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Iran and Pakistan- Prospects of future relations after the nuke deal

I think, it is hard to say what will exactly India do a "bigger role in strategic port more than 8 billion dollars". Pakistan likely get wrong assumption and possible delay projects with Iran,
China is investing more than $40 billions in Gwadar and you are concerned about $8 billions? Is it too much for such an important project? Don't you see it's a bit hypocritical to look at it this way? Bigger role means allowing more investment!! Please do not judge based on hypothetical creations.

they already mention to have naval port available in Iran.

This is what happens when you believe anything you read on internet dear.

Iran's constitution forbids any form of foreign military presence and base on Iranian soil, be it India, Russia, Pakistan, Americans or Martians.
 
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China is investing more than $40 billions in Gwadar and you are concerned about $8 billions? Is it too much for such an important project? Don't you see it's a bit hypocritical to look at it this way? Bigger role means allowing more investment!! Please do not judge based on hypothetical creations.



This is what happens when you believe anything you read on internet dear.

Iran's constitution forbids any form of foreign military presence and base on Iranian soil, be it India, Russia, Pakistan, Americans or Martians.

Let me ask you, China is your enemy? Why would China to invest in Gwadar? It is basically to avoid US intervention in South China Sea and reduce business transportations costs from thousand miles away in Middle East, it makes sense to develop Gwadar. Why would Iran concerned about China's plan? Is China against Iran?

Ah, I apologize I didn't know about constitution, that's great. I hope Iran and Pakistan should cooperate more and build trust with each other to avoid misunderstanding.
 
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Let me ask you, China is your enemy? Why would China to invest in Gwadar? It is basically to avoid US intervention in South China Sea and reduce business transportations costs from thousand miles away in Middle East, it makes sense to develop Gwadar. Why would Iran concerned about China's plan? Is China against Iran?

The same applies to development of Chabahar. There is nothing for Pakistan to worry about here, especially security reason. We will NEVER allow any country to use our land for hostile activities against any of the neighbors, and India itself would never do such thing, because it will shoot itself in the foot first.

No China is not our enemy. But let's assume, U.S was developing Gwadar. Could we complain to Pakistan and try to stop the deal? As long as there wouldn't be any hostile U.S activity towards Iran?
 
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Let's not get carried away. The past 35 years experience shows that Pakistan has every reason to be cynical about Iran. I wonder if the intensity of proxy warfare would increase now that the Iranian economy is gonna improve...
 
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The same applies to development of Chabahar. There is nothing for Pakistan to worry about here, especially security reason. We will NEVER allow any country to use our land for hostile activities against any of the neighbors, and India itself would never do such thing, because it will shoot itself in the foot first.

No China is not our enemy. But let's assume, U.S was developing Gwadar. Could we complain to Pakistan and try to stop the deal? As long as there wouldn't be any hostile U.S activity towards Iran?

Thanks man for great explanation, I got it.
 
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Let's not get carried away. The past 35 years experience shows that Pakistan has every reason to be cynical about Iran. I wonder if the intensity of proxy warfare would increase now that the Iranian economy is gonna improve...

It is Pakistan that has conducted proxy warfare by arming Talibans in Afghanistan resulting in death of nearly million people. Pakistan should have joined with Iran, Turkemenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to bring peace in Afghanistan. The attacks on Iranian border guards is indication that Pakistan is either unwilling or unable to control militancy in Balochistan. The Shamsi airbase must be fully under Pakistan sovereignty and UAE must vacate that base.
 
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It is Pakistan that has conducted proxy warfare by arming Talibans in Afghanistan resulting in death of nearly million people. Pakistan should have joined with Iran, Turkemenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to bring peace in Afghanistan. The attacks on Iranian border guards is indication that Pakistan is either unwilling or unable to control militancy in Balochistan. The Shamsi airbase must be fully under Pakistan sovereignty and UAE must vacate that base.

You're giving Pakistan too much credit. Pakistani intelligence was purged of any such capabilities from mid 90s. Read Ikram Sehgal. Death of million people? Where did you get this figure. However, as of now Pakistan is playing a drastic role in creating peace in Afghanistan, the ball is in your court now.
 
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@VelocuR and other Pakistanis here, once you enter into a contract, it becomes binding on all parties involved. The contract for Chabahar was done way back in 2003, but moved slowly due to sanctions as explained in the article.

Another thing, regional connectivity takes money, a lot of money. So, financial muscle matters. I'm not sure if India would be willing to put up $8 billion. They may probably not engage in all the projects offered, or may go one at a time.

My country had recently signed a transit agreement with India:
Boost to road, rail, sea connectivity: India gets access to transit routes through Bangladesh - The Economic Times
India to give $2b in low-cost loans | The Daily Star

Initially, the total infrastructure required for the transit was $7 billion:
'Bangladesh needs to invest $7 bn in transit facilities' - Yahoo News Singapore
Transit to India

That was way back in 2011. That value is higher now. No one had any idea as to who would finance such a project. And if Bangladesh paid for that infrastructure, what returns would come from it? I'm not even sure if India even has that kind of financing capability.

The Indians are now doing it step by step.

Arranging loans from overseas financial institutions like IFC, WB or any big FI are possible, but they may be complex and most certainly costly.

Regional connectivity would always have security concerns for the countries involved. And they are legitimate concerns!

I think that if Iran and India agree on a contract which would state that none of those facilities would be used to threaten Pakistan's security, the plan is very feasible for Pakistan.

And for that to happen, I believe a pro-active approach from Pakistan with Iran would be necessary while having common security interests at the same time. That way, both India and Pakistan can enjoy the fruits of trade and investment with Iran on their own terms.
 
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However, as of now Pakistan is playing a drastic role in creating peace in Afghanistan, the ball is in your court now.

Talibans are still a factor in Afghanistan and are even kidnapping Tajikistan border guards which has resulted in Tajiks offering base to India. Thanks to short sighted policies by ISI in Afghanistan we have lost friends in Central Asia.
 
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Lets finish the damn gas pipe line project first and than see where it takes us. Its being ages since that project was started and our leaders known for looking out every countries interest but Pakistan, made sure no progress was made on this vital project from our side even when Iran has completed all its work from their side and even offered loan or aid ( no sure) to complete Pakistan's side as well. We did not capitalize on the situation, blame is on us.
Besides If India could work out a deal with the west particularly the US thus not affecting its oil imports, why couldn't Pakistan? That just shows how weak and pathetic our foreign policy is.

Even now after the Iran nuclear deal, i have serious doubts about this house of Saud slave we have for a PM to actually take an initiative and get this thing done.
 
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China is investing more than $40 billions in Gwadar and you are concerned about $8 billions? Is it too much for such an important project? Don't you see it's a bit hypocritical to look at it this way? Bigger role means allowing more investment!! Please do not judge based on hypothetical creations.



This is what happens when you believe anything you read on internet dear.

Iran's constitution forbids any form of foreign military presence and base on Iranian soil, be it India, Russia, Pakistan, Americans or Martians.

Not 40 billion in Gwadar, but 40 billion throughout the country. I believe the total investment in Gwadar is 1 billion dollars (in two phases, currently phase 2 is under construction). They're going to invest in a mega highway from south to north, many power lines, power plants, railroads etc. Even completing the Pakistani part of the IP pipeline:)

It is Pakistan that has conducted proxy warfare by arming Talibans in Afghanistan resulting in death of nearly million people. Pakistan should have joined with Iran, Turkemenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to bring peace in Afghanistan. The attacks on Iranian border guards is indication that Pakistan is either unwilling or unable to control militancy in Balochistan. The Shamsi airbase must be fully under Pakistan sovereignty and UAE must vacate that base.

Iran can defend itself against drug smugglers, but I hope China's huge investments in that region will mean Pakistan has to secure the area. The new pipeline will also be their target, and it's vital for Pakistan. So I hope Pakistan can secure the region.
 
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So, my dear Pakistanis, I'll get down to the nuts and bolts, without any introduction.

As you all know, after the nuclear deal (let's assume it materializes without any problems and that a next hawkish U.S president won't sabotage it which is unlikely), any obstacle in the way of Iran and Pakistan improving their economic relations will be removed, most importantly, the long awaited, and long delayed IP pipeline.

But the pipeline is only a part of the game, and there is a much broader scope and much more potential in economic relations: Given that Pakistan's Arab allies don't sabotage a pipeline or 'punish' Pakistan for cooperating with Iran, obviously, without any long term alternative for energy hungry Pakistan, let's imagine this pipeline is completed. There is tremendous potential in Iran's Sistan and Baluchestan province and Pakistan's Baluchestan. With Gwadar and Chabahar development speeding up, the whole area can witness huge economic boom, and in an ideal world, Gwadar and Chabahar Twin Ports, can make Dubai look like a walk in a park, considering their much much more strategic location compared to Dubai, which is what it is, simply because there was no serious rivalry, and of course, huge foreign investment.

Let's not consider these 2 ports as rivals for a second, but an opportunity, to develop an already underdeveloped region and to make up for at least some of the suffering that people in this region have gone through in decades.

I understand some Pakistanis may have some reservations about India using the port, but let's see, for once, the brighter side of the story, without any conspiracy theories, like, India wants to attack Pakistan from this port, wants to conquer Pakistan's Baluchestan, etc. Let's simply see it, as an opportunity, for developing India, who wants to increase its economic interest in Central Asia, like every other country. You know, this port is more important for Iran itself, than it is, for India, since it is our only oceanic port, and it can become the 'Shanghai of Iran'. So even if there is any truth to those conspiracies (which is very unlikely), Iran will never allow that to happen, since it will directly harm our interests, before it harms Pakistan.

Of course, this port will not be 'exclusively' used by India, there is much more than that. The whole Pakistani-Indian standoff over the Kashmir issue can be left behind the doors, in this very specific case, because this is a game that can have no losers, but all winners: Iran, Pakistan, India, China (and in the future, perhaps, the whole world).

IP pipeline is not the whole potential, but it can be a foundation, on which we can start building more and more. The most important requirement, is the political resolve by Indian and Pakistani officials, they should decide whether they want to chase each other and harm each other for eternity, or at least, in a very rare but positive move, they can both be winners.


Now putting India aside, Iran and Pakistan, among 2 most powerful Muslim countries, not only militarily, but most importantly, in terms of human resources and 'brains', which is the most influential factor, in development of a nation, can go much further than this state of relations, which is unfortunately, even behind the normal situation.

There is a very important factor: Unlike many countries in ME, Iran and Pakistan do not have any unsolvable issues, like border disputes, or ethnic and racial tensions, etc. Needless to say, we have had thousands of years of historical relations with each other, and we are from the same culture, and have been parts of the same empires for hundreds of years. Just look at Urdu language as an example and its proximity to Persian, nothing like this happens unless there is very strong shared history. The most detrimental force that is holding back Iran and Pakistan, ironically, are bunch of barefoot, foreign supported terrorists that are harming both countries, not just one. And this is absolutely nothing that can not be dealt with, it requires 2 things:

1- Cutting the sources of funds and arms, wherever they are coming from, which we all know somehow, and having a broad cooperation in countering terror activities. I know this has not happened yet, but maybe, the need for development of the area, can leave us with no other choice to cooperate in terms of military, joint operations and intelligence sharing. I know some bitter things have happened between us, but both sides are to blame, if we set aside our nationalistic stances for a moment.

2- I believe in the theory that says (my own theory :P), where the prosperity (development, investment and strong economic atmosphere) comes from a door, backwardness and terrorism will go out from the other.

Now take note that, both of the above factors, at the same time, are needed to solve the issue and only one approach doesn't work.

Iran can ensure energy security for Western and southwestern areas of Pakistan. One of the main obstacles for Pakistan in the path of development, is energy shortages, so, as a short term or maybe middle term solution, we can greatly help Pakistan in this area.

The economic relations between the countries sees a huge potential ahead, the most important factor is, we are neighbors, and before that, we are brothers from the same culture,history, linguistics and values. There was never a Sunni-Shia tension in Iran-Pakistan relations (we were the first to recognize Pakistan as a sovereign nation) and the whole terrorism we are seeing today in Pakistan and in Baluchistan, is from a virus that was brought to Pakistan from outside. Of course Pakistani previous leaders are greatly at fault. Had they only 1/10th of the truly beloved and great leader, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, in them, Pakistan would never be like this today. But it is nothing that can not be vaccinated, this virus can be eliminated, as soon as you 'decide' to completely eradicate the sources of infection in your country, those who are preaching nothing but hate and intolerance.

Neither Iran nor Pakistan deserve the current status quo, no matter how much mistakes we have had in the past. There are also long term opportunities (which can become a short term one if there is the will) that I didn't explain, like free trade agreements, joint free trade zones in Chabahar-Gwadar (Chabahar is already a free trade zone in Iran), an ecomoic corridor between Pakistan-Iran-Turkey, defense cooperation, joint military drills, and many other things.
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At the end, I ask Pakistani members (and also Iranians) to share their opinions and analysis about the future of Iran-Pakistan relations, in the post sanctions era.

@Irfan Baloch @Horus @Jungibaaz @WebMaster @Oscar @waz @Atanz @haviZsultan @beast89 @HAIDER @farhan_9909 @Desert Fox @DESERT FIGHTER @Peaceful Civilian @Jaanbaz @Ghareeb_Da_Baal @RAMPAGE @pakdefender @cb4 @Kharral @Donatello @Arsalan @WAJsal @Metanoia @LoveIcon
@Daneshmand @haman10 @rahi2357 @The SiLent crY @scythian500 @Arminkh

And any other whom I may have forgot.
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Please keep the thread clean from any hate contest or a troll war and let's share our disagreements in a civilized manner.

Sorry for not contributing. This subject is of enormous interest to me and I have been doing some background reading. When finished I will reply. In the meantime Eid Mubarek to you and your family.
 
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Sorry for not contributing. This subject is of enormous interest to me and I have been doing some background reading. When finished I will reply. In the meantime Eid Mubarek to you and your family.
Thanks bro, Eid Mubarak to you and your family too. :)
 
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