pakistan would force a reopening of the pipeline. If India cannot win the ocean war, then whether it imports by sea or land, the supplies will most likely dwindle.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

A gentleman once told me something to the effect of:

"the best way to stop two sworn enemies from killing each other, is to ensure that their hands are buried deep in each others pockets".

 

[Marathaman]

A gentleman once told me something to the effect of:

"the best way to stop two sworn enemies from killing each other, is to ensure that their hands are buried deep in each others pockets".

Yeah...the gentleman...lol....is right.

The only way to stop Ind-Pak from killing each other is to make them economically interdependent. It is to be seen if the politicians (and citizens, mind you) from both countries will allow that to happen.

 

[TOPGUN]

To my indian friends or any others in all due repsect think about wat u guys say really saying dum thing slike Pakistan will black mail India we dont you need u nor Iran it is out of good jester and in India's interest to join and will also inhance peace in the region as if you dont know for your info India has no gas wat so ever so if anyone is in need its Inda not Pakistan nor Iran get you r facts right also i would to say that i have been seeing that we are getting alot of no ****'s with negative points i would like to speak up unlike others on this site please if you cant be friendly then you dont have to be here lets be mature people thanks if some one things other wise please speak you dont be bashful lol well those are my thoughs other then everyone have a good one Pakistan zindabad to the fulliest.

 

[Marathaman]

Lets not kid ourselves here...if the two countries can share water which is even more of a lifeline than gas, then not sure where you are going with this? Lets call a spade a spade...the problem is not India's dependence on Pakistan (we get to make a billion dollars a year just on transit fees and this amount is to go up in the future), rather its the US pressure on India. The day the Iranians see a change in leadership, you would see Indians extending the deal to themselves.

Well...the water...as you know...comes from India. Besides, water is totally different from oil.
Stopping water is not an option in any scenario...it is a totally outrageous thing to do. Stopping oil is however a very likely scenario in war like situation

But you are right...hypothetically the pipeline is a "peace pipeline". It will reduce the possibility ofwar.

Also contrary to your points, ventures of this sort are very effective CBMs and actually pile up the collective cost of going to war. These are the kind of things that you need to see happen more if there is to be lasting peace. The usual hawks will cry about this threat or that threat, but in the end, this is the most dependable, affordable supply of gas for India and has a huge benefit for Pakistan. Also India has other (although less optimal) options in case of some cutoff. So to assume that this is India's only energy lifeline would be another mistake.

It depends on how the administration handles actually. if the deal comes through, hopefully they will do enough to ensure that India is not held ransom in case the agreement breaks down.

 

[Awesome]

I have a question. Why is that Pakistan is so eager to include India in the deal ? Why don't they just go alone with Iran already ? Is it because Pakistan intends on using the pipeline to blackmail India in the future ? Or is it the lure of free transit fee ? Or is it both ? My guess is that its both. Brotherly and righteous feelings are defenitely not the cause.

Anyways, i was never in favor of the IPI. Better for India to lay an undersea pipeline, though hugely expensive, but still better than handing its jugular to Pakistan. Other options is to keep using tankers as it is today.

How is transit fee, free?

I'm not in favor of IP(I) either.

 

[blain2]

Yes it is. The pipeline is important for India, but it is not as important losing leverage over Pakistan.

You have to have leverage first for you to lose it. India has no leverage over Pakistan whatsoever. If anything, the pipeline would give India some economic leverage over Pakistan due to the transit fees. Pakistani side has projected that gradually, the transit fees could increase from around $1 billion to double digits over the next three decades.

Its not about safety or militants, which are unavoidable threats. In a scenario where India and Pakistan decide that dialogue is no longer viable to solve the outstanding issues between the nations, Pakistan will undoubtedly break the agreement and halt the oil supply.

Hmm its funny how you put the onus of the breaking of agreement on Pakistan. There are precedents set by India as well where the Indian side went back on its words...so if there is trust deficit then it exists on both sides. The issue is do you want to live in the past or try out something different, something that can be used to entangle both of these countries in a way where one's success is also a good thing for the other and the opposite. I think I have pointed this out in my earlier post and I do see that this is a workable solution and Pakistan can ensure supply to India and do so without threat of disruption. There have been certain precedents already set on these kinds of dealings.

It will be possible, but in a war scenario it will not be easy to arrange for supplies at such short notice. Oil prices will definitely rise if Pakistan suddenly decides to halt supplies

Besides, war needs A LOT of oil.

Seems like you are pretty eager for one...

 

[blain2]

It depends on how the administration handles actually. if the deal comes through, hopefully they will do enough to ensure that India is not held ransom in case the agreement breaks down.

Right...so again, both the 123 agreement and this oil pipeline are a win-win for India the way I see it. If GoI can put a check on the US pressure then Iran-Pakistan-India are all in business. This is a classic case of a global rivalry coming in the way of regional cooperation.

 

[Marathaman]

You have to have leverage first for you to lose it. India has no leverage over Pakistan whatsoever. If anything, the pipeline would give India some economic
leverage over Pakistan due to the transit fees. Pakistani side has projected that gradually, the transit fees could increase from around $1 billion to double digits over the next three decades.

The political leverage gained by pakistan outweighs any economic dependence on India.

Hmm its funny how you put the onus of the breaking of agreement on Pakistan. There are precedents set by India as well where the Indian side went back on its words...so if there is trust deficit then it exists on both sides. The issue is do you want to live in the past or try out something different, something that can be used to entangle both of these countries in a way where one's success is also a good thing for the other and the opposite. I think I have pointed this out in my earlier post and I do see that this is a workable solution and Pakistan can ensure supply to India and do so without threat of disruption. There have been certain precedents already set on these kinds of dealings.

Oil is a very strange thing....

Seems like you are pretty eager for one...

One bitten twice shy.

 

[mustang]

I was wondering is the gas supply from Sui not able to provide for Pakistans needs that it has to get gas from Iran and can someone give values , costs etc of the project ...