Iran orders 250 Su-30 MK's

[Neo]

Iam not much with numbers but if the country produces 4million brls oil/day and sells it to Europeans at $76.00/brl.every day only accepts money in euros for some stupid reason i would think they can come up with the money.

Cheetah,
Oil price will surge and settle around $90 pb by the end of next year, both Iran and Russia have a barter policy so money would not be a problem, its rather the number which seems unrealistic.
Russia can expedite production and build an final assembly line in Iran, still it would take atleast ten years to build a fleet of 250 Flankers!

Btw, Iran is not the first country to trade in Euro's, many others have done that already including Singapore since the Euro is more stable.

1)question is can Russians afford to say no?

Yes, she can, but she won't! Russia has added new customers like Mexico, Venezuela, Algeria and Malayia to her Flankers export list, the Mig-29 is exported to even more countries...so the industry has a healthy backlog and future is looking good.
Selling Flankers to Iran will be more of a political statement towards US rather than a financial one.

2)would Russians say no or play games when they are trying to become major player in arms.if they play games who will trust them.

Russia is seriously on the rise, poised to reclaim her super power status. Its not a game but reality.

3)if India decides to go American way with there fighter jet purchase.can the American convince Russia not to sell.while taking a big bite out of Russian arms exports.so far Putin's is playing a hell of a good businessman and making money for Russia right left and center from kicking out major oil companies to signing new deals with Europe for Russian gas.

Russia has a history of making controvercial deals and arming regions to piss off America; They've supplied advanced weapons to Syria, Yugoslavia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Venezuela, Cuba etc. Why should they listen to US now?
Even if the Indian deal does to America, Russia will always be safeguarding its weapon industry by arming regions outside US'circle of influence.

Just my 2 cents...

 

[Chrome9]

will try and hunt down the article in question as it was a while ago. Whilst Pak has spent a large amount on the purchases you mention you forget that A lot of it came as EDA (free) and the real term costs were offset by the billions Pak received from America.
The idea that Iran may face a war soon would not really affect this, as any order would barely have begun within the next few years.

Well the articles you have given have indicated that Iran spends lower per capita on military than most of it's neighbours and rivals Israel. One claims that it's spending is about 6.5 billion dollars. Compare that to Pakistan's 4.5 billion + billions in aid + procurement of hardware under EDA and i'd say that amounts to Iran and Pakistan being roughly the same. Though Iran still has a larger PPP and it's foreign reserves are pegged at 50 billion dollars compare that to Pakistan's 16 billion. IMO due to the circumstances surrounding Iran they should be able to match Pakistan's military spending though the timeline and feasabilty can easily be questioned regarding any major procurment.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Iran#Other_statistics
http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=8958

 

[Always Neutral]

Cheetah,
Oil price will surge and settle around $90 pb by the end of next year, both Iran and Russia have a barter policy so money would not be a problem, its rather the number which seems unrealistic...

All the points you have posted are quite realistic and the only issue which I am not sure is the barter deal you are talking about.

Firstly the days of barter days are over and Russians want Euros even from old friends like India.

Secondly Iran is already lagging back in payments on its civilian nuclear projects to Russia so why would Russia double that exposure.

Thirdly the only international commodity Iran is blessed with is crude oil and the Russians are the largest exporters to Europe and are self sufficient in that. Infact Iranian crude going out the market will benefit them immensely as they can increase their supplies to Europe.

Regards

 

[JF-17 Thunder]

- Deleted -​

 

[Keysersoze]

Hold on! theres a few points that sound like a load of crap. Iran "demanding" Israeli avionics? what are the chances of that? And first deliveries in 2007? At best it would be a handful aircraft.

 

[Keysersoze]

I just took a look at the source as well....does not look reputable

 

[Keysersoze]

Actually with the U.S. deals for Saudi and the increased funding for Israel, there is more likelihood of this deal seeing fruition.

 

[Averroes]

If this article is authentic that Iran is going to buy Su-30's then it's a good move, and a long awaited upgrade to their air force. I do not think it will go through.

 

[Averroes]

Reports: Iran to buy jets from Russia

Israel is looking into reports that Russia plans to sell 250 advanced long-range Sukhoi-30 fighter jets to Iran in an unprecedented billion-dollar deal.

According to reports, in addition to the fighter jets, Teheran also plans to purchase a number of aerial fuel tankers that are compatible with the Sukhoi and capable of extending its range by thousands of kilometers. Defense officials said the Sukhoi sale would grant Iran long-range offensive capabilities.

Government officials voiced concern over the reports. They said Russia could be trying to compete with the United States, which announced over the weekend a billion-dollar arms sale to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

Despite Israeli and US opposition, Russia recently supplied Iran with advanced antiaircraft systems used to protect Teheran's nuclear installations. At the time, Moscow said it reserved the right to sell Iran weapons, such as the antiaircraft system, that were of a defensive nature.

The Sukhoi-30 is a two-seat multi-role fighter jet and bomber capable of operating at significant distances from home base and in poor weather conditions. The aircraft enjoys a wide range of combat capabilities and is used for air patrol, air defense, ground attacks, enemy air defense suppression and air-to-air combat.

After years of negotiations, the Indian Air Force in 1996 purchased 40 Sukhoi-30s and in 2000 acquired the license from the company to manufacture an additional 140 aircraft.

from jerusalem post where wolf blitzer used to work for, zionist liar
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1185379034835&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

 

[enzo]

If this article is authentic that Iran is going to buy Su-30's then it's a good move, and a long awaited upgrade to their air force. I do not think it will go through.

. i think that the deal will go through !!

iran is feeling the heat from the U.S

but i don't think the first deliveries will be in 2007 itself. at best the first aircrafts will arrive in early 2008.

.

 

[niaz]

Iam not much with numbers but if the country produces 4million brls oil/day and sells it to Europeans at $76.00/brl.every day only accepts money in euros for some stupid reason i would think they can come up with the money.
1)question is can Russians afford to say no?
2)would Russians say no or play games when they are trying to become major player in arms.if they play games who will trust them.
3)if India decides to go American way with there fighter jet purchase.can the American convince Russia not to sell.while taking a big bite out of Russian arms exports.so far Putin's is playing a hell of a good businessman and making money for Russia right left and center from kicking out major oil companies to signing new deals with Europe for Russian gas.

Somehow I missed this post. As some one who deals with National Iranian Oil company (NIOC) regularly. I can set some records straight.

Firstly, Iranian crudes dont sell at $76 per bbl. Iran has 3 main crudes namely Iran Light, Iran Heavy and Frozon blend. All crudes are sold at official prices linked Oman/Dubai or Brent and have different prices for different destinations. Average price of the Iran light ( most expensive) is around $70 per barrel FOB.

Iran however exports large quantities of fuel oil and condensate as well. According to NIOC sources Iran is earning around $40-billion per year from the export of crude. Iran is also one of the largest producer of petrochemicals and total yearly foreign exchange earnings could be around $45-billion.

NIOC was asking all buyers; including the company I work for; to open L/C in US Dollars until last year. However since they have had the bad experience of all their Forex Reserves frozen by the US during the Hostage crisis. With the threat of US sanctions looming again due to Iran's nuclear ambitions, they have switched to Euros.

Since a lot of Iranian Reserves are in Euoros and in different countries, actual value is difficult to measure. As a guesstimate, on account of huge import bill, Iran's Foreign Exchange Reserve Fund is not large by todays standards ( around $20-billion). Iran is therefore in a position to pay for the the purchase of defence equipment if considered essential to national security.

 

[Neo]

Thanks for your post Sir, there's a question I've been willing to ask although its offtopic.
Why does every oil producing country names it crude oil a 'blend' and why are there so many varities when basically its all crude oil.
Sudan has Sweet Nile Blend, UK produces Brent, Robeco Blend is produced in Russia etc..
Hope I don't sound too ignorant but to me crude oil is oil till its refined.

 

[niaz]

Iam not much with numbers but if the country produces 4million brls oil/day and sells it to Europeans at $76.00/brl.every day only accepts money in euros for some stupid reason i would think they can come up with the money.
1)question is can Russians afford to say no?
2)would Russians say no or play games when they are trying to become major player in arms.if they play games who will trust them.
3)if India decides to go American way with there fighter jet purchase.can the American convince Russia not to sell.while taking a big bite out of Russian arms exports.so far Putin's is playing a hell of a good businessman and making money for Russia right left and center from kicking out major oil companies to signing new deals with Europe for Russian gas.

Somehow I missed this post. As some one who deals with National Iranian Oil company (NIOC) regularly. I can set some records straight.

Firstly, Iranian crudes dont sell at $76 per bbl. Iran has 3 main crudes namely Iran Light, Iran Heavy and Frozon blend. All crudes are sold at official prices linked Oman/Dubai or Brent and have different prices for different destinations. Average price of the Iran light ( most expensive) is around $70 per barrel FOB.

Iran however exports large quantities of fuel oil and condensate as well. According to NIOC sources Iran is earning around $40-billion per year from the export of crude. Iran is also one of the largest producer of petrochemicals and total yearly foreign exchange earnings could be around $45-billion.

NIOC was asking all buyers; including the company I work for; to open L/C in US Dollars until last year. However since they have had the bad experience of all their Forex Reserves frozen by the US during the Hostage crisis. With the threat of US sanctions looming again due to Iran's nuclear ambitions, they have switched to Euros.

Since a lot of Iranian Reserves are in Euoros and in different countries, actual value is difficult to measure. As a guesstimate, on account of huge import bill, Iran's Foreign Exchange Reserve Fund is not large by todays standards ( around $20-billion). Iran is therefore in a position to pay for the the purchase of defence equipment if considered essential to national security.

 

[blitz]

The question still stands. What does Iran hope to achieve with this ? Its major threat is the USAF and USN. SU-30 or no SU-30, Iranian AF wouldn't last two weeks, neither would their air bases. I fail to understand the logic behind this procurement. Unless Iran prepares for a war with its neighbors.

Maybe our resident military experts Key or Niaz sir can explain.

 

[niaz]

Thanks for your post Sir, there's a question I've been willing to ask although its offtopic.
Why does every oil producing country names it crude oil a 'blend' and why are there so many varities when basically its all crude oil.
Sudan has Sweet Nile Blend, UK produces Brent, Robeco Blend is produced in Russia etc..
Hope I don't sound too ignorant but to me crude oil is oil till its refined.

An oilfield, basically a porous rock formation which holds the oil ( normally under pressure) can be either a single structure or a mixture of smaller formations located in a specified area. As an average well will produce say about 5,000 barrels per day. Whereas most large oil fields produce 1- million barrels per day ( except Ghawar in Saudi Arabia which peaked at 5.7 - million bbls per day) making it 200 wells. Their production is blended together.That is why most countries call their oil as 'Blend'. It could even be a number of small fields of different quality but blended to produce a uniform quality to the buyer.

Crude fron each well of the same formation may be of slightly different quality. Even the production from the same well changes over time. Over a long period (say 5 to 10 years) oil will tend to get heavier.