@Stryker1982
Don't you think Israel would preemptively use Jerichos or Popeye SLCM on Iran if they felt they was close to completing a nuclear weapon?
I think Iran is very open and considerate to the idea that they would use nuclear Jerichos to prevent Iran from achieving military parity with them with regards to achieving nuclear deterrence. People complain why Iran haven't attack Israel directly, seemingly forgetting they are a nuclear armed state with enough warheads to destroy every Arab, Turkish and Persian city with a population over 500,000 around them. I've done so much OSINT on this subject because of the seriousness of it.
If they were to choose, they would use Jericho's because SLCMs may be too easy to intercept. Keep in mind, such weapons would be used to attack fortified nuclear facilities that are buried under mountains in an attempt to destroy the nuclear program. Therefore, the radiation would not be an airburst, but on the soil and among the air we breathe
Consider this interesting thing that most people do not know especially our Pakistani friends on the forum.
An attack on Natanz nuclear facility will spread nuclear radiation to Afghanistan, but mostly Pakistan and India, the nuclear radiation in Iran will be blown through the sparely populated areas of eastern Iran. The vast majority of people who will die would be Pakistanis and Indians.
This may prove to be a serious problem for the west on the decision making table. Can you imagine a nuclear armed Pakistan/India dealing with this problem?
They will need serious international justification for an action like that. It appears for now they would like to collapse the government from the inside through tough economic sanctions and unrest.
That being said, Iran does have several battalions of S-300PMU2s and other high-altitude SAMs (Bavar-373) which would complicate things for them. Israel appears reluctant to attack Iran for the time being, but it would be the only way to stop Iran if Iran says they will enrich at 90%. They will have trouble reaching so deep into Iran even with tankers, the risks are very high assuming they fly from Israel, and any shoot down will have a near 0% chance of rescue. Jericho's are their main way, and Iran has been making the means to counter this threat as much as possible.
I think they could do it if we enrich to 90%, this would be the last resort that the west doesn't seem to want to do, so they may do it because Israel is always given a free pass. The western world thinks military solution to Iran with their own means is " too late". Not my words.
The defense minister of Iran has said, that they've devised military plans to raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground. Not just words, but an operational plan. Whether that is true or not doesn't matter too much, but it does indicate that Iran is seriously considering a worst case scenario as razing a city whether it'd be using conventional ballistic missiles or chemical/dirty warheaded missiles would probably only be done as a response to a nuclear attack. This might be why they are deterred so far.
