Iran Wants 400 New Planes by 2025 If Sanctions End

[HAIDER]

Iran is looking to buy 400 passenger planes in the next 10 years to upgrade its aging fleet if Western sanctions imposed over its controversial nuclear program are lifted, the country's top aviation official said Wednesday.

The remark by Ali Reza Jahangirian of Iran's Civil Aviation Organization reflects Tehran's interest in attracting foreign investment and upgrading its creaking aviation industry.

It comes amid a new climate in the country following the election last June of new President Hassan Rouhani who has focused his efforts on reviving Iran's faltering economy.

"Iranian airlines will be ready to buy 40 jets a year," Jahangirian said, without disclosing specifics of what could be a multi-billion dollar project.

Jahangirian also said Iran has received "very positive signals" from Western companies, including Boeing Co. and General Electric Co. about getting new spare parts. Both Boeing and GE have said the U.S. Treasury Department has given them licenses to export to Iran.

The licenses for spare parts were made possible under a temporary nuclear deal struck last November between Iran and six world powers. Under it, Tehran is to halt some aspects of its nuclear program in return for the lifting of some sanctions — including restrictions on sale of commercial plane parts and services to Iran.

Such a sale to Iran would be the first publicly known dealing between U.S. airspace companies and Tehran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the pro-U.S. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and brought clerics to power.

Iran and the six-nation group — the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany — are currently negotiating a comprehensive, permanent deal that could lift all sanctions on Iran while removing any possibility for Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon.

Jahangirian said that out of Iran's 250 commercial planes, about 150 are flying while the rest are grounded due to lack of spare parts.

Jahangirian also said that Iran has taken some "technical" steps in preparing for a resumption of direct flights with the United States but that more needs to be done before that becomes a reality.

Direct flights between the two countries were cut after the 1979 revolution.
Iran Wants 400 New Planes by 2025 If Sanctions End - ABC News

 

[Luftwaffe]

400? even if they buy the small passenger planes for say 90m...do the maths 90000000X400=36000000000 or $36B

At the most Iran would require 120 on long term basis. Unless Iran wants to buy extra and park them for any possible sanctions.

Maybe Iran should buy 200 Passenger planes and save rest to buy Military planes from xyz once sanctions are lifted.

 

[Fotol]

400? even if they buy the small passenger planes for say 90m...do the maths 90000000X400=36000000000 or $36B

At the most Iran would require 120 on long term basis. Unless Iran wants to buy extra and park them for any possible sanctions.

Maybe Iran should buy 200 Passenger planes and save rest to buy Military planes from xyz once sanctions are lifted.

We have enough money, so thats not a issue. Maybe the 400, not all are passenger planes but some fighter jets aswel. We will see

 

[rahi2357]

400? even if they buy the small passenger planes for say 90m...do the maths 90000000X400=36000000000 or $36B

At the most Iran would require 120 on long term basis. Unless Iran wants to buy extra and park them for any possible sanctions.

Maybe Iran should buy 200 Passenger planes and save rest to buy Military planes from xyz once sanctions are lifted.

the passenger fleet of iran is now more than 200 planes and by developing more airports we will need at least 400 planes soon . 36$ ? maybe but money is no object we have the 17th gdp of the world

and the news is confirmed in most of iranian news networks

 

[Luftwaffe]

the passenger fleet of iran is now more than 200 planes and by developing more airports we will need at least 400 planes soon . 36$ ? maybe but money is no object we have the 17th gdp of the world

and the news is confirmed in most of iranian news networks

I understand but it is also a fact your currency has no value to poor value imagine $36B converted into Iranian rial. Any deal of $36B spread on 20 years makes sense but even on 10 years it is expensive.

 

[rahi2357]

I understand but it is also a fact your currency has no value to poor value imagine $36B converted into Iranian rial. Any deal of $36B spread on 20 years makes sense but even on 10 years it is expensive.

iran's GDP is about 500 billion dollars each year. divide 36 b$ to 10 = 3.6 B$
now divide 500 B $ to 3.6 B $
that's not even one percent of our GDP
by the way i think it would be less than 36B$ since those planes include small planes for near local uses

 

[rmi5]

buying 400 passenger aircrafts?!!!
Are you on a drug or something? Do you know how much it costs?

 

[Sam1980]

buying 400 passenger aircrafts?!!!
Are you on a drug or something? Do you know how much it costs?

Well, Iran has one of the oldest airline fleet in the world, if the sanctions were to be dropped, Iran could easily afford them.

 

[rmi5]

Well, Iran has one of the oldest airline fleet in the world, if the sanctions were to be dropped, Iran could easily afford them.

Non-sense dude. As an example 747 costs around 350 million $. so 400 of them would be 140 billion dollars, which cannot be funded even in non sanction situations. At the best case, it needs around 20 years of financing to finish buying these amount of aircrafts.
Anyway, I think @MarkusS is working at airbus. what's your opinion about the price of this amount of aircrafts? can you give us some rough estimate about the cost of renovating Iran's passenger fleet, and airports and other stuff? Thanks man

 

[Sam1980]

Non-sense dude. As an example 747 costs around 350 million $. so 400 of them would be 140 billion dollars, which cannot be funded even in non sanction situations. At the best case, it needs around 20 years of financing to finish buying these amount of aircrafts.

The initial report says 10 years, they don't want to buy all of them altogether, I know 10 years might be a stretch but it could be done. It also says "if sanctions are dropped". Moreover, Iran doesn't need to buy 100 Boeing 747s, they didn't really specify the type of planes they intent to buy. But if this happens, its good for the USA economy.

 

[rmi5]

The initial report says 10 years, they don't want to buy all of them altogether, I know 10 years might be a stretch but it could be done. It also says "if sanctions are dropped". Moreover, Iran doesn't need to buy 100 Boeing 747s, they didn't really specify the type of planes they intent to buy. But if this happens, its good for the USA economy.

Let's wait for @MarkusS to give us his cost estimate, then I can roughly predict how much of time is needed to provide the required money.
Anyway, this money was supposed to be spent on 35 years and not in a short amount of time.

 

[Sam1980]

Anyway, this money was supposed to be spent on 35 years and not in a short amount of time.

My reply to you was based on the 10 year time-frame of the report.

 

[rmi5]

My reply to you was based on the 10 year time-frame of the report.

Yup, I understood it. But I believe that it will need at least 20-25 years to complete this plan. that's my very rough estimate. Iran cannot provide more than 5-7 billion dollars in a year for renovating this industry. even I consider 5-7 as a very optimistic prediction. Even if sanctions are lifted, oil industry needs around 100 billion dollars for oil fields, around 50 billion dollars for gas industry, and around 50+ billion dollar for petrochem and transportation pipelines, and ... Iran's military also needs at least around 70-100 billion to fully renovate itself. Electricity lines, and water industry, and sewage is getting very old, and by adding building costs of the water pipelines from dams to farms, it needs around 100 billion dollars as well. Iran needs much more money to renovate its smaller factories and also finally build more steel producing complexes. if you add all these numbers, you would see that you should not over-estimate the amount of oil revenues, even if sanctions get fully removed.

 

[MarkusS]

Non-sense dude. As an example 747 costs around 350 million $. so 400 of them would be 140 billion dollars, which cannot be funded even in non sanction situations. At the best case, it needs around 20 years of financing to finish buying these amount of aircrafts.
Anyway, I think @MarkusS is working at airbus. what's your opinion about the price of this amount of aircrafts? can you give us some rough estimate about the cost of renovating Iran's passenger fleet, and airports and other stuff? Thanks man

I´m no expert for airports and infrastructure but when you look at the list price at Airbus you can see that the price goes from 71,9 million $ for the small A318 up too 414,4 million $ for the A 380. But those are list prices and the price the airline pays is usually not that high. It depends on "rank" the airline has as a customer, as well as negotiations, further contracts and the size of the contract. Iran has an incredible old fleet of airplanes. To be able to compete would mean a complete fleet replacement. Thats a massive program and i´m sure some price drops would be possible. It depends what is Irans goal? What do they plan, what do they need? How should their new fleet look like?

Airlines often use Airbus and Boeing, simply to avoid a monopoly. So this allows price drops too. Another aspect is, what interior the airline choses. An A380 can also be much more expensive and cost you 600 million $ (same counts for the new 747-8i) if you chose a specific interior. Another large amount of costs are the engines. Those are bought direct from the producer (RR, GE, P&W and so on). I think a good option for Iran would be a hybrid strategy. They could buy new airplanes but also lease new airplanes in the beginning phase of their replacement project. I also think it could be possible to buy some brandnew aircrafts as well as some used once, which are much cheaper. Having 6 - 8 year old jets from Lufthansa / Air Berlin or BA is still a very good deal and those airplanes are in top conditions.

I doubt that Iran has the will and the public support to pull up a mass order like Emirates. The costs are gargantuan and i think it would be hard to sell such a project to the public there. So a mix would be best. Some new airplanes, some used ones and leasing.

 

[senheiser]

iran should better only buy russian planes since america and eu can always impose sanction on them, they are also more reliable and have a lower price