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Researcher: Iran may become new economic superpower
- The country is heading into the "good company", says Ole Gunnar Austvik at NUPI and BI.
Eliezer Laustsen
Published: 07/14/2015 - 1:46 p.m. Updated: 07/14/2015 - 2:13 p.m.
After nearly two years of talks, the parties confirmed in Iran talks on Tuesday that it has achieved
consensus on a new nuclear deal.
According to the agreement Iran winding down its nuclear program in exchange for the sanctions against the country lifted (see fact box).
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The contents of the nuclear treaty
* The agreement provides international transparency in the Iranian nuclear program.
* Iran has agreed that UN sanctions will be restored within 65 days if the agreement is broken.
* UN arms embargo shall comprise a further five years.
* Missile sanctions against Iran will not be suspended for eight years.
* In exchange for access shall be economic sanctions against Iran repealed.
* The text to be adopted as UN Security Council resolution, but it is expected to be a formality since all five permanent members of the Council participated in the negotiations with Iran.
* Agreement to be implemented from the first half of 2016.
(Sources: Reuters, NTB, Ritzau) (© NTB)
It opens opportunities for both Iran and the rest of the world, says senior researcher and professor Ole Gunnar Austvik BI and Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
He believes the country forward might be the Middle East's emerging economic superpower.
- Iran is now part of the international economic community. It means that the country is both a market and an exporter. Economically, this is a country with huge potential, says Austvik to DN.
In other words, Iran is moving into the "good company" again, underlines the scientist.
- Thus they get a political games, they are simply a stronger country, think Austvik adding:
- Iran could become the economic superpower in their area.
Larger resource base
Today it is Iran's neighboring countries - the world's largest oil exporter Saudi Arabia, which is considered to be the Middle East's economic head.But when the sanctions against Iran are repealed, it is the latter that will have the highest possible position to grow economically, says the professor.
- Iran is the major country in this area - both in the area, demographic, cultural and historical. They have a very large resource base with a large population and high level of expertise, says Austvik.
He explains that Saudi Arabia has a more one-sided industrial structure and that country far greater extent depends on the hiring of labor. DN has previously reported that
Saudi Arabian oil companies now are looking for Americans with experience in shale oil.
- In Iran, the country's own population is the foundation. In this way, the much greater breadth of resource base and expertise. Iran has the potential of many more things than just oil, says Austvik.
Tourism is among other industries country have talked about betting on, according to the researcher.
Uncertainties
Although the agreement is ready, you will not
get Iran sanctions relief before the agreement is implemented. Such implementation will take months, writes
Bloomberg News .
The challenge for the country in future will be phasing in the new commercial life, think BI professor.
How the country will come to shoes on the new freedom will depend on how the agreement is approved by the various parties, what it contains and not least how it is implemented.
Austvik therefore believe there is some uncertainty about how the US will react to the Iranian sanctions softened.
This is because US allies in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Israel, might become economically outdone by Iran when the country gets more freedom.
- There is an uncertainty as to how the balance goes. I am sure that the US is trying to balance all those things over on his side, he said.
Public Done
Scientist Halvor Kippe the Armed Forces Research Institute, stressed that the agreement means a gradual end to the crippling sanctions for Iran.
- Not only the nuclear and missile programs, but especially also the petroleum and financial sectors. Almost as important means that their controversial program to enrich uranium gets international recognition, he writes in an email to DN.
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has promised that the agreement will be published in full on Tuesday.
Kippe think, however, it is largely based on what they agreed in Lausanne. He is excited about increasing transparency and research will come to reveal things that Iran has so far denied.
- Increased transparency makes it more difficult for Iran to produce weapons-enriched uranium in secret, and limited capacity in plants means that it takes longer for Iran on producing relevant quantities of weapons-enriched uranium in the known plants if they suddenly decide it in the future. There is also a very ambitious and concrete plan to resolve the question of bygone research on nuclear weapons design between Iran and IAEA. It will be interesting to see whether the latter will reveal things that Iran so far has denied.
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